Mortality predictions for esophageal, stomach, and pancreatic cancer, Ireland, up to 2015

International Journal of Gastrointestinal Cancer

Volumn 37, Issue 1, 2006, Pages 15-25

  O'Lorcain, P ^a   Deady, S ^a   Comber, H ^a  

^a NATIONAL CANCER REGISTRY IRELAND   (Ireland)

Author keywords

Cancer; Ireland; Mortality; Poisson log log linear regression modeling; Predictions

Indexed keywords

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGED; ARTICLE; CANCER MORTALITY; CHILD; ESOPHAGUS CANCER; FEMALE; HUMAN; INFANT; IRELAND; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; NEWBORN; PANCREAS CANCER; POISSON DISTRIBUTION; PREDICTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; STOMACH CANCER;

ESOPHAGEAL NEOPLASMS; FEMALE; FORECASTING; HUMANS; IRELAND; MALE; MODELS, STATISTICAL; PANCREATIC NEOPLASMS; POISSON DISTRIBUTION; PREDICTIVE VALUE OF TESTS; REGISTRIES; SEX CHARACTERISTICS; STOMACH NEOPLASMS; SURVIVAL ANALYSIS;

EID: 33846995959     PISSN: 15373649     EISSN: 15590739     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1385/IJGC:37:1:15     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. Hakulinen T, Dyba T. Precision of incidence predictions based on Poisson distributed observations. Stat Med 1994;13:1513-1523.
2. Cancer Services in Ireland: A National Strategy. Government Publications Office, Dublin, 2005.
3. Annual Reports on Vital Statistics 1951-2002. Government Publications Office, Dublin, 1952-2003.
4. Hakulinen, T, Teppo L, Saxen E. Do the predictions for cancer incidence come true? Cancer 1986;57:2454-2458.
5. Dyba T, Hakulinen T. Comparison of different approaches to incidence prediction based on simple interpolation techniques. Stat Med 2000;19:1741-1752.
6. Irish Census Data 1956, 1961, 1966, 1971, 1979, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2002. Central Statistics Office (CSO), Skehard Road, Cork, Ireland.
7. International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems. 9th revision. World Health Organization, Geneva, 1977.
8. The WHO Cancer Mortality Database, World Health Organization. Website: http://www-depdb.iarc.fr/who/menu.htm. (Accessed: October 2005).
9. Join Point Regression Program (Version 2.5) available at the US National Cancer Institute of Health, July 2000. Website: http://www.dccps.ims.nci.nih. gov/SRAB/join point/.
10. Kim HJ, Fay MP, Feuer EJ, Midthune DN. Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates. Stat Med 2000;19:335-351.
11. Hakulinen T. Breast cancer: modeling of mortality trends, in: Evaluation and Monitoring of Screening Programmes. (Sankila R, Demaret E, Hakama M, Lynge E, Schouten LJ, Parkin DM, eds.) European Network of Cancer Registries, European Commission, Europe Against Cancer Programme, Brussells-Luxembourg, 2000; pp. 151-162.
12. Cox DR, Hinkley DV. Theoretical Statistics. Chapman and Hall, London; 1990.
13. Population and Labour Projections 2006-2036. Government Publications Office, Dublin, 2004.
14. Slevin, S. Statistical Analysis of Epidemiologic Data (Monographs in Epidemiology & Biostatistics), 3rd Ed. Oxford University Press, New York, NY, 2004, pp. 23-25.
15. International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems. 10th revision. World Health Organization, Geneva, 1992.
16. Munoz N, Day NE. Esophageal cancer, in: Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention, 2nd Ed. (Schottenfeld D, Fraumeni JF Jr., eds.) Oxford University Press, New York, NY, 1996.
17. Shaheen N, Ransohoff DF. Gastresophageal reflux, Barrett esophagus and esophageal cancer. JAMA 2002;287:1972-1981.
18. European Health For All (EHFA) Database, World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe, 8 Scherfigsvej 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark, July 2003. Website: http://hfadb.who.dk/hfa/.
19. Blot WJ, McLaughlin JK. The changing epidemiology of esophageal cancer. Semin Oncol 1999;26:2-8.
20. Economic and Social Research Institute, Ireland. Unpublished data, January 2004.
