Election cycles and the economic voter

Political Research Quarterly

Volumn 59, Issue 4, 2006, Pages 543-556

  Carey, Sean ^a   Lebo, Matthew J ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SHEFFIELD   (United Kingdom)

^b STONY BROOK UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 33846570539     PISSN: 10659129     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/106591290605900404     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. Bartle, John. 1999. "Improving the Measurement of Party Identification." In Justin Fisher, Philip Cowley, David Denver, and Andrew Russell, eds., British Elections & Parties Review, Vol. 9. London: Frank Cass.
2. _. 2001. "The Measurement of Party Identification in Britain: Where Do We Stand Now?" In Jon Tonge, Lynn Bennie, David Denver, and Lisa Harrison, eds., British Elections & Parties Review, Vol. 11. London: Frank Cass.
3. Chappell, Henry, and William R. Keech. 1985. "A New View of Political Accountability for Economic Performance." American Political Science Review 79: 10-27.
4. _. 1991. "Explaining Aggregate Evaluations of Economic Performance." In Helmut Norpoth, Michael Lewis-Beck and Jean Dominique Lafay, eds., Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
5. Clarke, Harold D., Karl Ho, and Marianne C. Stewart. 2000. "Majora Lesser (Not Minor) Effects: Prime Ministerial Approval and Governing Party Support in Britain Since 1979." Electoral Studies 18: 255-74.
6. Clarke, Harold D., and Matthew Lebo. 2003. "Fractional (Co(integration and Governing Party Support in Britain." British Journal of Political Science 33: 283-301.
7. Clarke, Harold D. and Marianne C. Stewart. 1994. "Prospections, Retrospections, and Rationality: The 'Bankers' Model of Presidential Approval Reconsidered." American Journal of Political Science 38: 1104-23.
8. _. 1995. "Economic Evaluations, Prime Ministerial Approval and Governing Party Support in Britain: Rival Models Reconsidered." British Journal of Political Science 25: 145-70.
9. Clarke, Harold D., Marianne C. Stewart, and Paul F. Whiteley. 1997. "New Models for New Labour: The Political Economy of Labour Party Support, January 1992-April 1997." American Political Science Review 92: 559-75.
10. Clarke, Harold D., Marianne C. Stewart, and Gary Zuk. 1986. "Politics, Economics and Party Popularity in Britain, 1979-83." Electoral Studies 5: 123-42.
11. Dorussen, Han, and Michaell Taylor. 2002. "Group Economic Voting: A Comparison of the Netherlands and Germany." In Han Dorussen and Michaell Taylor, eds., Economic Voting. London: Routledge.
12. Duch, Raymond M., and Harvey D Palmer. 2002. "Heterogeneous Perceptions of Economic Conditions in Cross-National Perspective." In Han Dorussen and Michaeli Taylor, eds., Economic Voting. London: Routledge.
13. Erikson, Robert S. 2004. "Macro vs. Micro-Level Perspectives on Economic Voting: Is the Micro-Level Evidence Endogenously Induced?" Paper presented at the 2004 Political Methodology Meetings, Stanford University.
14. Evans, Geoffrey, and Robert Andersen. 2006. "The Political Conditioning of Economic Perceptions." Journal of Politics 68: 194-207.
15. Fiorina, Morris. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
16. Gidengil, Elisabeth, and Agnieszka Dobrzynska. 2003. "Using a Rolling Cross Section Design to Model Media Effects: The Case of Leader Evaluations in the 1997 Canadian Election." Paper presented at 2003 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association.
17. Gomez, Brad T., and J. Matthew Wilson. 2001. "Political Sophistication and Economic Voting in the American Electorate: A Theory of Heterogeneous Attribution." American Journal of Political Science 45: 899-914.
18. Goodhart, Charles A. E., and R. J. Bhansali. 1970. "Political Economy." Political Studies 18: 43-106.
19. Johnston, Richard, and Henry E. Brady. 2002. "The Rolling CrossSection Design." Electoral Studies 21: 283-95.
