Simulating the value of El Niño forecasts for the Panama Canal

Advances in Water Resources

Volumn 29, Issue 11, 2006, Pages 1665-1677

  Graham, Nicholas E ^a   Georgakakos, Konstantine P ^a   Vargas, Carlos ^b   Echevers, Modesto ^b  

^a HYDROLOGIC RESEARCH CENTER   (United States)

^b Panama Canal Authority   (Panama)

Author keywords

El Ni o forecasts; Forecast uncertainty; Management under uncertainty; Panama Canal management; Seasonal forecasting

Indexed keywords

COMPUTER SIMULATION; CORRELATION METHODS; RAIN; STREAM FLOW; WEATHER FORECASTING;

CORRELATION COEFFICIENT; FORECAST UNCERTAINTY; RAIN-FED STREAMFLOW; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST); SEASONAL FORECASTING;

CANALS;

CANALS; COMPUTER SIMULATION; CORRELATION METHODS; RAIN; STREAM FLOW; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EL NINO; ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT; FORECASTING METHOD; INFLOW; OPTIMIZATION; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SIMULATION; WATER MANAGEMENT;

CENTRAL AMERICA; GATUN LAKE; PANAMA [CENTRAL AMERICA]; PANAMA CANAL; PANAMA CANAL ZONE;

EID: 33748414672     PISSN: 03091708     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2005.12.005     Document Type: Article

References (17)

1. Dononso M., Vargas C., Castillero M., Martinez D., Leaman K., and Nakayama M. Panama Canal case study. In: Glantz M.H. (Ed). Once burned, twice shy: lessons learned from the 1997-1998 El Niño (2001), United Nations University Press, Tokyo 294
2. Enfield D.B., and Alfaro E.J. The dependence of Caribbean rainfall on the interaction of the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans. J Climate 12 (1999) 2093-2103
3. Estoque M.A., Luque J., Chandeck-Montzea M., and Garcia J. Effects of El Niño on Panama rainfall. Geofis Int 24 (1985) 355-381
4. Georgakakos K.P., Graham N.E., Carpenter T.M., Georgakakos A.P., and Yao H. Forecasts and multiobjective reservoir management in Northern California. EOS 86 12 (2005) 122 127
5. Georgakakos K.P., and Sperfslage J.A. Operational rainfall and flow forecasting for the Panama Canal watershed. In: Harmon R.S. (Ed). Rio Charges, a multidisciplinary profile of a tropical watershed (2005), Springer, New York 354 [chapter 22]
6. Ji M., Kumar A., and Leetmaa A. A multiseason climate forecast system at the National Meteorological Center. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 75 (1994) 569-577
7. Ji M., Kumar A., and Leetmaa A. An experimental coupled forecast system at the National Meteorological Center: some early results. Tellus 46A (1994) 398-418
8. Ji M., Leetmaa A., and Derber J. An ocean analysis system for seasonal to interannual climate studies. Mon Weather Rev 123 (1995) 460-481
9. Kirtman BP, Shukla J, Balmaseda, M, Graham, N, Penland C, Xue Y, et al. Current status of ENSO forecast skill. A report to the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Numerical Experimentation Group (NEG), CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction, 2002. Available from: http://www.clivar.org/publications/wg_reports/wgsip/nino3/report.htm.
10. Latif M., and Graham N.E. How much predictive skill is contained in the thermal structure of an OGCM?. J Phys Oceanogr 22 (1992) 951-962
11. Nelder J.A., and Mead R. A simplex method for function minimization. Comput J 7 (1965) 308-313
12. Panama Canal Authority, 2003. 2003 Annual Report. Available from: www.pancanal.com/eng/general/reporte-anual/index.html [accessed May 11, 2005].
13. Press W.H., Flannery B.P., Teukolsky S.A., and Vetterling W.T. Numerical recipes: the art of scientific computing (1992), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK p. 408-12
14. Reynolds R.W., and Smith T.M. Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimum interpolation. J Climate 7 (1994) 929-948
15. Ropelewski C.F., and Halpert M.S. Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 115 (1987) 1606-1626
16. Smith T.M., and Reynolds R.W. Extended reconstruction of global sea surface temperatures based on COADS data (1854-1997). J Climate 16 (2003) 1495-1510
17. World Bank, 2005. Available from: www.worldbank.org/data/databytopic/GDP.pdf [accessed May 11, 2005].