21. Hansson LE, Sparen P, Nyren O. Survival in stomach cancer is improving: results of a nationwide population-based Swedish study. Ann Surg 1999;230:162-169.
22. Botterweck AA, Schouten LJ, Volovics A, Dorant E, van Den Brandt PA. Trends in incidence of adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus and gastric cardia in ten European countries. Int J Epidemiol 2000;29:645-654.
23. Powell J, McConkey CC. The rising trend in oesophageal adenocarcinoma and gastric cardia. Eur J Cancer Prev 1992;1:265-269.
24. Møller H. Incidence of cancer of oesophagus, cardia and stomach in Denmark. Eur J Cancer Prev 1992;1:159-164.
25. Hameeteman W, Tytgat GN, Houthoff HJ, van den Tweel JG. Barrett's esophagus: development of dysplasia and adenocarcinoma. Gastroenterology 1989;96:1249-1256.
26. Spechler SJ, Robbins AH, Rubins HB, et al. Adenocarcinoma and Barrett's esophagus. An overrated risk? Gastroenterology 1984;87:927-393.
27. Gammon MD, Schoenberg JB, Ahsan H, et al. Tobacco, alcohol, and socioeconomic status and adenocarcinomas of the esophagus and gastric cardia. J Natl Cancer Inst 1997;89:1277-1284.
28. Vaughan TL, Davis S, Kristal A, Thomas DB. Obesity, alcohol, and tobacco as risk factors for cancers of the esophagus and gastric cardia: adenocarcinoma versus squamous cell carcinoma. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 1995;4:85-92
29. Brown LM, Swanson CA, Gridley G, et al. Adenocarcinoma of the esophagus: role of obesity and diet. J Natl Cancer Inst 1995;87:104-109.
30. Chow WH, Blot WJ, Vaughan TL, et al. Body mass index and risk of adenocarcinomas of the esophagus and gastric cardia. J Natl Cancer Inst 1998;90:150-155.
31. Goodman KJ, Correa P. The transmission of Helicobacter pylori. A critical review of the evidence. Int J Epid 1995;24:875-887.
32. Hansen S, Wiig JN, Giercksky KE, Tretli S. Eosophageal and gastric carcinoma in Norway 1958-1992: incidence time trend variability according to morphological subtypes and organ subsites. Int J Cancer 1997;71:340-344.
33. Liebeuf A, Faivre J. Time trends in oesophageal cancer incidence in Cote d'Or (France), 1976-93. Eur J Cancer Prev 1997;6:24-30.
34. Macfarlane GJ, Plesko I, Kramarova E, Obsitnikova A, Boyle P. Epidemiological features of gastric and oesophageal cancers in Slovakia. Br J Cancer 1994;70:177-179.
35. Wayman J, Forman D, Griffin SM. Monitoring the changing pattern of oesophago-gastric cancer: data from a UK cancer registry. Cancer Causes Control 2001;12:943-949.
36. Doran K, Sutton R, Walker SJ, Morris AI, Campbell F, Williams EM. New classification of esophageal and gastric cancinomas derived from changing patterns of epidemiology. Br J Cancer 1999;80:834-842.
37. Devesa SS, Blot WJ, Fraumeni JF Jr. Changing patterns in the incidence of esophageal and gastric carcinoma in the United States. Cancer 1998;83:2049-2053.
38. Blot WJ, Devesa SS, Kneller RW, Fraumeni JF Jr. Rising incidence of adenocarcinoma of the esophagus and gastric cardia. JAMA 1991;265:1287-1289.
39. Simon B, Printz H. Epidemiological trends in pancreatic neoplasias. Dig Dis 2001;19:6-14.
40. Potter, JD. Pancreas cancer - we know about smoking, but do we know anything else? Am J Epidemiol 2002;155:793-795; discussion 796-797.
41. Wang XL, Wang J. Smoking-gene interaction and disease development: relevance to pancreatic cancer and atherosclerosis. World J Surg 2005;29:344-353.
42. Anderson KE, Potter JN, Mack TM. Pancreatic cancer, in Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention, 2nd Ed. (Schottenfeld D, Fraumeni JF Jr., eds.) Oxford University Press, New York, NY, 1996.
43. Hart AR. Pancreatic cancer: any prospects for prevention? Postgrad Med J 1999;75:521-526.
44. La Vecchia C, Lucchini F, Negri E, Boyle P, Maisonneuve P, Levi F. Trends in cancer mortality in Europe, 1955-1989. Eur J Cancer 1992;28:132-235.
45. Cancer in Ireland 1994-2001. National Cancer Registry Board. Cork, 2005.