The eurasian drug trade a challenge to regional security

Problems of Post-Communism

Volumn 53, Issue 4, 2006, Pages 10-28

  Cornell, Svante E ^a   Swanström, Niklas L P ^b  

^a JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UPPSALA UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 33747039277     PISSN: 10758216     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2753/PPC1075-8216530402     Document Type: Review

References (183)

1. Tamara Makarenko, "Terrorism and Transnational Organised Crime: The Emerging Nexus," in Transnational Violence and Seams of Lawlessness in the Asia-Pacific: Linkages to Global Terrorism ed. Paul Smith (Honolulu: Asia Pacific Center for Strategic Studies, 2004);
2. Kimberley Thachuk, "Transnational Threats: Falling Through the Cracks?" Low Intensity Conflict and Law Enforcement 10, no. 1 (2001): 47-67;
3. Sabrina Adamoli et al., Organized Crime Around the World (Helsinki: HEUNI, 1998);
4. Barbara Harris-White, Globalization and Insecurity: Political, Economic and Physical Challenges (New York: Palgrave, 2002);
5. Ivelaw Griffith, "From Cold War Geopolitics to Post-Cold War Geonarcotics," International Journal [Canadian Institute of International Affairs] 39, no. 1 (winter 1994): 1-36;
6. Richard Matthew and George Shambaugh, "Sex, Drugs, and Heavy Metal: Transnational Threats and National Vulnerabilities," Security Dialogue 29, no. 2 (1998): 163-75.
7. Defined as including the former Soviet republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, as well as Afghanistan and the Xinjiang-Uighur Autonomous Province of western China.
8. The literature on the drug trade in Central Asia consists mainly of United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime reports and a handful of articles and working papers. These include: Martha Brill Olcott and Natalia Udalova Zwart, "Drug Trafficking on the Great Silk Road," Working Paper no. 11 (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 2000);
9. Alexander Seger, Drugs and Development in the Central Asian Republics (Bonn: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit, 1996);
10. Kairat Osmonaliev, "Developing Counter-Narcotics Policy in Central Asia: Legal and Political Dimensions" (Silk Road Paper, Silk Road Studies Program, SAIS, Washington; Uppsala University, Department of Eurasian Studies, Uppsala, January 2005).
11. Transnational Organized Crime is defined by the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime, which entered into force in 2003. This article uses the UN definition of organized crime, briefly summarized as a structured group of three or more individuals created for the purpose of criminal activity, and whose operations or their effect have bearing on more than one country. The article also incorporates the definitions of the United Kingdom and Netherlands, among others, of "serious crimes," implying crimes with serious consequences for society. Primary among these is arguably the drug trade. For further details, see Svante E. Cornell and Niklas L.P. Swanström, Transnationell Brottslighet: Ett Säkerhetshot (Transnational Crime: A Security Threat) (Stockholm: Emergency Management Agency, 2005).
12. Barry Buzan, Ole Wæver, and Jaap de Wilde, Security: A New Frame work for Analysis (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1998), p. 37.
13. Security studies have traditionally focused on the state or the classical phenomena of security complexes. This has changed because international and regional systems are now more important, but also because of the emergence of subunits of states, such as regions or ethnic groups, as economic and political actors. See Niklas Swanström, Regional Cooperation and Conflict Management: Lessons from the Pacific Rim (Uppsala: Uppsala University, 2003);
14. Björn Hettne, Andras Inotai, and Osvaldo Sunkel, ed., The New Regionalism and the Future of Security and Development (New York: St. Martin's Press, 2000).
15. Fred Hirsh and Michael W. Doyle, "Politization in the World Economy: Necessary Conditions for an International Economic Order," in Alternatives to Monetary Disorder, ed. Doyle Hirsch and Edward L. Morse (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1977), pp. 11-66;
16. Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jörgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III, The Limits of Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome 's Project on the Predicament of Mankind (New York: Universe Books, 1972);
17. John G. Ruggie, "International Regimes, Transactions and Change: Embedded Liberalism in the Postwar Economic Order," International Organization 35, no. 2 (1982): 379-415.
18. The argument to keep it more narrow is that if the security concept was expanded, it would include everything and anything-every conceivable factor could be a security threat. The argument for widening the security concept is that the world is more complicated than the classical definitions allowed for, and there are security threats that constitute equal or worse threats to states, individuals and other sub-national entities than those included in the classical definition. For a more detailed discussion see Buzan et al., Security;
