Things fall apart: The endgame dynamics of internal wars

Third World Quarterly

Volumn 28, Issue 2, 2007, Pages 321-367

  McCormick, Gordon H ^a   Horton, Steven B ^b   Harrison, Lauren A ^a  

^a NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL   (United States)

^b UNITED STATES MILITARY ACADEMY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS; GAME THEORY; WAR;

EID: 33847374787     PISSN: 01436597     EISSN: 13602241     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/01436590601153721     Document Type: Article

References (147)

1. Internal War Database, Department of Defense Analysis, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, 2006.
2. M Van Creveld, The Transformation of War, New York: Free Press, 1991.
3. See, for example, BF Walter, Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil Wars, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2002
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6. BF Walter & J Snyder (eds), Civil Wars, Insecurity, and Intervention, New York: Columbia University Press, 1999
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9. R Licklider, 'The consequences of negotiated settlements in civil wars, 1945-1993', American Politica Science Review, 89 (3), 1995.
10. Internal War Database.
11. Zartman, Elusive Peace, p 3.
12. GH McCormick, 'A systems model of insurgency', paper presented to the Insurgency Board of Experts, Department of Defense Analysis, Naval Postgraduate School, 22 June 2005.
13. Mao Tse-Tung, 'Guerrilla warfare', in SB Grffith II (trans), Mao Tse-Tung on Guerrilla Warfare, Baltimore, MD: Nautical and Aviation Publishing Company of America, 1961, p 117.
14. Mao Tse-Tung, 'Problems of strategy in guerrilla war against Japan', Selected Military Writings of Mao Tse-Tung, Beijing: Foreign Languages Press, 1967.
15. JG Taylor, Lanchester Models of Warfare, Volume I, Arlington, VA: Operations Research Society of America, 1983, p 254.
16. McCormick, 'A systems model of insurgency'.
17. GH McCormick & F Giordano, 'The dynamics of insurgency', paper presented to the Insurgency Board of Experts, Department of Defense Analysis, Naval Postgraduate School, June 2002
18. McCormick, 'A systems model of insurgency'.
19. N Leites & C Wolf, Jr, Rebellion and Authority: An Analytic Essay on Insurgent Conflicts, RAND Report R-462-ARPA, Chicago, IL: Markham Publishing, 1970, p 68.
20. McCormick & Giordano, 'The dynamics of insurgency'.
21. For an enduring discussion of why this is so often true, see AJR Mack, 'Why big nations lose small wars: The politics of asymmetric conflict', World Politics, 27 (2), 1975, pp 175-200.
22. AL Barabási & R Albert, 'Emergence of scaling in random networks', Science, 286, 1999, pp 509-512.
23. See, for example, D della Porta, 'Introduction: On individual motivations in underground political organizations', International Social Movement Research, Vol 4, Social Movements and Violence: Participation in Underground Organizations, Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, 1992, p 3-28.
24. See, for example, the discussion by Samuel Huntington in SP Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1968.
25. M Buchanan, Nexus: Small Worlds and the Groundbreaking Science of Networks, New York: WW Norton, 2002.
26. GH McCormick & G Owen, 'Security and coordination in a clandestine organization', Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 31, 2000, pp 175-192.
27. R Albert, H Jeong & A Barabási, 'Error and attack tolerance of complex networks', Nature, 406, 2000, pp 378-381; and
28. P Ball, Critical Mass: How One Thing Leads to Another, New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2004, p 385.
29. M Van Creveld, Command in War, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1985, p 274.
30. BJ Kerkvliet, The Huk Rebellion: A Study of Peasant Revolt in the Philippines, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1977, p 82.
31. Ibid, p 82
32. LE Cable, Confict of Myths, New York: New York University Press, 1988, p 45; and
