The role of measurement uncertainties for the simulation of grassland net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in Europe

Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment

Volumn 121, Issue 1-2, 2007, Pages 175-185

  Gottschalk, P ^a   Wattenbach, M ^a   Neftel, A ^b   Fuhrer, J ^b   Jones, M ^c   Lanigan, G ^c   Davis, P ^c   Campbell, C ^d   Soussana, J F ^e   Smith, P ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ABERDEEN   (United Kingdom)

^b Eidg Forschungsanstalt fur Agrarokologie und Landbau   (Switzerland)

^c TRINITY COLLEGE DUBLIN   (Ireland)

^d CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY AND HYDROLOGY   (United Kingdom)

^e CEMAGREF   (France)

Author keywords

Ecosystem model; Grassland; Monte Carlo; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

ECOSYSTEM MODELING; GRASSLAND; MEASUREMENT METHOD; MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS; NET ECOSYSTEM EXCHANGE; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EURASIA; EUROPE;

EID: 33847289367     PISSN: 01678809     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.agee.2006.12.026     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. Ciais P., Reichstein M., Viovy N., Granier A., Ogee J., Allard V., Aubinet M., Buchmann N., Bernhofer C., Carrara A., Chevallier F., De Noblet N., Friend A.D., Friedlingstein P., Grunwald T., Heinesch B., Keronen P., Knohl A., Krinner G., Loustau D., Manca G., Matteucci G., Miglietta F., Ourcival J.M., Papale D., Pilegaard K., Rambal S., Seufert G., Soussana J.F., Sanz M.J., Schulze E.D., Vesala T., and Valentini R. Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003. Nature 437 (2005) 529-533
2. 2 flux measurements. Basic Appl. Ecol. 1 (2000) 177-188
3. Frank A.B., Sims P.L., Bradford J.A., Mielnick P.C., Dugas W.A., and Mayeux H.S. Carbon dioxide fluxes over three Great Plains grasslands. Environ. Pollut. 116 (2002) 397-403
4. Freibauer A. Regionalised inventory of biogenic greenhouse gas emissions from European agriculture. Eur. J. Agron. 19 (2003) 135-160
5. Freibauer A., Rounsevell M.D.A., Smith P., and Verhagen J. Carbon sequestration in the agricultural soils of Europe. Geoderma 122 (2004) 1-23
6. Hall J.W. Uncertainty-based sensitivity indices for imprecise probability distributions. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe. 91 (2006) 1443-1451
7. Hamby D.M. A review of techniques for parameter sensitivity analysis of environmental models. Environ. Monit. Assess. 32 (1994) 135-154
8. Hattermann F.F., Wattenbach M., Krysanova V., and Wechsung F. Runoff simulations on the macroscale with the ecohydrological model SWIM in the Elbe catchment-validation and uncertainty analysis. Hydrol. Process. 19 (2005) 693-714
9. Heath L.S., and Smith J.E. An assessment of uncertainty in forest carbon budget projections. Environ. Sci. Pol. 3 (2000) 73-82
10. IPCC, 2000. Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gp/english/.
11. ISO. Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurements (1995), International Organization for Standardization, Geneva p. 100
12. 2 emissions. Science 300 (2003) 1538-1542
13. Jones S.K., Rees R.M., Kosmas D., Ball B.C., and Skiba U.M. Carbon sequestration in a temperate grassland; management and climatic controls. Soil Use Manage. 22 (2006) 132-142
14. Kleijnen J.P.C. Sensitivity analysis and related analyses: a review of some statistical techniques. J. Stat. Comput. Simul. 57 (1997) 111-142
15. 2 exchanges of the terrestrial biosphere: process-based simulations and uncertainties. pp. 225-252.
16. McKay M.D., Beckman R.J., and Conover W.J. A comparison of three methods for selecting values of input variables in the analysis of output from a computer code. Technometrics 21 (1979) 239-245
17. Ogle S.M., Breidt F.J., Eve M.D., and Paustian K. Uncertainty in estimating land use and management impacts on soil organic carbon storage for US agricultural lands between 1982 and 1997. Global Change Biol. 9 (2003) 1521-1542
