The causes of Japan's 'lost decade': The role of household consumption

Japan and the World Economy

Volumn 18, Issue 4, 2006, Pages 378-400

  Horioka, Charles Yuji ^a,b  

^a OSAKA UNIVERSITY   (Japan)

^b Economic Research Inc   (United States)

Author keywords

Business cycles; Business fluctuations; Capital formation; Consumption; Deflation; Demand side factors; Economic fluctuations; Economic growth; Future prospects; GDP; Gross domestic product; Growth; Household; Household consumption; Household saving; Investment; Japan; Japanese economy; Lost decade; Precautionary saving; Recession; Saving; Slowdown; Stagnation; Structure of consumption; Supply side factors; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

EID: 33751200334     PISSN: 09221425     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2006.03.001     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. Ando A. Missing household saving and valuation of corporations: inquiry into Japanese national accounts I. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 16 2 (2002) 147-176
2. Ando A., Christelis D., and Miyagawa T. Inefficiency of corporate investment and distortion of savings behavior in Japan. In: Blomstrom M., Corbett J., Hayashi F., and Kashyap A. (Eds). Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan (2003), The University of Chicago Press, Chicago and London 155-190
3. Bank of Japan Research Department. Saikin no Kojin Shouhi Doukou ni tsuite (On Recent Trends in Personal Consumption). Nippon Ginkou Chousa Geppou (Bank of Japan Monthly Research Report) (June) (1998) 111-139 (in Japanese)
4. Bayoumi T. The morning after: Explaining the slowdown in Japanese growth in the 1990s. Journal of International Economics 53 2 (2001) 241-259
5. Bernanke, B.S., 2000. Japanese Monetary Policy: A Case of Self-Induced Paralysis? In: Mikitani and Posen (2000), pp. 149-166.
6. In: Blomstrom M., Corbett J., Hayashi F., and Kashyap A. (Eds). Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan. National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report. Chicago (2003), The University of Chicago Press, Illinois, USA
7. In: Callen T., and Ostry J.D. (Eds). Japan's Lost Decade: Policies for Economic Revival (2003), International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, USA
8. Doi, T., 2001. Chochiku-ritsu Kansuu ni motozuku Yobi-teki Chochiku Kasetsu no Kenshou (A test of the precautionary saving hypothesis using a saving rate function). ESRI Discussion Paper no. 1, Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan (in Japanese).
9. Doi T. Por que ahorran los hogares japoneses? Caidas en la renta y situacion del Mercado de trabajo (Precautionary saving and employment risk in the 1990s). Informacion Comercial Espanola 807 (2003) 57-81 (in Spanish)
10. Ginama, I., 1988. Estimation of precautionary savings in the U.S. and Japan. Unpublished Ph.D. Dissertation. University of California, San Diego.
11. Hamada K., Horiuchi A., and Naikaku-fu Keizai Shakai Sougou Kenkyuusho (Economic and Social Research Institute). Ronsou: Ushinawareta 10-nen (Debate: The Lost Decade) (2004), Nihon Keizai Shinpousha, Tokyo (in Japanese)
12. In: Harada Y., and Iwata K. (Eds). Defure Fukyou no Jisshou Bunseki (Empirical Analysis of the Deflationary Recession) (2002), Touyou Keizai Shinpousha, Tokyo (in Japanese)
13. Hayashi, F., 2003. Kouzou Kaikaku nakushite Seichou nashi (No growth without structural reform). In: Iwata and Miyagawa (2003), pp. 1-20 (in Japanese).
14. Hayashi F., and Prescott E.C. The 1990s in Japan: A lost decade. Review of Economic Dynamics 5 1 (2002) 206-235
15. Horioka C.Y. Japan's public pension system in the twenty-first century. In: Blomstrom M., Gangnes B., and Croix S.L. (Eds). Japan's New Economy: Continuity and Change in the Twenty-first Century (2001), Oxford University Press Inc., New York 99-119
16. Horioka C.Y., Fujisaki H., Watanabe W., and Kouno T. Are Americans more altruistic than the Japanese? A U.S.-Japan comparison of saving and bequest motives. International Economic Journal 14 1 (2000) 1-31
17. Horioka C.Y., Kohara M., and Murakami A. Defure Jidai ni okeru Nihonjin no Risuku Taisho-hou (The risk coping mechanisms of the Japanese in a deflationary age). In: Higuchi Y., Ohta K., and The Institute for Research on Household Economics (Eds). Josei-tachi no Heisei Fukyoo (The Heisei Recession and Women) (2004), Nihon Keizai Shinbunsha, Tokyo 235-260 (in Japanese)
18. Horioka C.Y., Murakami A., and Kohara M. How do the Japanese cope with risk?. Seoul Journal of Economics 15 1 (2002) 1-30
19. Horioka C.Y., and Watanabe W. Why do people save? A micro-analysis of motives for household saving in Japan. Economic Journal 107 442 (1997) 537-552
20. Ito, T., 2004. Retrospective on the bubble period and its relationship to developments in the 1990s. In: Saxonhouse and Stern (2004), pp. 17-34
21. Iwata K., and Miyagawa T. Ekonomikusu Shiri-zu: Ushinawareta 10-nen no Shin'in ha Nanika? (Economics Series: What Are the Real Causes of the Lost Decade?) (2003), Touyou Keizai Shinpousha, Tokyo (in Japanese)
