Methodological and empirical flaws in the design and application of simple climate-economy models

Climatic Change

Volumn 81, Issue 2, 2007, Pages 161-185

  Fussel H M ^a,b  

^a STANFORD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CARBON DIOXIDE; ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL EFFECTS; ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING; MATHEMATICAL MODELS;

CLIMATE PARAMETERS; SOCIAL WELFARE;

CLIMATOLOGY;

ABATEMENT COST; CARBON SEQUESTRATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; NATURE-SOCIETY RELATIONS; WELFARE IMPACT;

EID: 33847402189     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-9154-y     Document Type: Article

References (80)

1. Allen MR, Stott PA, Mitchell JFB, Schnur R, Delworth TL (2000) Quantfifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change. Nature 407:617-620
2. Arrow KJ (1951) Social choice and individual values. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press
3. Arrow KJ, Cline WR, Mäler K-G, Munasinghe M, Squitieri R, Stiglitz JE (1996) Intertemporal equity, discounting, and economic efficiency. In: Bruce JP, Lee H, Haites EF (eds) Climate Change 1995: Economic and social dimensions of climate change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, Chapter 4
4. Arrow KJ, Lind RC (1970) Uncertainty and the evaluation of public investment decisions. American Economic Review 60:364-378
5. Azar C, Lindgren K (2003) Catastrophic events and stochastic cost-benefit analysis of climate change. Climatic Change 56:245-255
6. Bosetti V, Gilotte L (2005) Carbon capture and sequestration: how much does this uncertain option affect near-term policy choices?. Nota di Lavoro 86.2005, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano, Italy
7. Bruckner T, Zickfeld K (2006) Low risk emissions corridors for safeguarding the atlantic thermohaline circulation. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. (forthcoming)
8. Buonanno P, Carraro C, Galeotti M (2003) Endogenous technological change and the costs of Kyoto. Resource and Energy Economics 25:11-34
9. Chapman D, Suri V, Hall SG (1995) Rolling DICE for the Future of the Planet. Contemporary Economic Policy 13:1-9
10. Cline WR (1992) The economics of global warming. Washington, CD: Institute for International Economics
11. Coble CR, Murray EG, Rice DR (1987) Earth Science. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall
12. Courtois P (2004) The status of integrated assessment in climate policy making: An overview of inconsistencies underlying response functions. Environmental Science & Policy 7:69-75
13. Cubasch U, Meehl GA, Boer GJ, Stouffer RJ, Dix M, Noda A, Senior CA, Raper S, Yap KS (2001) Projections of future climate change. In: Climate Change 2001. The Scientific Basis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Chapter 9
14. Davidson MD (2006) A social discount rate for climate damage to future generations based on regulatory law. Climatic Change 76:55-72
15. de Boyer Mont egut C, Madec G, Fischer AS, Lazar A, Iudicone D (2004) Mixed layer depth over the global ocean: An examinaton of profile data and a profile-based climatology. Journal of Geophysical Research 109:C12003
16. DeCanio SJ (2003) Economic Models of Climate Change. New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan
17. Edgeworth FY (1888) Some new methods of measuring variations in general prices. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 51:346-368
18. Fankhauser S, Tol RSJ (2005) On climate change and economic growth. Resource and Energy Economics 27:1-17
19. Forest CE, Stone PH, Sokolov AP, Allen MR, Webster MD (2002) Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations. Science 295:113-117
20. Füssel H-M (2006) Social welfare functions in global climate-economy models: methodological inconsistencies and their policy implications. Paper accepted for presentation at the Third World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists, Kyoto (Japan) 3-7 July 2006. Available at http://www.webmeets.com/files/papers/ERE/WC3/952/review_swf_twc.pdf
21. Gjerde J, Grepperud S, Kverndokk S (1998) Optimal climate policy under the possibility of a catastrophe. Discussion Paper 209, Research Department of Statistics Norway. Available at http://ideas.repec.org/p/ssb/dispap/209.html
