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Volumn 18, Issue 1, 2007, Pages 88-102

The mobilization of distrust

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EID: 33846840423     PISSN: 10455736     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1353/jod.2007.0016     Document Type: Review
Times cited : (31)

References (22)
  • 1
    • 33846785766 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) continually monitored the media presence of parties and candidates during the election campaign. For an overview, see Raúl Trejo Delarbre, Datos duros: La actuación de los medios, Nexos 228 (September 2006): 2-23.
    • The Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) continually monitored the media presence of parties and candidates during the election campaign. For an overview, see Raúl Trejo Delarbre, "Datos duros: La actuación de los medios," Nexos 228 (September 2006): 2-23.
  • 2
    • 33846814109 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • In fact, the quick count was perfectly accurate in its statistical predictions. The final vote shares of all candidates lay within the confidence intervals estimated by the quick-count team at 10:15 p.m. Mexico City time on election night. See IFE. Informe del Comité del Conteo Rápido de la elección presidencial del 2 de julio de 2006 at
    • In fact, the quick count was perfectly accurate in its statistical predictions. The final vote shares of all candidates lay within the confidence intervals estimated by the quick-count team at 10:15 p.m. Mexico City time on election night. See IFE. "Informe del Comité del Conteo Rápido de la elección presidencial del 2 de julio de 2006" at http://pac.ife.org.mx/download/08/pac_down_informe_ Comite-Conteo Kapido.pdf.
  • 4
    • 0242472986 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Electoral Fraud: Causes, Types, and Consequences
    • June
    • Fabrice Lehoucq, "Electoral Fraud: Causes, Types, and Consequences," Annual Review of Political Science 6 (June 2003): 248.
    • (2003) Annual Review of Political Science , vol.6 , pp. 248
    • Lehoucq, F.1
  • 5
    • 2142674757 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mexico's Victory: The Democratic Revelation
    • For an overview of electoral reform in Mexico, see, October
    • For an overview of electoral reform in Mexico, see Andreas Schedler, "Mexico's Victory: The Democratic Revelation," Journal of Democracy 11 (October 2000): 5-19.
    • (2000) Journal of Democracy , vol.11 , pp. 5-19
    • Schedler, A.1
  • 6
    • 33846797070 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Most of the 1,314 nonresolved incidents (88.7 percent of all such incidents) that the IFE reported as having taken place on election day concerned voters who pretended to vote, or actually voted by accident or agreement, either without appearing on the voter list or without having their voter ID in order. Unfortunately, on July 2, political parties were not able to cover all polling stations. The PAN was present in 79.9 percent and the PRD coalition in 79.4 percent of the 130,231 polling stations. The average figure conceals considerable regional variation, as the presence of parties varies with their electoral strength. In the PRD stronghold of Mexico City the PAN was able to cover only a bit more than a third of the polling stations; in the northern state of Nuevo León, the PRD coalition was present in only a third. Did anything dirty happen at places not watched by specific parties? Bivariate regression analysis suggests that the effects of variation
    • Most of the 1,314 "nonresolved incidents" (88.7 percent of all such incidents) that the IFE reported as having taken place on election day concerned voters who pretended to vote, or actually voted (by accident or agreement), either without appearing on the voter list or without having their voter ID in order. Unfortunately, on July 2, political parties were not able to cover all polling stations. The PAN was present in 79.9 percent and the PRD coalition in 79.4 percent of the 130,231 polling stations. The average figure conceals considerable regional variation, as the presence of parties varies with their electoral strength. In the PRD stronghold of Mexico City the PAN was able to cover only a bit more than a third of the polling stations; in the northern state of Nuevo León, the PRD coalition was present in only a third. Did anything dirty happen at places not watched by specific parties? Bivariate regression analysis suggests that the "effects" of variations in party presence on vote shares (at the state level) were similar for the PAN and the PRD coalition. Thus, even under the strong causal assumption that party observers acted as agents of fraud as well as deterrents of fraud, the net effect for the two leading candidates, it seems, was neutral. See Javier Aparicio, "Representantes de casilla y voto presidencial: un análisis preliminar" (Mexico City: CIDE, 2006). Available at www.cide.edu/investigadores/aparicio/elecciones.
  • 7
    • 33846781941 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • ACE Encyclopedia, Reconciling Ballot Accounts, at www.aceproject.org/ace-en/topics/vc/vce/vce01/vce01a. For a comparative overview of ballot-accounting and vote-counting procedures,