33. C Bohannon, 'The communist insurgency in the Philippines: The Hukbalahap, 1942-1955', in TN Dupuy, Isolating the Guerrilla, Washington, DC: Historical Evaluation and Research Organization, 1966, p 120.
34. Bohannon, 'The communist insurgency in the Philippines', p 130; and
35. Kerkvliet, The Huk Rebellion, p 106.
36. Kerkvliet, The Huk Rebellion, pp 128-135
37. RR Smith, The Hukbalahap Insurgency: Economic, Political, and Military Factors, Washington, DC: Office of the Chief of Military History, Dept of the Army, 1963, p 64
38. RB Asprey, War in the Shadows: The Guerrilla in History, Volume II, New York: Doubleday, 1975, p 747; and
39. Bohannon, 'The communist insurgency in the Philippines', p 122.
40. Kerkvliet, The Huk Rebellion, p 169
41. Cable, Confict of Myths, p 150; and
42. Smith, The Hukbalahap Insurgency, pp 67, 71.
43. Asprey, War in the Shadows, p 749
44. Smith, The Hukbalahap Insurgency, p 63; and
45. Cable, Confict of Myths, p 49.
46. Kerkvliet, The Huk Rebellion, p 189.
47. Ibid, p 189
48. and Smith, The Hukbalahap Insurgency, pp 70-73.
49. Smith, The Hukbalahap Insurgency, pp 73-76
50. and Kerkvliet, The Huk Rebellion, pp 195-196, 200-203.
51. Bohannon, 'The communist insurgency in the Philippines', p 126
52. Kerkvliet, The Huk Rebellion, p 203; and
53. Cable, Confict of Myths, p 50.
54. Asprey, War in the Shadows, p 755.
55. Bohannon, 'The communist insurgency in the Philippines', p 126
56. Kerkvliet, The Huk Rebellion, pp 187-218; and
57. Smith, The Hukbalahap Insurgency, p 79.
58. Bohannon, 'The communist insurgency in the Philippines', pp 123-127.
59. Ibid, pp 123-127; and
60. Cable, Conflict of Myths, p 52.
61. Kerkvliet, The Huk Rebellion, p 242
62. Smith, The Hukbalahap Insurgency, p 100; and
63. Cable, Conflict of Myths, pp 52-54.
64. Undergrounds in Insurgent, Revolutionary, and Resistance Warfare, Washington, DC: Special Operations Research Office, American University, 1963, p 326; and
65. Cable, Conflict of Myths, p 55.
66. Smith, The Hukbalahap Insurgency, p 121.
67. Cable, Conflict of Myths, pp 58-59.
68. Smith, The Hukbalahap Insurgency, pp 105-07; and
69. Undergrounds in Insurgent, Revolutionary, and Resistance Warfare, p 327.
70. Undergrounds in Insurgent, Revolutionary, and Resistance Warfare, p 325.
71. Kerkvliet, The Huk Rebellion, p 238.
72. Bohannon, 'The communist insurgency in the Philippines', pp 129-143.
73. Cable, Conflict of Myths, pp 57-60.
74. Kerkvliet, The Huk Rebellion, pp 246-247; and
75. Undergrounds in Insurgent, Revolutionary, and Resistance Warfare, p 329.
76. Cable, Conflict of Myths, p 60; and
77. Kerkvliet, The Huk Rebellion, pp 236-237.
78. Smith, The Hukbalahap Insurgency, p 124; and
79. Cable, Conflict of Myths, p 61.
80. Kerkvliet, The Huk Rebellion, pp 208-209, 238-239.
81. Ibid, pp 168, 235-247; and
82. Cable, Conflict of Myths, p 62.
83. Smith, The Hukbalahap Insurgency, pp 115-125; and
84. and Bohannon, 'The communist insurgency in the Philippines', p 129.
85. Bohannon, 'The communist insurgency in the Philippines', p 129.
86. Harvey Averch & John Koehler, 'The Huk rebellion in the Philippines: quantitative approaches', RAND Report RM-6254-ARPA, 1970, p 2
87. and Kerkvliet, The Huk Rebellion, p 247.
88. P Jureidini, NA La Charite, BH Cooper & WA Lybrand, 'The Cuban revolution: 1953-1959', in Casebook on Insurgency and Revolutionary Warfare: Twenty-Three Summary Accounts, Washington, DC: Special Operations Research Office, American University, 1962, pp 167, 179.
89. T Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolutionaries in Latin America: A Comparative Study of Insurgents and Regimes since 1965, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1992, p 16; and
90. Jureidini et al, 'The Cuban revolution', p 167.
91. Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolutionaries in Latin America, p 16.
92. GA Geyer, Guerrilla Prince: The Untold Story of Fidel Castro, Kansas City, MO: Andrews and
93. McMeel, 1991, p 141; and
94. JL Anderson, Che Guevara: A Revolutionary Life, New York: Grove Press, 1997, p 184.
