Explaining Taiwan's revisionist diplomacy

Journal of Contemporary China

Volumn 15, Issue 48, 2006, Pages 443-458

  Ross, Robert S ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

INDEPENDENCE; LEADERSHIP; POLICY MAKING; POLITICAL CONFLICT;

ASIA; CHINA; EURASIA; FAR EAST; TAIWAN;

EID: 33749035992     PISSN: 10670564     EISSN: 14699400     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/10670560600736442     Document Type: Article

References (86)

1. The text of the 2004 speech is available at: http://www.gio.gov.tw/ taiwan-website/4-oa/20041010/2004101002.html; the text of the 2006 speech is available at: http://www.gio.gov.tw/taiwan-website/4-oa/ 20060101/2006010101.html.
2. For a discussion of increasing tension on the Taiwan Strait, see Chas. W. Freeman, Jr, 'Preventing war in the Taiwan Strait: Restraining Taiwan - and Beijing', Foreign Affairs 77(4), (July/August 1998).
3. The classic statements of the level of analysis approach are David J. Singer, 'The level of analysis problem in international relations', in David J. Singer, Klaus Knorr and Sidney Verba, eds, The International System: Theoretical Essays (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1961);
4. Kenneth N. Waltz, Man, the State and War: A Theoretical Analysis (New York: Columbia University Press, 1959).
5. Important works on the sources of effective deterrence include William W. Kaufmann, 'The requirements of deterrence', in William W. Kaufmann, ed., Military Policy and National Security (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1956);
6. Glenn H. Snyder, Deterrence and Defense: Toward a Theory of National Security (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1961);
7. Alexander L. George and Richard Smoke, Deterrence in American Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice (New York: Columbia University Press, 1974);
8. Patrick M. Morgan, Deterrence Now (New York: Cambridge University Press 2003).
9. See, for example, China Post, (10 March 2004);
10. 'Highlights: Taiwan military and battlefield intelligence', FBIS (Foreign Broadcast Information Service), CPP20041225000021; AFP, (20 April 2004), FBIS, CPP20040420000080;
11. 'Highlights: Taiwan Ministry of National Defense Report 1 Sep 04', FBIS, CPP20040901000095; Defensenews.com, (9 March 2005).
12. For Taiwan's discussion of the ineffectiveness of missile defense, see, for example, Taipei Times, (23 October 2004), FBIS, CPP20041025000170;
13. Taipei Times, (21 June 2004), FBIS, CPOP20040621000166;
14. CAN, (28 June 2004), FBIS, CPP20040628000146;
15. Taipei Times, (13 March 2005), available at: http://www.taipeitimes.com/ News/taiwan/archives/2005/03/13/2003246041; for an analytical discussion of the weaknesses of the PAC-3 system for Taiwan, see James. M. Lindsay and Michael E. O'Hanlon, Defending America: The Case for Limited National Missile Defense (Washington, DC: Brookings, 2001), pp. 123-130.
16. Interviews with Taiwan military and civilian officials, January 2004 and January 2005; 'Highlights: Taiwan Ministry of National Defense Report 24 Aug 04', FBIS, CPP20040824000163;
17. 'Highlights, Taiwan daily papers Internet versions 20 October 04', FBIS, CPP20041020000101;
18. 'Highlights: Taiwan Ministry of National Defense Report 07 Sept 04', FBIS, CPP20040907000078.
19. T. Y. Wang, 'Lifting the "no haste, be patient" policy: Implications for cross-Strait relations', Cambridge Review of International Affairs 15(1), (2002), pp. 131-139;
20. Sheng Lijun, China and Taiwan: Cross-Strait Relations under Chen Shui-bian (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Relations, 2002).
21. For a Taiwan government discussion of the growing danger of dependence, see, for example, Central News Agency (CNA), (13 January 2004), FBIS, CPP20040112000209.
22. Central News Agency, (10 January 2006), FBIS, 200601101477.1_b8900019543e0768.
23. 'Editorial', Taipei Times, (13 June 2004), available at: http://taipeitimes.com/News/edit/arhives/2004/06/13/2003174891; CNA, (7 August 2002), FBIS, CPP20020807000167;
24. Central News Agency, (21 October 2002), FBIS, CPP20021022000004
25. Zhongguo Xinwenshe, (3 January 2004), FBIS, CPP20040103000056
26. 'Government approves TSMC's wafer project', China Post, (1 May 2004);
27. Zhongguo Xinwenshe, (18 February 2004), FBIS, CPP20040228000102; Renmin Ribao, (26 December 2004), FBIS, CPP20031226000049;
28. Taipei Times, (6 January 2004), FBIS, CPP20040106000145.
