Japan's Goldilocks strategy

Washington Quarterly

Volumn 29, Issue 4, 2006, Pages 111-127

  Samuels, Richard J ^a  

^a MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 33748109157     PISSN: 0163660X     EISSN: 15309177     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1162/wash.2006.29.4.111     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Sadako Ogata, Normalization With China: A Comparative Study of the U.S. and Japanese Processes (Berkeley: University of California Institute of East Asian Studies, 1988), p. 99.
2. Hisahiko Okazaki, A Grand Strategy for Japanese Defense (Lanham, Md.: University Press of America, 1986), pp. 75-76, 129.
3. Saburo Ienaga, The Pacific War, 1931-1945: A Critical Perspective on Japan's Role in World War II (New York: Pantheon, 1978), pp. 33-54.
4. Shinichi Kitaoka, "Sengo Nihon no Gaiko Shiso [The concept of postwar Japanese diplomacy]," in Sengo Nihon Gaiko Ronshu [Collected essays on postwar Japanese diplomacy], ed. Shinichi Kitaoka (Tokyo: Chuo Koronsha, 1995), pp. 11-12.
5. Chihiro Hosoya, "Retrogression in Japan's Foreign Policy Decision-Making Process," in Dilemmas of Growth in Prewar Japan, ed. J. W. Morley (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1971), p. 92.
6. See "Shinsenryaku o Motomete [Searching for a new strategy]," Asahi Shimbun, April 2006 (year-long series).
7. Okazaki, A Grand Strategy for Japanese Defense, pp. 75-76, 129.
8. Jain Purendra and Takashi Inoguchi, Japanese Politics Today (London: St. Martin's Press, 1996), p. xv.
9. Chinese officials, interviews with author, Seoul, December 2005;
10. Chinese officials, interviews, with author, Tokyo, May 2006;
11. Cheol Hee Park, "Japanese Conservatives' Conception of Japan as a Normal Country: Comparing Ozawa, Nakasone, and Ishihara" (unpublished paper, "Japan as a Normal Country" project, Shibusawa Foundation, Tokyo, 2005). Park makes this point but does not share this view.
12. For an evaluation of contemporary Japanese techno-nationalism, see Richard J. Samuels, "Give and Take: The Outlook for U.S.-Japan Industrial Cooperation," Armed Forces Journal (February 2006): 24-29.
13. Robert Jervis, "Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma," World Politics 30, no. 2 (January 1978): 167-214.
14. Christopher W. Hughes, "Japanese Military Modernization: In Search of a 'Normal' Security Role," in Strategic Asia 2005-2006: Military Modernization in an Era of Uncertainty, eds. Ashley J. Tellis and Michael Wills (Seattle: National Bureau of Asian Research, 2005), p. 124.
15. Narushige Michishita, "The Changing Faces of Defense Policy: Past and Future," in Global Economic Review 32, no. 4 (2002): 91-93.
16. "United States-Japan Strategic Dialogue: Beyond the Defense Guidelines," Issues & Insights 1, no. 1 (May 2001): 1-2 ("Agenda for the U.S.-Japan Alliance: Rethinking Roles and Missions" by Michael J. Green and Robin "Sak" Sakoda referring to a "maturing alliance");
17. Paul R. Daniels, "Beyond 'Better than Ever': Japanese Independence and the Future of the U.S.-Japan Relationship," IIPS Policy Paper, no. 308E (July 2004), p. 11 (speaking of "erosion");
18. James L. Schoff, Tools for Trilateralism: referring to τinkering").
19. National Institute for Defense Studies, ed., 2001-2002 Report on Defense and Strategic Studies: Council of Defense-Strategic Studies (Tokyo: National Institute for Defense Studies, 2003), p. 17.
20. For an incisive analysis of these differences, see Takashi Shiraishi, "Toajia Kyodotaino Kochiku wa Kanno Ka? [Is it possible to create an East Asian community?]," Chuo Koron (January 2006): 118-127.
21. See also Bungei Shinju, ed., Nihon no Ronten: 2006 [Issues for Japan: 2006] (Tokyo: Bungei Shinju, 2005), p. 197.
22. See Terumasa Nakanishi, "Nihonkoku Kakubuso e no Ketsudan [Japan's decision to go nuclear]," Shokun (August 2003): 22-37. Nakanishi is a sometimes supporter of the alliance. For less ambiguity,
23. see Susumu Nishibe, "Kakubusoron ga Jishu Boei e no Michi o Kirihiraku [The debate over nuclear armament will pave the way for autonomous defense]," Seiron (September 2003): 86-98;
24. Susumu Nishibe, "Amerika Senryaku ni Haramareru Kyoki [The madness inherent in American strategy]," Seiron (April 2003): 64-77.