22. Gowdy J (2005) Toward a new welfare economics for sustainability. Ecological Economics 53:211-222
23. 2 concentration. Geophysical Research Letters 32:L12703
24. Grubb N, Chapuis T, Ha-Duong M (1995) The economics of changing course: implications of adaptability and inertia for optimal climate policy. Energy Policy 23:417-431
25. Ha-Duong M (2001) Transparency and control in engineering integrated assessment models. Integrated Assessment 2:209-218
26. Hall DC, Behl RJ (2006) Integrating economic analysis and the science of climate instability. Ecological Economics 57:442-465
27. Heal G (1997) Discounting and climate change. Climatic Change 37:335-343
28. Howarth RB (2001) Intertemporal social choice and climate stabilization. International Journal of of Environment and Pollution 15:386-405
29. Howarth RB (2003) Discounting and uncertainty in climate change policy Analysis. Land Economics 79:369-381
30. Jevons WS (1865) Variations of prices and the value of currency since 1762. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 28:294-325
31. Kaufmann RK (1997) Assessing the DICE model: uncertainty associated with the emission and retention of greenhouse gases. Climatic Change 35:435-448
32. Keller K, Bolker BM, Bradford DF (2004) Uncertain climate thresholds and optimal economic growth. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 48:723-741
33. Keller K, Hall M, Kim S-R, Bradford DF, Oppenheimer M (2005) Avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Climatic Change 73:227-238
34. Keller K, Tan K, Morel FMM, Bradford DF (2000) Preserving the ocean circulation: implications for climate policy. Climatic Change 47:17-43
35. 2 stabilization profiles. Geophysical Research Letters 32:L20707
36. Knutti R, Stocker TF, Joos F, Plattner G-K (2002) Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles. Nature 416:719-723
37. Kolstad CD (1998) Integrated assessment modeling of climate change. In: Nordhaus, WD. (ed) Economics and policy issues in climate change. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future, Chapt9, pp. 263-304. Includes comments by Weyant, JP and Edmonds, J
38. Koopmans T (1960) Stational ordinal utility and impatience. Econometrica 28:287-309
39. Lind RC (1995) Intergenerational equity, discounting, and the role of cost-benefit analysis in evaluating global climate policy. Energy Policy 23:379-389
40. Lind RC, Arrow KC, Corey GR, Dasgupta P, Sen AK, Stauffer T, Stiglitz JE, Stockfisch JA, Wilson R (1982) Discounting for time and risk in energy policy. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future
41. Lind RC, Schuler RE (1998) Equity and discounting in climate-change decisions. In: Nordhaus, WD (ed) Economics and policy issues in climate change. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future, Chapt. 3, pp. 59-96
42. Mastrandrea MD, Schneider SH (2001) Integrated assessment of abrupt climatic changes. Climate Policy 1:433-449
43. Mastrandrea MD, Schneider SH (2004) Probabilistic integrated assessment of dangerous Climate Change. Science 304:571-575
44. Meinshausen M (2006) What does a 2°C target mean for greenhouse gas concentrations? A brief analysis based on multi-gas emission pathways and several climate sensitivity uncertainty estimates. In: HJ. Schellnhuber, Cramer W, Nakicenovic N, Wigley T, Yohe G (eds) Avoiding dangerous climate change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, Chapt28, pp. 265-279
45. Metz B, Davidson O, Swart R, Pan J (eds) (2001) Climate change 2001: Mitigation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
46. Moles CG, Banga JR, Keller K (2004) Solving nonconvex climate control problems: pitfalls and algorithm performances. Applied Soft Computing 5:35-44
47. Moss RH, Schneider SH (2000) Uncertainties in the IPCC TAR: Recommendations to lead authors for more consistent assessment and reporting. In: Pachauri R, Taniguchi T, Tanaka K (eds) Guidance Papers on the Cross-cutting Issues of the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC. Geneva: World Meteorological Organization, pp. 33-51
48. Nakicenovic N, Swart R (eds): (2000) Emissions scenarios. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
49. Newell RG, Pizer WA (2004) Uncertain discount rates in climate policy analysis. Energy Policy 32:519-529