18. Ogle S.M., Conant R.T., and Paustian K. Deriving grassland management factors for a carbon accounting method developed by the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Environ. Manage. 33 (2004) 474-484
19. Ogle S.M., Breidt F.J., and Paustian K. Bias and variance in model results associated with spatial scaling of measurements for parameterization in regional assessments. Global Change Biol. 12 (2006) 516-523
20. Oren R., Hsieh C.-I., Stoy P., Albertson J., McCarthy H.R., Harrell P., and Katul G.G. Estimating the uncertainty in annual net ecosystem carbon exchange: spatial variation in turbulent fluxes and sampling errors in eddy-covariance measurements. Global Change Biol. 12 (2006) 883-896
21. Riedo M., Grub A., Rosset M., and Fuhrer J. A pasture simulation model for dry matter production, and fluxes of carbon, nitrogen, water and energy. Ecol. Model. 105 (1998) 141-183
22. 2 and to climate change. Ecol. Model. 134 (2000) 207-227
23. Riedo M., Milford C., Schmid M., and Sutton M.A. Coupling soil-plant-atmosphere exchange of ammonia with ecosystem functioning in grasslands. Ecol. Model. 158 (2002) 83-110
24. Saltelli A. Sensitivity Analysis (2000), John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, UK
25. Schmid M., Neftel A., Riedo M., and Fuhrer J. Process-based modelling of nitrous oxide emissions from different nitrogen sources in mown grassland. Nutr. Cycl. Agroecosyst. 60 (2001) 177-187
26. Schwager S.J., and Mikhailova E.A. Estimating variability in soil organic carbon storage using the method of statistical differentials. Soil Sci. 167 (2002) 194-200
27. Seneviratne S.I., Luthi D., Litschi M., and Schar C. Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nature 443 (2006) 205-209
28. Smith J.E., and Heath L.S. Identifying influences on model uncertainty: an application using a forest carbon budget model. Environ. Manage. 27 (2001) 253-267
29. Smith J., Smith P., Wattenbach M., Zaehle S., Hiederer R., Jones R.J.A., Montanarella L., Rounsevell M.D.A., Reginster I., and Ewert F. Projected changes in mineral soil carbon of European croplands and grasslands, 1990-2080. Global Change Biol. 11 (2005) 2141-2152
30. Soussana J.F., Loiseau P., Vuichard N., Ceschia E., Balesdent J., Chevallier T., and Arrouays D. Carbon cycling and sequestration opportunities in temperate grasslands. Soil Use Manage. 20 (2004) 219-230
31. Verbeeck H., Samson R., Verdonck F., and Lemeur R. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty of the forest carbon flux model FORUG: a Monte Carlo analysis. Tree Physiol. 26 (2006) 807-817
32. Vose D. Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide (2000), Wiley, New York
33. Vuichard, N., Ciais, P., Viovy, N., Ammann, C., Calanca, P., Clifton-Brown, J., Fuhrer, J., Jones, M., Martin, C., Soussana, J.F., 2007a. Estimating greenhouse gas fluxes of European grasslands with a process based model. Part 1. Model evaluation from in-situ measurements. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 21.
34. Vuichard, N., Ciais, P., Viovy, N., Calanca, P., Soussana, J.F., 2007b. Estimating the greenhouse gas fluxes of European Grasslands with a process based model. Part 2. Simulations at the continental level. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 21.
35. Wattenbach M., Gottschalk P., Hattermann F., Rachimow C., Flechsig M., and Smith P. A framework for assessing uncertainty in ecosystem models. Proceedings of the Third Biennial Meeting: "Summit on Environmental Modelling and Software", iEMSs. International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, Burlington, USA (2006)
36. Zaehle S., Sitch S., Smith B., and Hatterman F. Effects of parameter uncertainties on the modeling of terrestrial biosphere dynamics. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 19 (2005) 1-16