Taught to protest, learning to lose

Journal of Democracy

Volumn 18, Issue 1, 2007, Pages 73-87

  Estrada, Luis ^a   Poiré, Alejandro ^b  

^a INSTITUTO TECNOLÓGICO AUTÓNOMO DE MÉXICO   (Mexico)

^b HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 33846786453     PISSN: 10455736     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1353/jod.2007.0006     Document Type: Review

References (21)

1. nd Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, September 2006.
2. See Alejandro Poiré, "El Bueno, el Malo y la Incógnita: Ensayo Sobre las Primarias Partidarias del 2005," Bien Común 11 (December 2005): 7-10.
3. Ultimately, "[t]he Supreme Court . . . upheld Madrazo's contention that campaign spending was an internal state matter" and the case was filed. Susana Berruecos, "Electoral Justice in Mexico: The Role of the Electoral Tribunal under New Federalism," Journal of Latin American Studies 35 (November 2003): 810.
4. For a review, see Jorge I. Dominguez, "The Scholarly Study of Mexican Politics," Mexican Studies/Estudios Mexicanos 20 (Summer 2004): 377-410, esp. 405-10.
5. We assess the independent casual effect of each of the explanatory variables on the probability of voting for each of the three major candidates, using a multi-nomial logit model. For model coefficients and other detailed statistical information, see www.journalofdemocracy.orglarticles/gratis/ PoireGraphics-18-1.pdf.
6. See Beatriz Magaloni, "Is the PRI Fading? Economic Performance, Electoral Accountability, and Voting Behavior," in Jorge I. Domínguez and Alejandro Poiré, eds., Toward Mexico's Democratization: Parties, Campaigns, Elections, and Pub lic Opinion (London: Routledge, 1999), 203-36.
7. The more intense the partisan allegiance, the more biased the analyses and interpretation of the political environment. See Donald Stokes, "Party Loyalty and the Likelihood of Deviating Elections," in Angus Campbell et al., eds., Elections and the Political Order (New York: Wiley, 1966).
8. Left-right ideology does not influence the Madrazo vote, underscoring his explicit appeals on the campaign trail to centrist voters.
9. See Christoper J. Anderson and Silvia M. Mendes, "Learning to Lose: Election Outcomes, Democratic Experience, and Political Protest Potential," British Journal of Political Science 36 (January 2006): 91-111.
10. Anderson and Mendes, "Learning to Lose," 91.
11. Participants in the Mexico 2006 Panel Study include Andy Baker, Kathleen Bruhn, Roderic Camp, Wayne Cornelius, Jorge Dominguez, Kenneth Greene, Joseph Klesner, Chappell Lawson (principal investigator), Beatrix Magaloni, James McCann, Alejandro Moreno, Alejandro Poiré, and David Shirk. Funding was provided by the National Science Foundation (SES-0517971) and Reforma; fieldwork was conducted by Reforma under the direction of Alejandro Moreno.
12. Anderson and Mendes, "Learning to Lose," 94.
13. The discussion in the next paragraph stems from a multinomial logit model of "democratic certainty," where the dependent variable had three categories: convinced Mexico is a democracy, convinced Mexico is not a democracy, and opinion switchers.
14. The discussion in this paragraph and the ones below uses results of a logit model where potential for protest, as measured in the second wave of the panel, was the dependent variable.
15. This result is consistent with Anderson and Mendes, "Learning to Lose." 103-104.
16. With the exception of PRI partisans in Mexico City, where this party has very weak support.
17. The evidence suggests that the fraud was not meant to stop a PRI defeat, but to guarantee a PRI majority in the Chamber of Deputies. See Arturo Sánchez Gutiérrez, ed., Elecciones a Debate, 1988: Las Actas Electorales Perdida (Mexico City: Diana, 1994).
18. For a critique of López Obrador's performance, including his clientelistic policy making, see Roger Bartra, "Fango Sobre la Democracia," Letras Libres, September 2006, 16-22.
19. See Juan Molinar Horcasitas, El Tiempo de la Legitimidad: Elecciones, Autoritarismo y Democracia en México (Mexico City: Cal y Arena, 1991), 171-200
20. for the original description of the two dimensions of the party system, and Beatriz Magaloni and Alejandro Poiré, "The Issues, the Vote, and the Mandate for Change," in Jorge I. Dominguez and Chappell Lawson, eds., Mexico's Pivotal Democratic Election: Candidates, Voters, and the Presidential Campaign of 2000 (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press and Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, 2004), 293-319, for an assessment of issue voting in the 2000 elections.
21. Anderson and Mendes discuss the latter type of protest in "Learning to Lose," 98.