22. Kin'yuu Kouhou Chuuou Iinkai (The Central Council for Financial Services Information) (Ed.), 2005. Kakei no Kin'yuu Shisan ni kansuru Seron Chousa (Public Opinion Survey on Household Financial Assets and Liabilities), 2005 ed. (and earlier editions of the same). Kin'yuu Kouhou Chuuou Iinkai (The Central Council for Financial Services Information), Tokyo (in Japanese).
23. Kobayashi K., and Inada M. Business Cycle Accounting for the Japanese Economy, Mimeo (2005), The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, Tokyo, Japan
24. Kobayashi K., and Katou S. Nihon Keizai no Wana (The Trap of the Japanese Economy) (2001), Nihon Keizai Shinbunsha, Tokyo (in Japanese)
25. Kawamoto, T. 2004. What do the purified Solow residuals tell us about Japan's lost decade? IMES (Institute of Monetary and Economic Studies) Discussion Paper No. 2004-E-5, Bank of Japan (April).
26. Mikitani, R., Posen, A.S. (Eds.), 2000. Japan's Financial Crisis and Its Parallels to U.S. Experience (Special Report 13). Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC.
27. Miyagawa, T., 2003. 'Ushinawareta Juu-nen' to Sangyou Kouzou no Tenkan ('The Lost Decade' and the conversion of the industrial structure). In: Iwata and Miyagawa (2003), pp. 39-61 (in Japanese).
28. Miyagawa, T., 2004. Nihon Keizai no Chouki Teitai to Kyoukyuu Saido (The long-term stagnation of the Japanese economy and the supply side). In: Hamada et al. (2004), pp. 3-27 (in Japanese).
29. Miyao, R., 2006. Nihon Keizai no Hendou Youin: Seisansei Shokku no Yakuwari (Causes of fluctuations in the Japanese economy: The role of productivity shocks), Bank of Japan Working Paper Series No. 06-J-1 (January) (in Japanese).
30. Murata, K., 2003a. Mikuro De-ta ni yoru Kakei Koudou Bunseki: Shourai Fuan to Yobi-teki Chochiku (An analysis of household behavior based on micro data: Uncertainty about the future and precautionary saving), Kinkyuu Kenkyuu (Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan) 22 (3), 23-58 (in Japanese).
31. Murata, K., 2003b. Precautionary savings and income uncertainty: Evidence from Japanese Microdata. IMES Discussion Paper No. 2003-E-9, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
32. Naikakufu Keizai Shakai Sougou Kenkyuusho (Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan), 2005. Kokumin Keizai Keisan Nenpou (Annual Report on National Accounts), 2005 ed. (and earlier editions of the same). Dokuritsu Gyousei Houjin Kokuritsu Insatsu-kyoku (Government Printing Bureau), Tokyo.
33. Nakagawa, S., 1999. "90-nen-dai-irigo mo Nihon no Kakei Chochiku-ritsu ha Naze Takai-ka? (Why is Japan's household saving rate high even after entering the 1990s?), Nippon Ginkou Chousa Geppou (Bank of Japan Monthly Research Report), pp. 69-101 (in Japanese).
34. Noguchi, A., 2002. Kouzou Mondai-setsu no Hihanteki Kaimei (A critique of the structural problem hypothesis). In: Harada and Iwata (2002), pp. 9-39 (in Japanese).
35. Noguchi, A., 2004. Nihon Keizai no Chouki Teitai ha Kouzou Mondai ga Gen'in ka? Sangyou Kouzou Chousei Furyou-setsu no Hihanteki Kentou (Are structural problems the cause of the long-term stagnation of the Japanese economy? A critical analysis of the inadequate industrial structural adjustment hypothesis). In: Hamada et al. (2004), pp. 29-60 (in Japanese).
36. Ogawa, K., 1991. Shotoku Risuku to Yobi-teki Chochiku (Income risk and precautionary saving). Keizai Kenkyuu, 42 (2), 139-152 (in Japanese).
37. Ogawa, K., 2003. Daifukyou no Keizai Bunseki (Economic analysis of the great recession). Nihon Keizai Shinbunsha, Tokyo (in Japanese).
38. Ohtake F. Nihon no Fubyoudou (Inequality in Japan) (2005), Nihon Keizai Shinbunsha, Tokyo (in Japanese)
39. Posen A.S. Restoring Japan's Economic Growth (1998), Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC
40. Saito, M., Shiratsuka, S., 2003a. Precautionary motives versus waiting options: Evidence from aggregate household saving in Japan. IMES Discussion Paper No. 2003-E-2, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
41. Saito M., Shiratsuka, S., 2003b. Yobi-teki Douki to Machi no Opushon: Wagakuni no Makuro Kakei Chochiku De-ta ni yoru Kenshou (Precautionary motives versus waiting options: A test based on Japanese aggregate household saving data). Kinyuu Kenkyuu (Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan) 22 (3), 1-18 (in Japanese).
42. Saito M. The Japanese Economy (Economic Ideas Leading to the 21st Century) vol. 1 (2000), World Scientific Publishing Co., Inc., River Edge, NJ
43. In: Saxonhouse G.R., and Stern R.M. (Eds). Japan's Lost Decade: Origins, Consequences and Prospects for Recovery (2004), Blackwell Publishing, Malden, MA, USA
44. Takemori S. Keizai Ronsen ha Yomigaeru (Economic Debate Is Revived) (2002), Touyou Keizai Shinpousha, Tokyo (in Japanese)
45. Zhou Y. Precautionary saving and earnings uncertainty in Japan: A household-level analysis. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 17 2 (2003) 192-212