Simulated ecosystem threshold responses to co-varying temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 within a region of Amazonia

Global Ecology and Biogeography

Volumn 15, Issue 6, 2006, Pages 553-566

  Cowling, Sharon A ^a   Shin, Younglan ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO   (Canada)

Author keywords

Amazon; Atmospheric CO2 change; Carbon storage; Climate change; Dynamic global vegetation model; Ecological thresholds; LPJ; Plant functional types; Tropical forests

Indexed keywords

CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM MODELING; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECT; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); TEMPERATURE EFFECT; TROPICAL FOREST;

AMAZONIA; SOUTH AMERICA;

EID: 33750376153     PISSN: 1466822X     EISSN: 14668238     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2006.00256.x     Document Type: Article

References (65)

1. Alcock, J. (2003) Positive feedback and system resilience from graphical and finite-difference models: The Amazon ecosystem - an example. Earth Interactions, 7, paper 5.
2. Barlow, J. & Peres, C.A. (2004) Ecological responses to El Niño-induced surface fires in central Brazilian Amazonia: management implications for flammable tropical forests. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B, Biological Sciences, 359, 367-380.
3. Betts, R.A., Cox, P.M., Collins, M., Harris, P.P., Huntingford, C. & Jones, C.D. (2004) The role of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate warming. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 78, 157-175.
4. Botta, A., Ramankutty, N. & Foley, J.A. (2002) Long-term variations of climate and carbon fluxes over the Amazon Basin. Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 1319. doi: 10.1029/2001GL013607.
5. Cao, M., Prince, C.D., Small, J. & Goetz, S.J. (2004) Remotely-sensed inter-annual variations and trends in terrestrial net primary productivity: 1981-2000. Ecosystems, 7, 233-242.
6. Chambers, J.Q. & Silver, W. (2004a) Some aspects of ecophysiological and biogeochemical responses of tropical forests to atmospheric change. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B, Biological Sciences, 359, 463-476.
7. Chambers, J.Q., Tribuzy, E.S., Toledo, L.C., Crispim, B.F., Higuchi, N., dos Santos, J., Araújo, A.C., Kruijt, B., Nobre, A.D. & Trumbore, S.E. (2004b) Respiration from a tropical forest ecosystem: partitioning of sources and low carbon efficiency. Ecological Applications, 14, S72-S88.
8. 2 uncoupling. Science, 285, 1500-1501.
9. Cowling, S.A., Cox, P.M., Betts, R.A., Ettwein, V.J., Johnes, C.D., Maslin, M.A. & Spall, S.A. (2004) Contrasting simulated past and future responses of the Amazon forest to atmospheric change. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B, Biological Sciences, 359, 539-547.
10. Cox, P.M., Betts, R.A., Collins, M., Harris, P.P., Huntingford, C. & Jones, C.D. (2004) Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 78, 137-156.
11. Cramer, W., Bondeau, A., Schaphoff, S., Lucht, W., Smith, B. & Sitch, S. (2004) Tropical forests and the global carbon cycle: Impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate change, and rate of deforestation. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B, Biological Sciences, 359, 331-343.
12. Cunningham, S.C. & Read, J. (2002) Comparison of temperate and tropical rainforest tree species: Photosynthetic responses to growth temperature. Oecologia, 133, 112-119.
13. 2, climate, and land-use effects. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 16 (4), 1092. doi: 10.1029/ 2001GB001426.
14. DeFries, R.S., Townsend, J.R.G. & Hansen, M.C. (1999) Continuous fields of vegetation characteristics at the global scale at 1-km resolution. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104, 16911-16925.
15. DeFries, R.S., Hansen, M.C., Townsend, J.R.G., Janetos, A.C. & Loveland, T.R. (2000) A new global 1-km dataset of percentage tree cover derived from remote sensing. Global Change Biology, 6, 247-254.
16. Eiswerth, M.E. & Haney, J.C. (2001) Maximizing conserved biodiversity: Why ecosystem indicators and thresholds matter. Ecological Economics, 38, 259-274.
17. Foley, J.A., Botta, A. & Coe, M.T. (2002) El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the climate, ecosystems and rivers of Amazonia. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 16, doi: 10.1029/2002GB001872.
18. García-Romero, A., Oropeza-Orozco, O. & Galicia-Sarmiento, L. (2004) Land-use systems and resilience of tropical rain forests in the Tehuantepec Isthmus, Mexico. Environmental Management, 34, 768-785.
19. 2. Global Change Biology, 10, 1223-1239.
