Spring temperature, clutch initiation date and duck nest success: A test of the mismatch hypothesis

Journal of Animal Ecology

Volumn 76, Issue 1, 2007, Pages 139-148

  Drever, Mark C ^a,c   Clark, Robert G ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF GUELPH   (Canada)

^b ENVIRONMENT CANADA   (Canada)

^c UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA   (Canada)

Author keywords

Breeding biology; Climate change; Nest fate; Prairies; Timing of breeding; Waterfowl

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; HYPOTHESIS TESTING; NESTING SUCCESS; PHENOLOGY; POPULATION DECLINE; REPRODUCTIVE EFFORT; SPRING (SEASON); TEMPERATURE EFFECT; WATERFOWL;

ANIMAL; ARTICLE; DUCK; ECOSYSTEM; EGG LAYING; FEMALE; MALE; NESTING; PHYSIOLOGY; SEASON; SPECIES DIFFERENCE; TEMPERATURE; TIME;

ANIMALS; DUCKS; ECOSYSTEM; FEMALE; MALE; NESTING BEHAVIOR; OVIPOSITION; SEASONS; SPECIES SPECIFICITY; TEMPERATURE; TIME FACTORS;

CANADA; NORTH AMERICA; SASKATCHEWAN;

ANAS; ANAS ACUTA; ANATIDAE; AVES;

