Real-time determinants of fiscal policies in the euro area

Journal of Policy Modeling

Volumn 28, Issue 9, 2006, Pages 943-964

  Golinelli, Roberto ^a   Momigliano, Sandro ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BOLOGNA   (Italy)

^b BANK OF ITALY   (Italy)

Author keywords

Euro area countries; Fiscal policy; Fiscal rules; Political budget cycle; Real time information; Stabilisation policies

Indexed keywords

EID: 33750962499     PISSN: 01618938     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2006.08.001     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Arellano M., and Bond S. Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Review of Economic Studies 57 2 (1991)
2. Auerbach A.J. Is there a role for discretionary fiscal policy?. Paper presented at the conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City "Rethinking stabilization policy", Jackson Hole (2002, August)
3. Balassone, F., & Francese, M. (2004). Cyclical asymmetry in fiscal policy, debt accumulation and the Treaty of Maastricht. Bank of Italy. Temi di discussione, No. 531.
4. Ballabriga, F., & Martinez-Mongay, C. (2002). Has EMU shifted policy? Economic papers of the European Commission. Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, No. 166.
5. Bean C.R. Discussion. Economic Policy 26 (1998) 104-107
6. Bohn H. The behavior of U.S. public debt and deficits. Quarterly Journal of Economics 113 3 (1998) 949-963
7. Brender, A., & Drazen, A. (2004). Political budget cycles in new versus established democracies. NBER working paper, No. 10539.
8. Bruck T., and Zwiener R. Fiscal policy rules for stabilisation and growth: A simulation analysis of deficit and expenditure targets in a monetary union. Journal of Policy Modeling (2006) 28
9. Brunila A., and Martinez-Mongay C. Fiscal policy in the early years of EMU. In: Buti M., and Sapir A. (Eds). EMU and economic policy in Europe (2002), Edward Elgar, UK and USA
10. Buti M. Public finances in the early years of EMU: Adjusting to the new policy regime. Paper presented at a workshop organized by the Fundación por la Modernización de España, Madrid (2002, October)
11. Buti, M., & Pench, L. R. (2004, December). Why do large countries flout the Stability Pact? And what can be done about it? Journal of Common Market Studies, 42(5).
12. In: Buti M., and Sapir A. (Eds). Economic Policy in EMU (1998), Clarendon Press, Oxford
13. Buti, M., & van den Noord, P. (2003). Discretionary fiscal policy and elections: The experience of the early years of EMU. OECD economic department working paper, No. 351.
14. Buti M., and van den Noord P. Fiscal discretion and elections in the early years of EMU. Journal of Common Market Studies 42 4 (2004) 737-756
15. Cohen D., and Follette G. Forecasting exogenous fiscal variables in the United States. Paper presented at the public finance workshop in Seville, Spain (2003, October)
16. Drazen A. The political business cycle after 25 years. NBER macroeconomics annual 2000 (2001), MIT Press, Cambridge, MA
17. European Commission (2001). Public finance in EMU-2001. European Economy. Reports and studies, No. 3.
18. European Commission (in press). Public finance in EMU - 2006 - Part IV: Fiscal policy in good times. European Economy. Reports and studies, No. 3.
19. Feldstein M. The euro and the Stability Pact. Journal of Policy Modeling 27 4 (2005)
20. Forni L., and Momigliano S. Cyclical sensitivity of fiscal policies based on real-time data. Applied Economics Quarterly 50 3 (2004)
21. Franzese R.J. Electoral and partisan manipulation of public debt in developed democracies. In: Strauch R., and von Hagen J. (Eds). Institutions, politics and fiscal policy (2000), Kluwer Academic Publishers
22. Galí J., and Perotti R. Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe. Economic Policy 37 October (2003)
23. Hallerberg M., and Strauch R. On the cyclicality of public finances in Europe. Empirica 29 3 (2002)
24. Hansen L. Large sample properties of generalized method of moments estimators. Econometrica 50 3 (1982)
25. IMF (2004, September). World economic outlook. No. 74.
26. Larch, M., & Salto, M. (2003, October). Fiscal rules, inertia and discretionary fiscal policy. European Economy. Economic papers, monographic issue, No. 194.
27. Levi M.D. Errors in variables bias in the presence of correctly measured variables. Econometrica 41 5 (1973)
28. Manasse, P. (2006, January). Procyciclical fiscal policy: Shocks, rules, and institutions-A view from MARS. IMF working paper.
29. Mélitz, J. (2000). Some cross-country evidence about fiscal policy behaviour and consequences for EMU. European Economy, No. 2.
30. Mélitz J. Debt, deficits and the behaviour of monetary and fiscal authorities. In: Buti M., Martinez-Mongay C., and von Hagen J. (Eds). The Behavior of Fiscal Authorities - Stabilization, Growth and Institutions (2002), Palgrave
31. Mink, M., & de Haan, J. (2005, September). Has the stability and growth pact impeded political budget cycles in the European Union? CESifo working paper, No. 1532.
32. Mohr, M. (2005, July). A trend-cycle(-season) filter. European Central Bank. Working paper series, No. 499.
33. OECD (2003, December). Economic outlook. No. 74.
34. Orphanides, A. (1998). Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information. Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics Discussion Series, No. 1998/50.
35. Orphanides A. Monetary policy rules based on real-time data. American Economic Review 91 September (4) (2001)
36. Orphanides A., and van Norden S. The unreliability of output-gap estimates in real-time. The Review of Economics and Statistics 84 4 (2002)
37. Rogoff K., and Siebert A. Elections and macroeconomic policy cycles. Review of Economic Studies LV (1988) 1-16
38. Routledge. The Europa world year book 2005. 46th ed. (2005), Routledge, London and New York
39. Taylor J.B. Reassessing discretionary fiscal policy. Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 3 (2000)
40. Van den Noord P. Automatic stabilizers in the 1990s and beyond. In: Buti M., Martinez-Mongay C., and von Hagen J. (Eds). The behavior of fiscal authorities-Stabilization, growth and institutions (2002), Palgrave
41. von Hagen, J. (2002, June). More growth for stability-Reflections on fiscal policy in Euroland. ZEI policy paper.
42. von Hagen J., Hallett A.H., and Strauch R. Quality and success of budgetary consolidation. In: Buti M., Martinez-Mongay C., and von Hagen J. (Eds). The behavior of fiscal authorities-Stabilization, growth and institutions (2002), Palgrave
43. Wyplosz, C. (1999). Economic Policy Coordination in EMU: Strategies and Institutions. ZEI policy paper, No. B11.