29. CNA, (8 October 2004), FBIS, CPP20041008000185;
30. 'Highlights: Taiwan Legislative Yuan', (19 October 2004), FBIS, CPP20041019000208;
31. Taipei Times, (6 March 2005), available at: http://www.taipeitimes.com/ News/taiwan/archives/2005/03/06/2003225665.
32. See, for example, 'Highlights: Taiwan Ministry of National Defense Report 19 Oct 04', FBIS, CPP20041019000097;
33. Taipei Times, (3 March 2004), available at: http://www.taipeitimes.com/ News/taiwan/archives/2005/03/03/2003225283
34. Taipei Times, (25 March 2005), available at: http://taipeitimes.com/News/ taiwan/archives/2005/03/25/2003247677.
35. 'FBIS report', (26 September 2004), FBIS, CPP20040926000026;
36. Lilian Wu, '63% favor cross-Strait peace agreement', CNA, (22 July 2004), retrieved from Lexis-Nexis at: http://web.lexis-nexis.com.ezp2.harvard.edu/universe/document?_m= c1bc872511b58baa4015b41d5eed9d00&_docnum=1&wchp= dGLbVtz-zSkVA&_md5=41bd41e5c8a65bf7d2c1d44d4d774b76.
37. Frequent annual interviews with Taiwan civilian and military officials conducted since 2000; interview, senior Taiwan military intelligence officer, December 2005.
38. For a discussion of the role of popular nationalism in China's Taiwan policy, see Zhao Suisheng, A Nation-State by Construction: Dynamics of Modern Chinese Nationalism (Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press, 2004);
39. Joseph Fewsmith and Stanley Rosen, 'The domestic context of Chinese foreign policy: Does public opinion matter?', in David M. Lampton, ed., The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform, 1978-2000 (Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press, 2001).
40. For a discussion of the concept of calculated risk and related concepts, see Snyder, Deterrence and Defense, p. 29; and
41. George and Smoke, Deterrence in American Foreign Policy, pp. 60, 525-526.
42. See also Robert Jervis, 'Deterrence and perception', in Steven E. Miller, ed., Strategy and Nuclear Deterrence (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1984); and
43. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, The War Trap (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1981);
44. Robert Jervis, The Illogic of American Nuclear Strategy (New York: Columbia University Press, 1984), pp. 46-47.
45. The best statement of this remains Glenn Snyder, 'The security dilemma in alliance politics', World Politics 36 (4), (July 1984).
46. For a full development of this concept regarding the Taiwan Strait, see Thomas J. Christensen, 'The contemporary security dilemma: Deterring a Taiwan conflict', Washington Quarterly 25(4), (Autumn 2002).
47. On the US pursuit of 'pivotal deterrance' in the Taiwan Strait, see Timothy W. Crawford, Pivotal Deterrence: Third-Party Statecraft and the Pursuit of Peace (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2003), pp. 187.
48. The best discussion of the nuances of US policy is Alan Romberg, Rein in at the Brink of the Precipice: American Policy toward Taiwan and US - PRC Relations (Washington, DC: The Henry L. Stimson Center, 2003).
49. Frequent annual interviews with Taiwan civilian and military officials and with independent scholars and opposition politicians conducted since 2000.
50. Frequent annual interviews with Taiwan civilian and military officials conducted since 2000.
51. 'Highlights: Taiwan Legislative Yuan 19 May 2004', FBIS, CPP20040519000278;
52. 'Highlights: Taiwan Ministry of National Defense Report 6 May 05', FBIS, CPP20040506000074;
53. 'Highlights: Taiwan Ministry of National Defense Report 25 June 04', FBIS, CPP20040625000065;
54. 'Highlights: Taiwan Legislative Yuan 19 May 2004', FBIS, CPP20040519000278.
55. The US concern is reflected in Office of the Secretary of Defense, US Department of Defense, The Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2005 (Washington, DC: US Department of Defense, 2005), available at: http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Jul2005/d20050719china.pdf.
56. See, for example, Rich Chang, 'Taiwan "identity" growing', Taipei Times, (12 March 2006), available at: http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2006/03/12/2003296948.
57. See the data from public opinion polls compiled by the Mainland Affairs Commission of the Government of Taiwan.
58. This and other aspects of the changing identity of the Taiwan population are assessed in Chu Yun-han, 'Taiwanese nationalism and its implications: Testing the worst-case scenario', Asian Survey 44(4), (July/August 2004);