EID: 33845877983     PISSN: 00218790     EISSN: 13652656     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2006.01183.x     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. Ackerman, J.T. (2002) Of mice and mallards: positive indirect effects of coexisting prey on waterfowl nest success. Oikos, 98, 469-480.
2. Aebischer, N.J. (1999) Multi-way comparisons and generalised linear models of nest success: extensions of the Mayfield method. Bird Study, 46, S22-S31.
3. Afton, A.D. & Paulus (1992) Incubation and Brood Care. Ecology and Management of Breeding Waterfowl (eds B.D.J. Batt, A.D. Afton, M.G. Anderson, C.D. Ankney, D.H. Johnson, J.A. Kadlec & G.L. Krapu), pp. 62-108. University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, MN.
4. Beauchamp, W.D., Koford, R.R., Nudds, T.D., Clark, R.G. & Johnson, D.H. (1996) Long-term declines in nest success of prairie ducks. Journal of Wildlife Management, 60, 247-257.
5. Bethke, R.W. & Nudds, T.D. (1995) Effects of climate change and land use on duck abundance in Canadian prairieparklands. Ecological Applications, 5, 588-600.
6. Blums, P., Mednis, A., Bauga, I., Nichols, J.D. & Hines, J.E. (1996) Age-specific survival and philopatry in three species of European ducks: a long-term study. Condor, 98, 61-74.
7. Blums, P., Clark, R.G. & Mednis, A. (2002) Patterns of reproductive effort and success in birds: path analyses of long-term data from European ducks. Journal of Animal Ecology, 71, 280-295.
8. Blums, P., Nichols, J.D., Hines, J.E., Lindberg, M.S. & Mednis, A. (2005) Individual quality, survival variation and patterns of phenotypic selection on body condition and timing of nesting in birds. Oecologia, 143, 365-376.
9. Both, C. & Visser, M.E. (2001) Adjustment to climate change is constrained by arrival date in a long distance migrant bird. Nature, 411, 296-298.
10. Burnham, K.P. & Anderson, D.R. (2002) Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: a Practical Information-Theoretic Approach, 2nd edn. Springer-Verlag, New York.
11. Byers, S.M. (1974) Predator-prey relationships in an Iowa waterfowl nesting area. Transactions of the North American Wildlife and Natural Resources Conference, 39, 223-229.
12. Clark, R.G. & Nudds, T.D. (1991) Habitat patch size and duck nesting success: the crucial experiments have not been performed. Wildlife Society Bulletin, 19, 534-543.
13. Clark, R.G. & Shutler, D. (1999) Avian habitat selection: pattern from process in nest-site use by ducks? Ecology, 80, 272-287.
14. Crabtree, R.L. & Wolfe, M.L. (1988) Effects of alternative prey on skunk predation on waterfowl nests. Wildlife Society Bulletin, 16, 163-169.
15. Darling, F.F. (1938) Bird Flocks and the Breeding Cycle. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
16. Dawson, R.D. & Clark, R.G. (2000) Effects of hatching date and egg size on growth, recruitment and adult size of lesser scaup. Condor, 102, 930-935.
17. Drever, M.C., Wins-Purdy, A., Nudds, T.D. & Clark, R.G. (2004) Decline of duck nest success revisited: relationships with predators and wetlands in dynamic prairie environments. Auk, 121, 497-508.
18. Dzus, E.H. & Clark, R.G. (1998) Brood survival and recruitment of mallards Anas platyrhynchos in relation to wetland density and hatching date. Auk, 115, 311-318.
19. Emery, R.B., Howerter, D.W., Armstrong, L.M., Anderson, M.G., Devries, J.H. & Joynt, B.L. (2005) Seasonal variation in waterfowl nesting success and its relation to cover management in the Canadian prairies. Journal of Wildlife Management, 69, 1181-1193.
20. Gjerdrum, C., Valleé, A.M.J., Cassady-St Clair, C., Bertram, D.F., Ryder, J.L. & Blackburn, G.S. (2003) Tufted puffin reproduction reveals ocean climate variability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 100, 9377-9382.
21. Greenwood, R.J., Sargeant, A.B., Johnson, D.H., Cowardin, L.M. & Shaffer, T.L. (1995) Factors associated with duck nest success in the Prairie Pothole Region of Canada. Wildlife Monographs, 128, 1-57.
22. Guyn, K.L. & Clark, R.G. (1999) Factors affecting survival of northern pintail ducklings in Alberta. Condor, 101, 369-377.
23. Hammond, M.C. & Johnson, D.H. (1984) Effects of Weather on Breeding Ducks in North Dakota. Fish and Wildlife Technical Report 1. US Fish and Wildlife Service, US Department of Interior, Washington, DC.
24. Hazler, K.R. (2004) Mayfield logistic regression: a practical approach for analysis of nest survival. Auk, 121, 707-716.
25. Houghton, J.T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M., Van de Linden, P.J. & Xiaosu, D. (eds) (2001) Climate Change 2001. Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
26. Ims, R.A. (1990) On the adaptive value of reproductive synchrony as a predator-swamping strategy. American Naturalist, 136, 485-498.
27. Johnson, D.H. & Grier, J.W. (1988) Determinants of breeding distributions of ducks. Wildlife Monographs, 100, 1-37.
28. Klett, A.T., Duebbert, H.F., Faanes, C.A. & Higgins, K.F. (1986) Techniques for Studying Nest Success of Ducks in Upland Habitats in the Prairie Pothole Region. Resource Publication 158. US Fish and Wildlife Service. US Department of Interior, Washington, DC.
29. Klett, A.T., Shaffer, T.L. & Johnson, D.H. (1988) Duck nest success in the Prairie Pothole region. Journal of Wildlife Management, 52, 431-440.
30. Krapu, G.L. & Reinecke, K.J. (1992) Foraging ecology and nutrition. Ecology and Management of Breeding Waterfowl (eds B.D.J. Batt, A.D. Afton, M.G. Anderson, C.D. Ankney, D.H. Johnson, J.A. Kadlec & G.L. Krapu), pp. 1-29. University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, MN.
31. Krapu, G.L., Reynolds, R.E., Sargeant, G.A. & Renner, R.W. (2004) Patterns of variation in clutch sizes in a guild of temperate-nesting dabbling ducks. Auk, 121, 695-706.
32. Langford, W.A. & Driver, E.A. (1979) Quantification of the relationship between Mallard nest initiation and temperature. Wildfowl, 30, 31-34.
33. Larson, D.L. (1995) Effects of climate on numbers of northern Prairie wetlands. Climatic Change, 30, 169-180.
34. Mayfield, H. (1961) Nesting success calculated from exposure. Wilson Bulletin, 73, 255-261.
35. Mayfield, H. (1975) Suggestions for calculating nest success. Wilson Bulletin, 87, 456-466.
36. McCarty, J.P. (2001) Ecological consequences of recent climate change. Conservation Biology, 15, 320-331.
37. Miller, M.R. & Duncan, D.E. (1999) The northern pintail in North America: status and conservation needs of a struggling population. Wildlife Society Bulletin, 27, 788-800.
38. Myneni, R.B., Keeling, C.D., Tucker, C.J., Asrar, G. & Nemani, R.R. (1997) Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991. Nature, 89, 698-702.
39. Poiani, K.A. & Johnson, W.C. (1991) Global warming and prairie wetlands: potential consequences for waterfowl habitat. Bioscience, 41, 611-618.
40. Rotella, J.J. & Ratti, J.T. (1992) Mallard brood survival and wetland habitat conditions in southwestern Manitoba. Journal of Wildlife Management, 56, 499-507.
41. SAS Institute (1997) SAS/STAT Software: Changes and Enhancements for Release 6•12. SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC.
42. Shutler, D., Gloutney, M.L. & Clark, R.G. (1998) Body mass, energetic constraints, and duck nesting ecology. Canadian Journal of Zoology, 76, 1805-1814.
43. Smith, G.W. (1995) A Critical Review of the Aerial and Ground Surveys of Breeding Waterfowl in North America. Biological Science Report 5. US Department of the Interior, National Biological Service, Washington, DC.
44. Sorenson, L.G., Goldberg, R., Root, T.L. & Sorenson, M.G. (1998) Potential effects of global warming on waterfowl populations breeding in the Northern Great Plains. Climate Change, 40, 343-369.
45. Stewart, R.E. & Kantrud, H.A. (1973) Ecological distribution of breeding waterfowl populations in North Dakota. Journal of Wildlife Management, 37, 39-50.
46. Thomas, C.D. & Lennon, J.J. (1999) Birds extend their ranges northwards. Nature, 399, 213.
47. Thomas, D.W., Blondel, J., Perret, P., Lambrechts, M.M. & Speakman, J.R. (2001) Energetic and fitness costs of mismatching resource supply and demand in seasonally breeding birds. Science, 291, 2598-2600.
48. Visser, M.E., Van Noordwijk, A.J., Tinbergen, J.M. & Lessels, C.M. (1998) Warmer springs lead to mistimed reproduction in Great Tits (Parus major). Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B, 265, 1867-1870.
49. Visser, M.E., Adriaensen, F., van Balen, J.H., Blondel, J., Dhondt, A.A., van Dongen, S., du Feu, C., Ivankina, E.V., Kerimov, A.B., de Laet, J., Matthysen, E., McCleery, R., Orell, M. & Thomson, D.L. (2003) Variable responses to large-scale climate change in European Parus populations. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B, 270, 367-372.
50. Ward, J.V. (1992) Aquatic Insect Ecology: Vol. 1. Biology and Habitat. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York.
51. Weller, M.W. (1956) A simple field candler for waterfowl eggs. Journal of Wildlife Management, 20, 111-113.