20. Key, Valdimer O. Jr. 1968. The Responsible Electorate: Rationality in Presidential Voting, 1936-1960. New York: Vintage Books.
21. Kiewiet, Roderick. 1981. "Policy-Oriented Voting in Response to Economic Issues." American Political Science Review 75: 448-59.
22. _. 1983. Macroeconomics and Micropolitics: the Electoral Effects of Economic Issues. Chicago, Illinois: University of Chicago Press.
23. Kinder, Donald R., and Roderick Kiewiet. 1981. "Sociotropic Politics: The American Case." British Journal of Politic Science 11: 129-61.
24. Kramer, Gerald H. 1983. "The Ecological Fallacy Revisited: Aggregate- versus Individual-level Findings on Economics and Elections, and Sociotropic Voting." American Political Science Review 77:92-111.
25. Ladner, Matthew, and Christopher Wlezien. 2004. "Partisan Preferences, Electoral Prospects, and Economic Expectations." Nuffield College Working Papers in Politics 2004-W12, Oxford.
26. Lebo, Matthew J., Robert W. Walker, and Harold D. Clarke. 2000. "You Must Remember This: Dealing with Long Memory in Political Analyses." Electoral Studies 19: 31-48.
27. Lewis-Beck, Michael S. 1988. Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
28. MacKuen, Michael B., Robert S. Erikson and James A. Stimson. 1992. "Peasants or Bankers?: The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy." American Political Science Review 86: 597-611.
29. _. 1996. "Comment." Journal of Politics 58: 793-801.
30. Markus, Gregory. 1988. "The Impact of Personal and National Economic Conditions on the Presidential Vote: A Pooled CrossSectional Analysis." American Journal of Political Science 32:137-54.
31. Miller, William L., and William M. Mackie. 1973. "The Electoral Cycle and the Asymmetry of Government and Opposition Popularity." Political Studies 21: 263-79.
32. Mueller, John E. 1970. "Presidential popularity from Truman to Johnson." American Political Science Review 64: 18-23.
33. Norpoth, Helmut. 1985. "Politics, Economics and the Cycle of Presidential Popularity." In Heinz Eulau and Michael LewisBeck, eds., Economics and Electoral Outcomes. New York: Agathon.
34. _. 1996a. "Presidents and the Prospective Voter." Journal of Politics 58: 776-92.
35. _. 1996b. "Rejoinder." Journal of Politics 58: 802-05.
36. Norpoth, Helmut, Michael Lewis-Beck, and Jean Dominique Lafay, eds. 1991. Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
37. Sanders, David. 1991. "Government Popularity and the Next General Election." Political Studies 62: 235-61.
38. _. 1993. "Forecasting the 1992 General Election Outcome: The Performance of an "Economic" Model." British Elections and Parties Yearbook 1993, ed. by David Denver, Pippa Noris, David Broughton and Colin Railings. London: Harvester Wheatsheaf.
39. _. 1999. "Conservative Incompetence, Labour Responsibility and the Perceived Economy in Popularity Functions: How Much Do Voters Need to Know?" Electoral Studies 19: 275-94.
40. _. 2000. "The Real Economy and the Perceived Economy in Popularity Functions: How Much Do Voters Need to Know? A Study of British Data, 1974-97." Electoral Studies 19: 275-94.
41. _. 2003. "Party Identification, Economic Perceptions, and Voting in British General Elections, 1974-97." Electoral Studies 22: 239-63.
42. Sanders, David, Jonathan Burton, and Jack Kneeshaw. 2003. "Identifying the True Identifiers: A Question Wording Experiment." Party Politics 8 (2): 193-205.
43. Sanders, David and Sean Carey. 2002. "Temporal Variations in Economic Voting: A Comparative Cross-national Analysis." In Han Dorussen and Michaeli Taylor, eds., Economic Voting. London: Routledge.
44. Sanders, David, Hugh Ward, and David Marsh (with Tony Fletcher). 1987. "Governmental Popularity and the Falklands War: A Reassessment." In Norpoth, Lewis-Beck, and Lafay, eds., Economics and Politics; The Calculus of Support. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
45. Tufte, Edward R. 1978. Political Control of the Economy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.