Understanding pathways through financial crises and the impact of the IMF: An introduction

Global Governance

Volumn 12, Issue 4, 2006, Pages 373-393

  Woods, Ngaire ^a,b  

^a Global Economic Governance Programme   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Capital markets; Conditionality; Emerging economies; Financial crisis; International Monetary Fund; Policy space

Indexed keywords

EID: 33845803627     PISSN: 10752846     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1163/19426720-01204004     Document Type: Review

References (44)

1. A useful overview is Barry Eichengreen and Carlos Arteta, "Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1007, Institute for Business and Economic Research, University of California, Berkeley, 2000.
2. Task Force Report on Safeguarding Prosperity in a Global Financial System: The Future International Financial Architecture, Carla Hills and Peter Peterson, cochairs, and Morris Goldstein, project director (Washington, DC: Council on Foreign Relations, 1999);
3. International Financial Institutions Advisory Commission (or Meltzer Commission) final report and transcripts of meetings and hearings, Washington, DC, 2000;
4. José de Gregorio, Barry Eichengreen, Takatoshi Ito, and Charles Wyplosz, An Independent and Accountable IMF (London: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 1999).
5. For an analysis of the reform debate, see Chapter 7 of Ngaire Woods, The Globalizers: The IMF, the World Bank, and Their Borrowers (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2006).
6. Anne Krueger, "A New Approach to Sovereign Debt Restructuring," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, 2001, available at www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2001/122001.htm;
7. JohnTaylor, "Sovereign Debt Restructuring: A US Perspective," speech presented at the conference "Sovereign Debt Workouts: Hopes and Hazards," Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC, 2 April 2002, available at www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/po2056.htm;
8. "The IMF's Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF, 2004.
9. Stanley Fischer, "On the Need for an International Lender of Last Resort," paper prepared for delivery at the joint luncheon of the American Economic Association and the American Finance Association, New York, January 3, 1999 (Washington, DC: IMF, 1999);
10. Michael Bordo and Anna Schwartz, "Under What Circumstances, Past and Present, Have International Rescues of Countries in Financial Distress Been Successful?" Working Paper No. 6824 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1998);
11. John Eatwell and Lance Taylor, "International Capital Markets and the Future of Economic Policy," paper prepared for the Ford Foundation project International Capital Markets and the Future of Economic Policy (New York: Center for Economic Policy Analysis; and London: IPPR, 1998).
12. Normally this means that they do not have adequate foreign reserves. See Graham Bird, "Borrowing from the IMF: The Policy Implications of Recent Empirical Research," World Development 24 (1996): 1753-1760.
13. Graham Bird and Dane Rowlands, "Do IMF Programmes Have a Catalytic Effect on Other International Capital Flows?" Oxford Development Studies 30, no. 3 (October 2002): 229-249;
14. Ashoka Mody and Diego Saravia, "Catalyzing Capital Flows: Do IMF-Supported Programs Work as Commitment Devices?" IMF Working Paper No. 03/100 (Washington, DC: IMF, 2003);
15. Carlo Cottarelli and Curzio Giannini, "Bedfellows, Hostages, or Perfect Strangers? Global Capital Markets and the Catalytic Effect of IMF Crisis Lending," IMF Working Paper No. 02/193 (Washington, DC: IMF, 2002).
16. Tony Killick, "The 'Streamlining' of IMF Conditionality: Aspirations, Reality and Repercussions" (London: UK Department for International Development, 2002);
17. cf. Rodney Ramcharan, "How Does Conditional Aid (Not) Work," IMF Working Paper No. WP/02/183 (Washington, DC: IMF, 2002).
18. See Chapter 5, "Mission Creep in Russia," in Woods, The Globalizers.
