Risk assessment of the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L), in New Zealand based on phenology modelling

International Journal of Biometeorology

Volumn 51, Issue 4, 2007, Pages 295-305

  Pitt, Joel Peter William ^a   Régnière, Jacques ^b   Worner, Sue ^a  

^a LINCOLN UNIVERSITY   (New Zealand)

^b LAURENTIAN FORESTRY CENTRE   (Canada)

Author keywords

Canadian Maritimes; Gypsy moth; Invasive insect; Lymantria; New Zealand; Phenology model; Potential distribution

Indexed keywords

ADAPTATION; ANIMAL; ARTICLE; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; CLIMATE; EGG LAYING; FEMALE; GROWTH, DEVELOPMENT AND AGING; MALE; MOTH; NEW ZEALAND; PHYSIOLOGY; RISK ASSESSMENT; SEASON;

ADAPTATION, PHYSIOLOGICAL; ANIMALS; CLIMATE; FEMALE; MALE; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; MOTHS; NEW ZEALAND; OVIPOSITION; RISK ASSESSMENT; SEASONS;

HEXAPODA; LEPIDOPTERA; LYMANTRIA; LYMANTRIA DISPAR;

EID: 33847373404     PISSN: 00207128     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-006-0066-3     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Allen JC (1976) A modified sine wave method for calculating degree days. Environ Entomol 5:388-396
2. Benoit P, Lachance D (1990) Gypsy moth in Canada: behavior and control. Forestry Canada. Canadian Forest Service, 351 St. Joseph Blvd., Hull, Quebec. K1A 1G5. Information Report DPC-X-32
3. Cowley J, Bain J, Walsh P, Harte R, Baker R, Hill C, Whyte C, Barber C (1993) Pest Risk Assessment for Asian Gypsy Moth. Lymantria dispar L. (Lepidoptera:Lymantriidae). New Zealand Forest Research Institute
4. Cressie N (1993) Statistics for spatial data. Wiley, New York
5. Dukes JS, Mooney HA (1999) Does global change increase the success of biological invaders? Trends Ecol Evol 14:135-139
6. Dunlap T (1980) The gypsy moth. A study in science and public policy. J For Hist 24:116-126
7. Ferguson D (1978) The Moths of North America north of Mexico including Greenland. Fascicle. E.W. Classey Ltd and the Wedge Entomological Research Foundation, pp 90-95
8. Garner KJ, Slavicek JM (1996) Identification and characterisation of a RAPD-PCR marker for distinguishing Asian and North American gypsy moths. Insect Mol Biol 5:81-91
9. Glare TG, Walsh PJ, Barlow ND (1997) Strategies for the eradication or control of gypsy moth in New Zealand. AgResearch Internal Report
10. Gray DR (2004) The gypsy moth life stage model: landscape-wide estimates of gypsy moth establishment using a multi-generational phenology model. Ecol Model 176:155-171
11. Gray DR, Logan JA, Ravlin FW, Carlson JA (1991) Toward a model of gypsy moth phenology: using respiration rates of individual eggs to determine temperature-time requirements of prediapause development. Environ Ecol 20:1645-1652
12. Gray DR, Ravlin FW, Régnière J, Logan JA (1995) Further advances toward a model of gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar (L.)) egg phenology: Respiration rates and thermal responsiveness during diapause, and age-dependent developmental rates in postdiapause. J Insect Physiol 41:247-256
13. Gray DR, Ravlin FW, Braine JA (2001) Diapause in the gypsy moth: a model of inhibition and development. J Insect Physiol 47:173-184
14. Hoy MA (1977) Rapid response to selection for a nondiapausing gypsy moth. Science 196:1462-1463
15. Hurley JE, Magasi LP (1995) Forest pest conditions in the maritimes in 1994. Canadian Forest Service, Fredericton, NB, Information Report M-X-194E
16. Hurley JE, Magasi LP (1996) Forest pest conditions in the maritimes in 1995. Canadian Forest Service, Fredericton, NB, Information Report M-X-199E