19. Richard Ullman, "Redefining Security," International Security 8, no. 1 (1993): 129-53;
20. Ole Wæver, "Securitization and Desecuritization," in On Security, ed. Ronnie D. Lipschutz (New York: Columbia University Press, 1995), pp. 46-87.
21. Mohammed Ayoob, The Third World Security Predicament: State Making, Regional Conflict, and the International System (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1995);
22. Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1981);
23. Edward D. Mansfield, Power, Trade, and War (Princeton; Princeton University Press, 1994).
24. Cornell and Swanström, Transnational Crime.
25. Ivelaw Griffith, in "From Cold War Geopolitics to Post-Cold War Geonarcotics," has taken the theoretical discussion further than most academics, although his case studies are for the greater part focused on the Caribbean.
26. Drug Control Headquarters, Islamic Republic of Iran, National Drug Control Report 2001 (Tehran, 2002);
27. U.S. Office of National Drug Control Policy, National Drug Control Strategy (Washington, DC: GPO, 1996-2004).
28. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Global Illicit Drug Trends (Vienna; United Nations, 2003).
29. International Narcotics Control Board, Report of the International Narcotics Control Board for 1999 (New York: United Nations Publications, 1999).
30. Rachel Ehrenfeld, Funding Evil: How Terrorism Is Financed and How to Stop It (Chicago: Bonus Books, 2003).
31. Buzan et al., Security.
32. See also Griffith, "From Cold War Geopolitics to Post-Cold War Geonarcotics," and Matthew and Shambaugh, "Sex, Drugs, and Heavy Metal."
33. Tamara Makarenko, "A Model of Terrorist-Criminal Relationships," Jane's Intelligence Review (August 1, 2003). Makarenko finds that more than one-third of the eighty groups studied have been systematically involved in organized crime.
34. Thachuk, "Transnational Threats," p. 51.
35. Alain Labrousse, Géopolitique des drogues (Paris: Presses Universitaires de France, 2004), p. 72;
36. Makarenko, "Terrorism and Transnational Organized Crime."
37. Thomas M. Sanderson, "Transnational Terror and Organized Crime: Blurring the Lines," SAIS Review 24, no. 1 (winter/spring 2004); 49-61.
38. Barbara Harris-White, "Globalization, Insecurities, and Responses: An Introductory Essay," in Globalization and Insecurity: Political, Economic, and Physical Challenges, ed. Barbara Harris-White (New York: Palgrave, 2002), pp. 1-42.
39. Phil Williams, "Transnational Criminal Networks," in Networks and Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime, and Militancy ed. John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt (Santa Monica, CA: Rand, 2000), pp. 61-97;
40. Melvin Levitzky, "Transnational Criminal Networks and International Security," Syracuse Journal of International Law and Commerce 30 (2003): 227-40;
41. Svante Cornell, "Crime Without Borders," Axess Magazine, no. 6 (2004): 18-21 (www.silkroadstudies.org/pub/0408Axess_EN.htm).
42. James D. Fearon, "Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer Than Others?" Journal of Peace Research 41, no. 3 (2004): 283-84;
43. Michael L. Ross, "What Do We Know About Natural Resources and Civil War?" Journal of Peace Research 41, no. 3 (2004); 337-56.
44. Svante Cornell, "Narcotics and Conflict; Tracing the Link and Its Implications," Working Paper (Uppsala University, Department of East European Studies, February 2005).
45. Tamara Makarenko, "Crime, Terror, and the Central Asian Drug Trade," Harvard Asia Quarterly 6, no. 3 (summer 2002);
46. Tamara Makarenko idem, "The Crime-Terror Continuum: Tracing the Interplay Between Transnational Crime and Terrorism," Global Crime 6, no. 1 (spring 2004): 129-45.
47. Tamara Makarenko idem, "The Crime-Terror Continuum: Tracing the Interplay Between Transnational Crime and Terrorism," Global Crime 6, no. 1 (2004): 129-45. Ibid.
48. Rensselaer W. Lee, "Perverse Effects of Andean Counternarcotics Policy," Orbis 46, no. 3 (summer 2002): 537-54;
49. Alain Labrousse, "Colombie; Le rôle de la drogue dans l'extension territoriale des FARC-EP (1978-2002)" (Columbia; The Role of Drugs in the Territorial Expansion of the FARC-EP [1978-2002]), Géopolitique des Drogues Illicites, Hérodote no. 112 (Paris; La Découverte, 2004);
50. Peter Chalk and Angel Rabasa, The Colombian Labyrinth: The Synergy of Drugs and Insurgency and Its Implications for Regional Stability (Santa Monica, CA: Rand, 2001);
51. Ana María Díaz and Fabio Sánchez, "Geography of Illicit Crops (Coca Leaf) and Armed Conflict in Colombia," Working Paper (London School of Economics, Crisis State Program, 2004).
52. Alan Dupont, "Transnational Crime, Drugs, and Security in East Asia," Asian Survey 39, no. 3 (1999): 433-55;