19. Stephan Haggard, "Interests, Institutions, and Policy Reform," in Anne Krueger, ed., Economic Policy Reform: The Second Stage (Chicago: University of Chicago Press 2000), pp. 21-60.
20. Alex Cukierman, Steven Webb, and Bilin Neyapti, "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," World Bank Economic Review 6, no. 3 (1992): 353-398;
21. Sylvester Eijffinger and Jakob de Haan, The Political Economy of Central Bank Independence (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996).
22. Alberto Alesina and Roberto Perotti, "Budget Deficits and Budget Institutions," NBER Working Paper W5556 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, May 1996).
23. Alastair Smith and James Vreeland, "The Survival of Political Leaders and IMF Programs: Testing the Scapegoat Story," Yale University, 2003 (mimeograph).
24. Axel Dreher, "The Influence of Elections on IMF Program Interruptions," Journal of Development Studies 39, no. 6 (2003): 101-120;
25. A. Przeworski and J. R. Vreeland, "The Effect of IMF Programs on Economic Growth," Journal of Development Economics 62, no. 2 (2000): 385-421.
26. George Tsebelis, "Decision Making in Political Systems: Veto Players in Presidentialism, Parliamentarianism, Multicameralism, and Multipartyism," British Journal of Political Science 25 (1995): 289-325.
27. Haggard, "Interests, Institutions, and Policy Reform."
28. J. M. Carey, and M. S. Shugart, "Incentives to Cultivate a Personal Vote: A Rank Ordering of Electoral Formulas," Electoral Studies 14, no. 4 (1995): 417-439;
29. Gary Cox, "Centripetal and Centrifugal Incentives in Electoral Systems," American Journal of Political Science 34, no. 4 (1990): 903-935;
30. Roger Myerson, "Analysis of Democratic Institutions: Structure, Conduct, and Performance," Discussion Paper No. 1095 (Evanston: Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science, Northwestern University, 1994).
31. Martin Edwards, "Domestic Institutions and Economic Performance Under IMF Programs, 1979-1995," Texas Tech University, April 2003 (mimeograph).
32. Bordo and Schwartz, "Under What Circumstances."
33. Woods, The Globalizers, chap. 5.
34. Their rankings in the Human Development Index are Argentina 34, Malaysia 61, Turkey 94, Indonesia 110, South Africa 120, and India 127; see Human Development Report 2005 (New York: United Nations Development Programme).
35. Independent Evaluation Office, Evaluation of Prolonged Use of IMF Resources (Washington. DC: IMF, 2002).
36. Comments made at workshop, "Pathways Through Financial Crises," University College, Oxford University, 29-30 April 2004.
37. See, for example, Anne Krueger, "Maintaining the Momentum: Emerging Market Policy Reform in 2004," keynote address at the Asia Society conference "Investing Across Emerging Markets 2004," New York, 29 November 2003.
38. As recounted by Mario Blejer at workshop, "Pathways Through Financial Crises," University College, Oxford University, 29-30 April 2004.
39. These figures (and all subsequent GDP and aggregate government expenditure figures, unless otherwise indicated) are drawn from the 2004 IMF Country Report for each country, available at www.imf.org.
40. These and all subsequent figures on government health expenditure (unless otherwise indicated) have been drawn from the 2004 and 2005 WHO World Health Reports, available at www.who.int/whr/2004/annex/topic/en/annex_5_en.pdf;
41. and www.who.int/whr/2005/annexes-en.pdf. Government expenditure on education in each case has been drawn (unless otherwise indicated) from www.uis.unesco.org/ TEMPLATE/html/Exceltables/education/finance.xls.
42. Based on the statistics on the total consolidated expenditure by the general government sector for each financial year, provided by Statistics South Africa at www.statssa.gov.za.
43. Based on the statistics on trends in central government budget expenditure provided by the Government of India Department of Statistics (General Statistics) at http://mospi.nic.in.
44. See a good analysis offered by Abusaleh Shariff, Pabir K. Ghosh, and Samir K. Mondal, "Indian Public Expenditures on Social Sector and Poverty Alleviation Programmes During the 1990s," ODI Working Paper No. 169, Overseas Development Institute, November 2002.