17. Liebhold A, Gottschalk K, Muzika R, Montgomery M, Young R, O'Day K, Kelly B (1995) Suitability of north american tree species to the gypsy moth: a summary of field and laboratory tests. USDA General Technical Report NE-211. USDA, Forest Service, Delaware, OH
18. Liebhold A, Halverson J, Elmes G (1992) Gypsy moth invasion in North America: A quantitative analysis. J Biogeography 19:513- 520
19. Logan JA, Casagrande RA, Liebhold AM (1991) A modeling environment for simulation of gypsy moth larval phenology. Environ Entomol 20:1516-1525
20. Logan JA, Régnière J, Powell JA (2003) Assessing the impacts of global warming on forest pest dynamics. Front Ecol Environ 1:130-137
21. Logan J, Régnière J, Gray D, Munson A (2006) Risk assessment in face of a changing environment: Gypsy moth and climate change in Utah. Ecol Appl (in press)
22. Magasi LP (1991) Forest pest conditions in the maritimes in 1990. Canadian Forest Service, Fredericton, NB, Information Report M-X-178
23. Magasi LP (1992) Forest pest conditions in the maritimes in 1991. Canadian Forest Service, Fredericton, NB, Information Report M-X-181E
24. Magasi LP (1993) Forest pest conditions in the maritimes in 1992. Canadian Forest Service, Fredericton, NB, Information Report M-X-183E
25. Magasi LP, Hurley JE (1994) Forest pest conditions in the maritimes in 1994. Canadian Forest Service, Fredericton, NB, Information Report M-X-188E
26. Matsuki M, Kay M, Serin J, Floyd R, Scott JK (2001) Potential risk of accidental introduction of Asian gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) to Australasia: effects of climatic conditions and suitability of native plants. Agricult Forest Entomol 3:305-320
27. Ministry for the Environment (2004) Climate change effects and impacts assessment: A guidance manual for local government in New Zealand
28. Nealis VG, Erb S (1993) A sourcebook for management of the gypsy moth. Canadian Forestry Service, Sault Ste-Marie, ON. Catalogue No. Fo42-193/1993E
29. Régnière J (1996) A generalized approach to landscape-wide seasonal forecasting with temperature-driven simulation models. Environ Entomol 25:869-881
30. Régnière J (2006) Stochastic simulation of daily air temperature and precipitation from monthly normals in North America. Int J Biometeorology (in press)
31. Régnière J, Bolstad P (1994) Statistical simulation of daily air temperature patterns in eastern north america to forecast seasonal events in insect pest management. Environ Entomol 23:1368-1380
32. Régnière J, Nealis V (2002) Modelling seasonality of gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar, to evaluate probability of its persistance in novel environments. Can Entomol 134:805-824
33. Ross MG (2004) Response to a gypsy moth incursion within New Zealand. In: IUFRO conference, Hanmer, 2004. Biosecurity New Zealand, MAF
34. Sample BE, Butler L, Zivkovich C, Whitmore RC, Reardon R (1996) Effects of Bacillus thuringiensis berliner var. Kurstaki and defoliation by the gypsy moth [Lymantria dispar (L.) (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae)] on native arthropods in West Virginia. Can Entomol 128:573-592
35. Sharov AA, Leonard D, Liebhold AM, Roberts EA, Dickerson W (2002) Slow the spread: a national program to contain the gypsy moth. J Forestry 100:30-35
36. Sheehan KA (1992) Users guide for GMPHEN: Gypsy moth phenology model. General Technical Report NE-158. USDA Forest Service
37. Sutherst R, Maywald G, Yonow T, Stevens P (1999) CLIMEX: predicting the effects of climate on plants and animals. CSIRO Publishing, Collingwood, Australia
38. Wallner WE (1996) Invasion of the tree snatchers. Am Nurseryman, March:41-43
39. Walsh P (1993) Asian gypsy moth: the risk to New Zealand. N Z Forestry 38:31-43