25. See Yoshihide Soeya, Nihon no "Midoru Pawaa" [Japan's "middle power" diplomacy: Postwar Japan's choices and conceptions] (Tokyo: Chikuma Shinsho, 2005).
26. These plans are laid out by one such group, Peace Depot, on their home page and in associated reports. See http://www.peacedepot.org/e-news/ frame.html.
27. For links to reports on activities of these groups, see http://www.worldpeacenow.jp.
28. Government of Japan, National Defense Program Guidelines (provisional translation), 2004, pp. 5-6.
29. For a good example, see Shigeru Ishiba, Kokubo [National defense] (Tokyo: Shinchosha, 2005).
30. For a prominent example, see Kenichi Ito, Japan's Identity: Neither East nor West (Tokyo: Japan Forum on International Relations, 2000), p. 1.
31. See also Japan Forum on International Relations, ed., New World Order of No-War Community and Future of Japan-U.S. Alliance (Tokyo: Japan Forum on International Relations, 2004).
32. James J. Przystup, "Dialogue of the Almost Deaf," Comparative Connections 6, no. 1 (First quarter 2004), http://www.ciaonet.org.
33. Takafumi Ohtomo, "Bandwagoning to Dampen Suspicion: NATO and the U.S.-Japan Alliance After the Cold War,: International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, no. 3 (2003): 29-55.
34. Akihiko Tanaka, "Yosan Iinkai Kochokai Giroku: Dai Ichi Go [Budget committee public hearings: Number one]," February 23, 2005, p. 18 (testimony before the House of Representatives Budget Committee).
35. For the introduction of the concept of a "dual hedge," see Eric Heginbotham and Richard J. Samuels, "Japan's Dual Hedge," Foreign Affairs 81, no. 5 (September/October 2002): 110-121.
36. See also Hughes, "Japanese Military Modernization," pp. 105-134.
37. See Soeya, Nihon no "Midoru Pawaa"
38. Takashi Shiraishi, Teikoku to Sono Genkai [Empire and its limits] (Tokyo: NTT, 2004).
39. National Institute for Defense Studies, ed., East Asia Strategic Review, 2005 (Tokyo: Japan Times, 2005), pp. 8, 35-36.
40. For a particularly clear example, see Fumio Ota, "Joho" to Kokka Senryaku ["Intelligence" and national strategy] (Tokyo: Fuyoshobo, 2005), p. 174.
41. Christopher W. Hughes, Japan's Security Agenda: Military, Economic, and Environmental Dimensions (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, 2004), p. 181.
42. See Mike M. Mochizuki, "Japan: Between Alliance and Autonomy," in Confronting Terrorism in the Pursuit of Power: Strategic Asia, 2004-2005,
43. eds. Ashley J. Tellis and Michael Wills (Seattle: National Bureau of Asian Research, 2004), p. 104. For the impact of the end of the Cold War on domestic Japanese politics,
44. see Richard J. Samuels, Machiavelli's Children: Leaders and Their Legacies in Italy and Japan (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 2003).
45. Rajan Menon, The End of Alliances (New York: Oxford University Press, 2006).
46. See Hughes "Japanese Military Modernization"
47. Daniels, "Beyond'Better than Ever.'"
48. Shigeru Ishiba, "Nitchu Arasowaba Katsu no wa Dotchi Da [If Japan and China were to fight, which one would win?]," Bungei Shunju, May 1, 2006, p. 141.
49. For the weighing of Japanese strategic options from the perspective of a former Ground Self-Defense Forces general, see Hiroaki Yokochi, "Chugoku no Tainichi Senryaku no Akumu: Nihon wa Chugaku to Do Mukaiaubeki Ka [The nightmare of China's Japan strategy: How should Japan confront China?]," Anzen Hosho o Kangaeru, no. 604 (September 2005).
50. Yukio Okamoto, "Japan and the United States: The Essential Alliance," The Washington Quarterly 25, no. 2 (Spring 2002): 61.
51. A senior U.S. alliance manager has already made this suggestion to Abe. U.S. official, interview with author, Tokyo, April 25, 2006. For Aso's speech, see "Statesmen's Forum With Taro Aso, Japan's Minister of Foreign Affairs," Center for Strategic and International Studies, May 3, 2006, http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_events/ task,view/id,975.
52. Terashima, "'Shinbei Nyuo' no Sogo Senryaku o Motomete [Seeking an integrated strategy for being both 'pro-American' and 'part of Asia']," Chuo Koron (March 1996):20-38.