50. Nordhaus W, Boyer J (1999) Appendix C: Computer code for DICE-98 model. In: Warming the world: economics models of global warming (Internet edition). Available on http://www.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/homepage/appendix%20c%20121898. PDF (accessed on 11 Dec 2005)
51. Nordhaus WD (1992) Rolling the 'DICE': an optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases. Science 258:1315-1319
52. Nordhaus WD (1993) Optimal greenhouse-gas reductions and tax policy in the DICE model. American Economic Review 83:313-317
53. Nordhaus WD (1994) Managing the global commons. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
54. Nordhaus WD (1997) Discounting in economics and climate change. Climatic Change 37:315-328
55. Nordhaus WD (1999) Modeling induced innovation in climate-change policy. In: Grübler A, Nakicenovic N, Nordhaus WD (eds) Technological change and the environment. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future, Chapter 8
56. Nordhaus WD (2001a) Documentation of the DICE-99 Excel spreadsheet. Available at http://www.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/homepage/dice99.doc
57. Nordhaus WD (2001b) Global warming economics. Science 294:1283-1284
58. Nordhaus WD, Boyer J (2000) Warming the world: economic models of global warming. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
59. Nordhaus WD, Popp D (1997) What is the value of scientific knowledge? An application to global warming using the PRICE model. The Energy Journal 18:1-45
60. Nordhaus WD, Yang Z (1996) Optimal greenhouse-gas reductions and tax policy in the DICE model. American Economic Review 86:741-765
61. Pearce DW (ed.): (1986) The MIT dictionary of modern economics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, third edition
62. Popp D (2004) ENTICE: Endogenous technological change in the DICE model of global warming. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 48:742-768
63. Portney PR, Weyant JP (eds) (1999) Discounting and intergenerational equity. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future
64. Roughgarden T, Schneider SH (1999) Climate change policy: quantifying uncertainties for damages and optimal carbon taxes. Energy Policy 27:415-429
65. 2-induced climate change. Journal of Climate 3:1297-1315
66. Schlesinger ME, Yin J, Yohe G, Andronova NG, Malyshev S, Li B (2006) Assessing the risk of a collapse of the atlantic thermohaline circulation. In: Schellnhuber HJ, Cramer W, Nakicenovic N, Wigley T, Yohe G (eds) Avoiding dangerous climate change. Cambridge, UK, pp 37-47, Cambridge University Press
67. 2 and climate: importance of the transient response. Journal of Geophysical Research 86(C4):3135-3147
68. 2 emissions. Energy Policy 25:491-500
69. Smirnov A (2005) Attainability analysis of the DICE model. Interim Report IR-05-000, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
70. Spash CL (ed.): (2002) Greenhouse economics: values and ethics. New York: Routledge
71. Stott PA, Kettleborough JA (2002) Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise. Nature 416:723-726
72. Taylor C (1982) The diversity of goods. In: Sen A, Williams B (eds) Utilitarianism and beyond. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, pp 129-144
73. Tol RSJ (1999) Time discounting and optimal emission reduction: an application of FUND. Climatic Change 41:351-362
74. Tol RSJ (2003) Is the uncertainty about climate change too large for expected cost-benefit analysis?. Climatic Change 56:265-289
75. Toth FL (2000) Intergenerational equity and discounting. Integrated Assessment 1:127-136
76. Webster M, Forest C, Reilly J, Babiker M, Kicklighter D, Mayer M, Prinn R, Sarofim M, Sokolov A, Stone P, Wang C (2003) Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response. Climatic Change 61:295-320
77. Wigley TML, Raper SCB (2001) Interpretation of high projections for global-meanwarming. Science 293:451-454
78. Yohe G, Andronova N, Schlesinger M (2004) To hedge or not against an uncertain climate future. Science 306:416-417. (Includes Supporting Online Material)
79. Yohe G, Schlesinger ME, Andronova NG (2006) Reducing the risk of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. The Integrated Assessment Journal 6:57-73
80. Yohe GW (2003) More trouble for cost-benefit analysis. An Editorial Comment. Climatic Change 56:235-244.