20. Gordon, W.S., Famiglletti, J.S., Fowler, N.L., Kittel, T.G.F. & Hubbard, K.A. (2004) Validation of simulated runoff from six terrestrial ecosystem models: Results from VEMAP. Ecological Applications, 14, 527-545.
21. Haxeltine, A. & Prentice, I.C. (1996) BIOME3: An equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model based on ecophysiological constraints, resource availability, and competition among plant functional types. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10, 693-709.
22. 2 sources and sinks. Tellus B, 55, 345-363.
23. 4 plant abundance. Science, 293, 1647-1651.
24. Joos, F., Gerber, S., Prentice, I.C., Otto-Bliesner, B.L. & Valdes, P.J. (2004) Transient simulations of Holocene atmospheric carbon dioxide and terrestrial carbon storage since the Last Glacial Maximum. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 18, doi: 10.1029/2003GB002156.
25. Kaplan, J.O., Prentice, I.C., Knorr, W. & Valdes, P.J. (2002) Modeling the dynamics of terrestrial carbon storage since the Last Glacial Maximum. Geophysical Research Letters, 29 (22), doi: 10.1029/ 2002GL015230.
26. Keeley, J.E. & Rundel, P.W. (2003) Evolution of CAM and C-4 carbon-concentrating mechanisms. International Journal of Plant Sciences, 164, S55-S77.
27. 2 fertilization to affect the global carbon budget: A comparison of four terrestrial biosphere models. Tellus B, 51, 343-366.
28. Kucharik, C.J., Foley, J.A., Delire, C., Fisher, V.A., Coe, M.T., Lenters, J.D., Young-Molling, C., Ramankutty, N., Norman, J.M. & Gower, S.T. (2000) Testing the performance of a dynamic global ecosystem model: Water balance, carbon balance, and vegetation structure. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 14, 795-825.
29. Larsen, T.H., Williams, N.M. & Kremen, C. (2005) Extinction order and altered community structure rapidly disrupt ecosystem functioning. Ecology Letters, 8, 538-547.
30. Laurance, W.F. (2003) Slow burn: The insidious effects of surface fires on tropical forests. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 18, 209-212.
31. Laurance, W.F. & Williamson, G.B. (2001) Positive feedbacks among forest fragmentation, drought, and climate change. Conservation Biology, 15, 1529-1535.
32. 2 concentration and land use on natural ecosystems and the terrestrial carbon sink. Global Environmental Change, 14, 21-30.
33. Lindenmayer, D.B., Fischer, J. & Cunningham, R.B. (2005) Native vegetation cover thresholds associated with species responses. Biological Conservation, 124, 311-316.
34. Lucht, W., Prentice, I.C., Myneni, R.B., Sitch, S., Friedlingstein, P., Cramer, W., Bousquet, P., Buermann, W. & Smith, B. (2002) Climatic control of the high-latitude vegetation greening trend and Pinatubo effect. Science, 296, 1687-1689.
35. Malhi, Y., Baker, T.R., Phillips, O.L., Almeida, S., Alvarez, E., Arroyo, L., Chave, J., Czimczik, C.I., Di Fiore, A., Higuchi, N., Killeen, T.J., Laurance, S.G., Laurance, W.F., Lewis, S.L., Montoya, L.M.M., Monteagudo, A., Neil, D.A., Vargas, P.N., Paino, S., Pitman, N.C.A., Quesada, C.A., Salomao, R., Silva, J.N.M., Lezama, A.T., Martines, R.V., Terborgh, J., Vincet, B. & Lloyd, J. (2004) The above-ground coarse wood productivity of 104 neotropical forest plots. Global Change Biology, 10, 563-591.
36. Marengo, J.A., Miller, J.R., Russell, G.L., Rosenzweig, C.E. & Abramopoulos, F. (1994) Calculations of river-runoff in the GISS GCM: impact of a new land-surface parameterization and runoff routing model on the hydrology of the Amazon River. Climate Dynamics, 10, 349-361.
37. Mayer, A.L. & Rietkerk, M. (2004) The dynamic regime concept for ecosystem management and restoration. Bioscience, 54, 1013-1020.
38. 2, climate and land use effects with four process-based ecosystem models. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 15, 183-206.
39. New, M., Hulme, M. & Jones, P.D. (2000) Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part II: Development of 1901-96 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate. Journal of Climate, 13, 2217-2238.
40. New, M., Hulme, M. & Jones, P.D. (2003) LBA regional monthly climatology for the 20th century. Dataset on-line at http://www.daac.ornl.gov from Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA.
41. Olson, J.S., Watts, J.A. & Allison, L.J. (2003) Major world ecosystem complexes ranked by carbon in live vegetation. Dataset on-line at http://www.daac.ornl.gov from Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA.
42. Peterson, G., Allen, C.R. & Holling, C.S. (1998) Ecological resilience, biodiversity and scale. Ecosystems, 1, 6-18.
43. 2 flux variations over land and oceans. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 19, GB1011, doi: 10.1029/ 2003GB002214
