Exaggerated claims about earthquake predictions

Eos

Volumn 88, Issue 1, 2007, Pages

  Kafka, A L ^a   Ebel, J E ^a  

^a BOSTON COLLEGE   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION; SEISMOLOGY;

EID: 33846655202     PISSN: 00963941     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2007EO010002     Document Type: Article

References (11)

1. Evans, R. (1997). Assessment of schemes for earthquake prediction: Editor's introduction, Geophys. J. Int., 131, 413-420.
2. Gardner, J.K., and L. Knopoff (1974), Is the sequence of earthquakes in southern California with aftershocks removed Poissonian?, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 64, 1363-1367.
3. Geller, R.J. (1997). Earthquake prediction: A critical review, Geophys. J. Int., 131, 425-450.
4. Jet Propulsion Laboratory (2006), Scorecards: Status of the Real Time Earthquake Forecast Experiment, Pasadena, Calif. (Available at http://quakesim.jpl.nasa.gov/scorecard.html)
5. Kafka, A.L. (2002), Statistical analysis of the hypothesis that seismicity delineates areas where future large earthquakes are likely to occur in the central and eastern United States, Seismol. Res. Lett., 73(6), 990-1001.
6. Kafka, A.L. (2007), Does seismicity delineate zones where future large earthquakes are likely to occur in intraplate environments?, in Continental Intraplate Earthquakes: Science, Hazard, and Policy Issues, edited by S. Stein and S. Mazzotli, Geol. Soc. of Am Special Paper 425., Boulder, Colo., in press.
7. Kagan, Y.Y., and D.D. Jackson (1996), Statistical tests of the VAN earthquake predictions: Comments and reflections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23(11), 1443-1436.
8. Richter, C.F. (1977), Acceptance of the Medal of the Seismological Society of America, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 67, 1244-1247.
9. Rundle, J. B., K. F. Tiampo, W. Klein, and J. S. S. Martins (2002), Self-organization in leaky threshold systems: The influence of near-mean field dynamics and its implications for earthquakes, neurobiology, and forecasting, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 99, suppl. 1, 2514-2521.
10. Tiampo, K. F., J. B. Rundle, S. McGinnis, S.J. Gross, and W.Klein (2002), Eigenpatterns in southern California seismicity, J. Geophys. Res., 107(B12), 2354, doi:10.1029/2001JB000562.
11. Wells, D.L., and K.J. Coppersmith (1994), New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 84(4), 974-1002.