    • ACE Encyclopedia, "Reconciling Ballot Accounts," at www.aceproject.org/ace-en/topics/vc/vce/vce01/vce01a. For a comparative overview of ballot-accounting and vote-counting procedures,
  • 9
    • 33846811876 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Javier Aparicio, Errores artiméticos en actas: Análisis comparative para 2000, 2003 y 2006 (Mexico City: CIDE, 2006). Figures are based on preliminary results as provided by the IFE at www.ife.org.mx.
    • Javier Aparicio, "Errores artiméticos en actas: Análisis comparative para 2000, 2003 y 2006" (Mexico City: CIDE, 2006). Figures are based on preliminary results as provided by the IFE at www.ife.org.mx.
  • 10
    • 33846848238 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • La evidencia de una elección confiable
    • See, October
    • See Javier Aparicio, "La evidencia de una elección confiable," Nexos 28 (October 2006): 49-53;
    • (2006) Nexos , vol.28 , pp. 49-53
    • Aparicio, J.1
  • 11
    • 33846819183 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • and AC Nielsen, Análisis sobre Errores Aritmé ticos (Mexico City, 2006). Calculations by the PRO are available at www.lopezobrador.org.mx/actas/analisislphp.
    • and AC Nielsen, "Análisis sobre Errores Aritmé ticos" (Mexico City, 2006). Calculations by the PRO are available at www.lopezobrador.org.mx/actas/analisislphp.
  • 12
    • 55949108335 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • For a comparative overview over recount provisions in contemporary democracies, see, Toronto: University of Toronto Press
    • For a comparative overview over recount provisions in contemporary democracies, see Louis Massicotte, André Biais, and Antoine Yoshinaka, Establishing the Rules of the Game: Election Laws in Democracies (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 2004), 150-53.
    • (2004) Establishing the Rules of the Game: Election Laws in Democracies , pp. 150-153
    • Massicotte, L.1    Biais, A.2    Yoshinaka, A.3
  • 14
    • 33846837793 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • See Marco A. Zavala, Cuándo cuenta un voto, Nexos 28/346 (October 2006): 10-13. Electoral magistrates made no effort to present their rulings in a format accessible to analysis without a previous trip through the jungle of legal text. Their sentences are posted in chronological order at www.trife.org.mx.
    • See Marco A. Zavala, "Cuándo cuenta un voto," Nexos 28/346 (October 2006): 10-13. Electoral magistrates made no effort to present their rulings in a format accessible to analysis without a previous trip through the jungle of legal text. Their sentences are posted in chronological order at www.trife.org.mx.
  • 15
    • 33846849759 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tribunal Electoral del Poder Judicial de la Federacibn, Dictamen relativo al cómpute final de la elección de Presidente de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos, Declaración de validez de la elección y de presidente electo (Mexico City: TEPJF), 5 September 2006, 158-203.
    • Tribunal Electoral del Poder Judicial de la Federacibn, "Dictamen relativo al cómpute final de la elección de Presidente de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos, Declaración de validez de la elección y de presidente electo" (Mexico City: TEPJF), 5 September 2006, 158-203.
  • 18
    • 33846784220 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • As public-opinion data show with respect to legislative elections in established democracies, citizens who feel [that] their vital interests are threatened by the elected government are likely to be highly sceptical about the virtues of the electoral process. André Biais, How Do Losers Assess Electoral Democracy? paper delivered at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 3-6 April 2003, 1.
    • As public-opinion data show with respect to legislative elections in established democracies, citizens "who feel [that] their vital interests are threatened by the elected government are likely to be highly sceptical about the virtues of the electoral process." André Biais, "How Do Losers Assess Electoral Democracy?" paper delivered at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 3-6 April 2003, 1.
  • 19
    • 33846834339 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • See, for instance, the data presented in 2006 in the newspaper Reforma (Mexico City), esp. July 15, 25, and 30; August 9 and 27; and September 6.
    • See, for instance, the data presented in 2006 in the newspaper Reforma (Mexico City), esp. July 15, 25, and 30; August 9 and 27; and September 6.
  • 20
    • 7544234157 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Latin American Presidencies Interrupted
    • October
    • Arturo Valenzuela, "Latin American Presidencies Interrupted," Journal of Democracy 15 (October 2004): 5-19.
    • (2004) Journal of Democracy , vol.15 , pp. 5-19
    • Valenzuela, A.1
  • 22
    • 85055357229 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Close Fought Elections and the Institutionalization of Democracy
    • July, and
    • Laurence Whitehead, "Close Fought Elections and the Institutionalization of Democracy," Taiwan Journal of Democracy 2 (July 2006): 11 and 6.
    • (2006) Taiwan Journal of Democracy , vol.2 , pp. 11-16
    • Whitehead, L.1


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