44. Phillips, O.L., Malhi, Y., Higuchi, N., Laurance, W.F., Nunes, D.V., Vasquez, R.M., Laurance, S.G., Ferreira, L.V., Stern, M., Brown, S. & Grace, J. (1998) Changes in the carbon balance of tropical forests: Evidence from long-term plots. Science, 282, 439-442.
45. Post, W.M., King, A.W. & Wullschleger, S.D. (1997) Historical variations in terrestrial biospheric carbon storage. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 11, 99-109.
46. Post, W.M. & Zobler, L. (2000) Global soil types, 0.5-degree grid (Modified Zobler). Dataset available online at http://www.daac.ornl.gov from Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.
47. Potter, C., Klooster, S., de Carvalho, C.R., Genovese, V.B., Torregrosa, A., Dungan, J., Bobo, M. & Coughlan, J. (2001) Modeling seasonal and inter-annual variability in ecosystem carbon cycling for the Brazilian Amazon region. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106 (D10), 423-410.
48. Potter, C., Klooster, S., Steinbach, M., Tan, P., Kumar, V., Shekhar, S. & de Carvalho, C.R. (2004) Understanding global teleconnections of climate to regional model estimates of Amazon ecosystem carbon fluxes. Global Change Biology, 10, 693-703.
49. Prentice, I.C., Farquhar, G.D., Fasham, M.J.R., Goulden, M.L., Heimann, M., Jaramillo, V.J., Kheshgi, H.S., Le Quere, C., Scholes, R.J. & Wallace, D.W.R. (2001) The carbon cycle and atmospheric carbon dioxide. Climate change 2001: The scientific basis (ed. by J.T. Houghton, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. Van Der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell and C. A. Johnson), pp. 184-237. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
50. Radford, J.Q., Bennett, A.F. & Cheers, G.J. (2005) Landscape-level thresholds of habitat cover for woodland-dependent birds. Biological Conservation, 124, 317-337.
51. Raich, J.W. & Schlesinger, W.H. (1992) The global carbon dioxide flux in soil respiration and its relationship to vegetation and climate. Tellus B, 44, 81-99.
52. Raich, J.W., Potter, C.S. & Bhagawati, D. (2002) Inter-annual variability in global soil respiration: 1980-94. Global Change Biology, 8, 800-812.
53. Ramankutty, N. & Foley, J.A. (1999) Estimating historical changes in global land cover: Croplands from 1700 to 1992. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 13, 997-1027.
54. Reynolds, C.S. (2002) Ecological pattern and ecosystem theory. Ecological Modelling, 158, 181-200.
55. da Rocha, H.R., Nobre, C.A., Bonatti, J.P., Wright, I.R. & Sellers, P.J. (1996) A vegetation-atmosphere interaction study for Amazonian deforestation using field data and a 'single column'model. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 122, 567-594.
56. 2 and climate change on tropical forests soils and biogeochemical cycling. Climatic Change, 39, 337-361.
57. Sitch, S., Smith, B., Prentice, I.C., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W., Kaplan, J.O., Levis, S., Lucht, W., Sykes, M.T., Thonicke, K. & Venevsky, S. (2003) Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model. Global Change Biology, 9, 161-185.
58. 2 and climate. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 19, GB2013, doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00569.x
59. Smith, B., Prentice, I.C. & Sykes, M.T. (2001) Representation of vegetation dynamics in the modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two contrasting approaches within European climate space. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 10, 621-637.
60. Stringham, T.K., Krueger, W.C. & Shaver, P.L. (2003) State and transition modeling: An ecological process approach. Journal of Range Management, 56, 106-113.
61. Tian, H., Melillo, J.M., Kicklighter, D.W., McGuire, A.D., Helfrich III, J., Moore III, B. & Vorosmarty, C.J. (2000) Climatic and biotic controls on annual carbon storage in Amazonian ecosystems. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 9, 315-335.
62. Townsend, A.R. & Vitousek, P.M. (1992) Carbon cycle feedbacks to increased global temperature. Climatic Change, 22, 293-303.
63. With, K.A., Pavuk, D.M., Worchuck, J.L., Oates, R.K. & Fisher, J.L. (2002) Threshold effects of landscape structure on biological control in agro-ecosystems. Ecological Applications, 12, 52-65.
64. Yuste, J.C., Janssens, I.A., Carrara, A., Meiresonne, L. & Ceulemans, R. (2003) Interactive effects of temperature and precipitation on soil respiration in a temperate maritime pine forest. Tree Physiology, 23, 1263-1270.
65. Zinke, P.J., Strangenberger, A.J., Post, W.M. & Olson, J.S. (2003) LBA regional organic soil carbon and nitrogen data (Zinke et al.). Dataset available online at http://www.daac.ornl.gov from Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA.