How important is "regression to the mean" in area-based crime prevention research?

Crime Prevention and Community Safety

Volumn 8, Issue 1, 2006, Pages 50-60

  Farrington, David P ^a   Welsh, Brandon C ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS LOWELL   (United States)

Author keywords

crime prevention; evaluation; metaanalysis; regression to the mean; street lighting

Indexed keywords

EID: 33750501559     PISSN: 14603780     EISSN: 17434629     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.cpcs.8150017     Document Type: Article

References (22)

1. Campbell, D. T. and Kenny, D. A. (1999). A Primer on Regression Artefacts. New York: Guilford Press.
2. Dodd, T., Nicholas, S., Povey, D. and Walker, A. (2004). Crime in England and Wales, 2003/2004. London: Home Office (Statistical Bulletin 10/04).
3. Farrington, D. P. (1983). Randomized Experiments on Crime and Justice. In Tonry, M. and Morris, N. (eds.) Crime and Justice, Vol (4). Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 257-308.
4. Farrington, D. P. (2003a). British Randomized Experiments on Crime and Justice. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science (589), pp. 150-167. (Pubitemid 37089337)
5. Farrington, D. P. (2003b). Methodological Quality Standards for Evaluation Research. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science (587), pp. 49-68.
6. Farrington, D. P. and Painter, K. A. (2003). How to Evaluate the Impact of CCTV on Crime. Crime Prevention and Community Safety 5 (3), pp. 7-16.
7. Farrington, D. P. and Welsh, B. C. (2002). Effects of Improved Street Lighting on Crime: A Systematic Review. London: Home Office (Research Study No. 251).
8. Farrington, D. P. and Welsh, B. C. (2004). Measuring the Effects of Improved Street Lighting on Crime: A Reply to Dr. Marchant. British Journal of Criminology (44), pp. 448-467. (Pubitemid 39080615)
9. Farrington, D. P. and Welsh, B. C. (2005). Randomized Experiments in Criminology: What Have we Learned in the Last Two Decades? Journal of Experimental Criminology (1), pp. 9-38. (Pubitemid 41310187)
10. Farrington, D. P. and Welsh, B. C. (2006). A Half-Century of Randomized Experiments on Crime and Justice. In Tonry, M. (ed.) Crime and Justice, Vol 34. Chicago: University of Chicago Press (in press).
11. Farrington, D. P., Gill, M., Waples, S. J. and Argomaniz, J. (2005). The Effects of CCTV on Crime: Meta-Analysis of an English National Quasi-Experimental Multi-Site Evaluation. Unpublished paper.
12. Johnson, S. D., Bowers, K. J., Jordan, P., Mallender, J., Davidson, N. and Hirschfield, A. F. G. (2004). Evaluating Crime Prevention Scheme Success: Estimating " Outcomes ", or How Many Crimes were Prevented. Evaluation (10), pp. 327-348.
13. Jones, H. E. (2005). Measuring Effect Size in Area-Based Crime Prevention Research. Unpublished M.Phil. Thesis, Statistical Laboratory, Cambridge University.
14. Kodz, J. and Pease, K. (2003). Reducing Burglary Initiative: Early Findings on Burglary Reduction. London: Home Office (Findings No. 204).
15. Lipsey, M. W. and Wilson, D. B. (2001). Pratical Meta-Analysis. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
16. Maltz, M. D., Gordon, A. C., McDowall, D. and McCleary, R. (1980). An Artifact in Pretest-Posttest Designs: How it can Mistakenly Make Delinquency Programs Look Effective. Evaluation Review (4), pp. 225-240.
17. Marchant, P. (2004). A Demonstration that the Claim that Brighter Lighting Reduces Crime is Unfounded. British Journal of Criminology (44), pp. 441-447. (Pubitemid 39080614)
18. Marchant, P. (2005). What Works? A Critical Note on the Evaluation of Crime Reduction Initiatives. Crime Prevention and Community Safety 7 (2), pp. 7-13.
19. Martinson, R. (1974). What Works? Questions and Answers About Prison Reform. The Public Interest (55), pp. 22-54.
20. Martinson, R. (1979). New Findings, New Views: A Note of Caution About Sentencing Reform. Hofstra Law Review (7), pp. 243-258.
21. Painter, K. A. and Farrington, D. P. (1997). The Crime Reducing Effect of Improved Street Lighting: The Dudley Project. In Clarke, R.V. (ed.) Situational Crime Prevention: Successful Case Studies 2nd ed. Guilderland NY: Harrow and Heston, pp. 209-226.
22. Tilley, N., Pease, K., Hough, M. and Brown, R. (1999). Burglary Prevention: Early Lessons from the Crime Reduction Programme. London: Home Office (Crime Reduction Research Series Paper 1).