59. G. Andy Chang and T. Y. Wang, 'Taiwan or Chinese? Independence or unification? An analysis of generational differences in Taiwan', Journal of Asian and African Studies 40(1&2), (2005).
60. See, for example, Zhongguo Xinwenshe, (3 January 2004), FBIS, CPP20040103000056; interview with official from Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council, January 2004;
61. Mark Magnier, 'Unions across a divide', Los Angeles Times, (22 November 2004), p. 1;
62. Xinhua, (9 February 2004), FBIS, CPP20040209000131;
63. Zhongguo Xinwenshe, (28 February 2004), FBIS, CPP20040228000102;
64. Xinhua, (28 February 2004), FBIS, CPP2003022800083.
65. See the Taiwan Mainland Affairs Council's line graph of public opinion trends regarding Taiwan-mainland relations at http://www.mac.gov.tw/ english/english/pos/9211/9211e_1.gif.
66. Associated Press, (15 December 2003); 'FBIS report', (16 January 2004), FBIS, CPP20040116000193; Agence France Presse, (18 January 2004), FBIS, CPP20040118000010; 'FBIS report', (2 February 2004), FBIS, CPP20040202000013; 'FBIS report', (10 February 2004), FBIS, CPP20040217000222.
67. See the report of Taiwan poll results in FBIS, 200505021477.16́40369a159feb7.
68. Interviews with KMT leaders, December 2005; Xinhua, (8 July 2005), FBIS, 200507081477. 1_d0e600a3150297bc.
69. 'Highlights: Taiwan daily papers Internet versions 30 April, 1 May 05', FBIS, CPP20050502000081; TVBS, available at: http://www.tvbs.com.tw/ FILE_DB/DL_DB/rickliu/200505/rickliu-20050505142339.pdf
70. Peter S. Goodman, 'Taiwan nationalist cites "consensus" with Chinese on ending hostilities', Washington Post, (Wednesday 4 May 2005), p. 1. On Chen's poll figures, see Agence France Presse, (19 May 2005), FBIS, CPP20050519000044.
71. Agence France Presse, (16 December 2005), FBIS, 200512161477.1אb800258848edb1.
72. Taipei Times (Internet Version), (12 May 2004), FBIS, CPP20040512000167; Central News Agency, (12 May 2004), FBIS, CPP20040512000186;
73. Taipei Times, (26 May 2004), p. 3, available at: http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2004/05/26/2003156987
74. Taipei Times, (7 May 2005), p. 1, available at: http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2005/05/07/2003253504
75. Jewel Huang, 'DPP lawmakers plan to boycott China policy debate', Taipei Times, (24 March 2006), FBIS, 200603241477.1_2cb0006312b95eba.
76. This is the case. See Dafydd Fell, 'Measuring and explaining party change in Taiwan: 1991-2004', Journal of East Asian Studies 5(1), (January-April 2005).
77. For a discussion of the role of risk propensity in decision making, see Bueno de Mesquita, The War Trap.
78. On Mao's policy making style, see Michel Oksenberg, 'Mao's policy commitments, 1921-1976', Problems of Communism 25, (November-December 1979).
79. For a discussion of Chen's 'dictatorial decision-making', including his total disregard for his foreign policy advisors within the DPP government, see Chen Mumin, 'From five no's to referendum: Making of national security policy in Taiwan, 2000-2004, paper prepared for the 19th Annual Conference of the Association of Chinese Political Studies, Louisville, Kentucky (31 March-2 April 2006).
80. See former Assistant Secretary of State James A. Kelly's assessment of Taiwan's resistance to private diplomacy in James A. Kelly, 'US East Asia policy', PacNet no. 9, (7 March 2005), available at: http://www.csis.org/pacfor/pac0509.pdf.
81. Charles Snyder, 'US observers say fallout from NUC can be managed', Taipei Times, (3 March 2006), FBIS, CPP20060303968014;
82. China Times, (28 February 2006), FBIS, 200602281477.1_650a007f190ec67e;
83. China Post, (7 April 2006), available at: http://www.chinapost.com.tw/ archive/detail.asp?cat=1&id=77876. Note that Taiwan's Chinese language statement regarding the NUC used the Chinese-language term zhongzhi, which means 'to cancel'.
84. Interviews with DPP party and government officials, January 2005.
85. For a fuller development of this argument, see Robert S. Ross, 'Taiwan's fading independence movement', Foreign Affairs 85(1), (March-April 2006).
86. An April 2006 poll reported that only 13% of respondents disproved of the 'one-China, different interpretations' formula supported by the KMT; 50% supported the formula. See China Post, (6 April 2006), available at: http://www.chinapost.com.tw/backissue/taiwan/ detail.asp?ID=79898&GRP=B.