95. Jureidini et al, 'The Cuban revolution', pp 168-179; and
96. L Huberman & PM Sweezy, Cuba: Anatomy of a Revolution, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1961, p 53. It is interesting to note that, even at this late date, there is considerable disagreement concerning just how large the Granma actually was. Size estimates range from 38 feet to over 60 feet. Perhaps someone should ask the 'Captain' while we still have time to do so.
97. RL Bonachea & M San Martín, The Cuban Insurrection: 1952-1959, New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books, 1974, p 85; and
98. Jureidini et al, 'The Cuban revolution', p179.
99. Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolutionaries in Latin America, p 141.
100. Jureidini et al, 'The Cuban revolution', p 174; and
101. Bonachea & San Martiacute;n, The Cuban Insurrection, p 39.
102. Bonachea & San Martín, The Cuban Insurrection, pp 39-40.
103. Jureidini et al, 'The Cuban revolution', p 181.
104. Ibid, pp 181-184.
105. Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolutionaries in Latin America, p 25; and
106. Bonachea & San Martín, The Cuban Insurrection, pp 93-95.
107. Bonachea & San Martín, The Cuban Insurrection, pp 97-98; and
108. DEH Russell, Rebellion, Revolution, and Armed Force: A Comparative Study of Fifteen Countries with Special Emphasis on Cuba and South Africa, New York: Academic Press, 1974, pp 22-23.
109. Bonachea & San Martiacute;n, The Cuban Insurrection, pp 187-191, 223.
110. T Hughes, Cuba: The Pursuit of Freedom, New York: Harper and Row, 1971, p 996.
111. Jureidini et al, 'The Cuban revolution', p 184.
112. Bonachea & San Martín, The Cuban Insurrection, p 229.
113. Ibid, pp 223-229; and
114. Hughes, Cuba, pp 996-997.
115. Hughes, Cuba, pp 997-998, 1016.
116. Bonachea & San Martin, The Cuban Insurrection, p 263.
117. Ibid, pp 238-240, 266-271.
118. Hughes, Cuba, p 1005.
119. Bonachea & San Martin, The Cuban Insurrection, p 275.
120. Hughes, Cuba, pp 1013-1017.
121. Bonachea & San Martin, The Cuban Insurrection, pp 263-265; and
122. Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolutionaries in South America, p 191.
123. N Macaulay, 'The Cuban rebel army: A numerical survey', Hispanic American Historical Review, 58 (2), 1978; and
124. M Perez-Stable, The Cuban Revolution: Origins, Course, and Legacy, New York: Oxford University Press, 1993, p 62.
125. Macaulay, 'The Cuban rebel army', p 291; and
126. Russell, Rebellion, Revolution and Armed Force, p 24.
127. Bonachea & San Martin, The Cuban Insurrection, p 288; and
128. Hughes, Cuba, p 1014.
129. Hughes, Cuba, pp 1014-1019.
130. Ibid, pp 1018-1019.
131. Bonachea & San Martin, The Cuban Insurrection, pp 294-300.
132. Hughes, Cuba, p 1024.
133. Bonachea & San Martin, The Cuban Insurrection, pp 311-313
134. Hughes, Cuba, pp 1028-1029; and
135. F Batista, Cuba Betrayed, New York: Vantage Press, 1962, p 137.
136. Bonachea & San Martin, The Cuban Insurrection, pp 315-325.
137. Jureidini et al, 'The Cuban revolution', p 187.
138. Based on McCormick & Giordano, 'The dynamics of insurgency'.
139. See, for example, F Buckley & M Lewinter, A Friendly Introduction to Graph Theory, Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 2003; and
140. R Diestel, Graph Theory, New York: Springer Verlag, 1992.
141. R Albert, H Jeong & A Barabási, 'Error and attack tolerance of complex networks', pp 378-381, and
142. D Callaway, M Newman, S Strogatz & D Watts, 'Network robustness and fragility: Percolation on 366 random graphs', Physical Review Letters, 85, 2000, pp 5468-5471; and
143. M Girvan & M Newman, 'Community structure in social and biological networks', Proceedings of the National Academy of Science Online, 99, 2002, pp 8271-8276; and
144. M Newman & J Park, 'Why social networks are different from other types of networks', Physical Review E, 68, 2003.
145. Albert et al, 'Network robustness and fragility', pp 378-381.
146. Ibid.
147. McCormick & Owen, 'Security and coordination in a clandestine organization', pp 175-92.