53. Pierre-Arnaud Chouvy, Les territoires de l'opium: Conflits et trafics du Triangle d'Or et du Croissant d'Or (Opium Lands: Conflicts and Trafficking in the Golden Triangle and the Golden Crescent) (Geneva: Editions Olizane, 2002). Most of the leaders of separatist organizations in Burma have been tied to narcotrafficking at some time. These include, but are not limited to, Peng Jiasheng and Liu Goushi of the MNDAA; Pao Yuqiang, Li Zuru, and Wei Xuekang of the UWSA; Mahtu Naw of the Kachin Defense Army (KDA); Yawd Serk of the Shan State Army South (SSA South); and U Sai Lin (Lin Mingxian) of the Eastern Shan State Army (ESSA). U Sai Lin's territory is probably the most used trafficking route because of its location along the border with China, (www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/para/wa.htm).
54. Thomas Köppel and A. Székely, "Transnational Organized Crime and Conflict in the Balkans," in Transnational Organized Crime and International Security: Business as Usual? ed. Mats Berdal and Mónica Serrano (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2002);
55. Ralf Mutschke, "The Threat Posed by Organized Crime, International Drug Trafficking, and Terrorism," written testimony to the Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime, U.S. House of Representatives. December 13, 2000 (www.theantidrug.com/pdfs/rmutschke.pdf).
56. Mark S. Steinitz, "Insurgents, Terrorists, and the Drug Trade, " Washington Quarterly 8, no. 4 (fall 1985): 141-53.
57. David E. Kaplan and Andrew Marshall, The Cult at the End of the World: The Incredible Story of Aum (New York: Crown, 1996).
58. "Italy Sees al-Qaeda Link to Human Trafficking," News International (Islamabad) (September 8, 2003).
59. A. Brownfeld, "Al-Qaeda's Drug Running Network," Jane's Terrorism and Security Monitor (February 1, 2004).
60. See, e.g., David Keen, "The Economic Functions of Violence in Civil Wars." Adelphi Paper no. 320 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1999);
61. also idem David Keen, "Incentives and Disincentives for Violence," in Greed and Grievance: Economic Agendas in Civil Wars, ed. Mats Berdal and David D. Malone (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2000), pp. 19-42.
62. Chalk and Rabasa, Colombian Labyrinth; Díaz and Sánchez, Geography of Illicit Crops.
63. David C. Jordan, Drug Politics: Dirty Politics and Democracies (Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 1999);
64. Louise Shelley, "Transnational Organized Crime: The New Authoritarianism," in The Illicit Global Economy and State Power, ed. H. Richard Friman and Peter Andreas (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 1999), pp. 25-51.
65. Thachuk, "Transnational Threats," p. 56.
66. Jordan, Drug Politics;
67. Raphael F. Perl, "State Crime: The North Korean Drug Trade," Global Crime 6, no. 1 (2004): 117-28;
68. Balbina Y. Hwang, "Curtailing North Korea's Illicit Activities," Heritage Foundation Backgrounder, no. 1679 (August 2003).
69. Jordan, Drug Politics, pp. 142-57.
70. The Paramilitary AUC in Colombia, the KKY in Burma, and the Kurdish village guards under Sedat Buçak in Turkey.
71. Dupont, "Transnational Crime, Drugs and Security";
72. Richard M. Gibson and John B. Haseman, "Prospects for Controlling Narcotics Production and Trafficking in Myanmar," Contemporary Southeast Asia 25, no. 1 (April 2003): 1-19.
73. Patrick L. Clawson and Rensselaer W. Lee III, The Andean Cocaine Industry (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1998), pp. 171-74;
74. Jordan, Drug Politics, pp. 158-70.
75. Arunas Juska and Peter Johnston, "The Symbiosis of Politics and Crime in Lithuania," Journal of Baltic Studies 34, no. 4 (2004): 346-59.
76. Peter Chalk, "Southeast Asia and the Golden Triangle's Heroin Trade: Threats and Response," Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 23, no. 2 (April 2000): 92;
77. Bertil Lintner, "Narcopolitics in Burma," Current History (December 1996): 605.
78. Griffith, "From Cold War Geopolitics to Post-Cold War Geonarcotics," p. 27.
79. Thachuk, "Transnational Threats";
80. Griffith, "From Cold War Geopolitics to Post-Cold War Geonarcotics," p. 4. The estimate of $300-5500 billion has been mysteriously stagnant the last fifteen years. The number is probably far higher than earlier suggested.
81. Chalk, "Southeast Asia and the Golden Triangle's Heroin Trade, " p. 95.
82. U.S. Department of State, International Narcotics Control Strategy Report 2004 (Washington: GPO, 2004), p. 505.
83. Griffith, "From Cold War Geopolitics to Post-Cold War Geonarcotics," p. 26.
84. Griffith, From Cold War Geopolitics to Post-cold War Geonarcotics, Ibid., p. 29.
85. S. La-Ongsri, "Narcotics Abuse Control and the Environment in Northern Thailand," Bulletin on Narcotics 44, no. 2 (1992): 33.
86. Griffith, "From Cold War Geopolitics to Post-Cold War Geonarcotics," pp. 30-31;
87. U.S. Congress, Senate, "Cocaine Production, Eradication, and the Environment: Policy, Impact, and Options," report prepared for the Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs, 101st Cong., report 101-0110 (August 1990), pp. 143-45.
88. Alexander Carius, Moira Feil, and Dennis Tänzler, Addressing Environmental Risks in Central Asia (New York: United Nations Development Programme, 2003).
89. "Region: Controversy over Herbicides and Coca," Andean Newsletter, no. 21 (1988): 7
90. quoted in Cynthia McClintock, "The War on Drugs: The Peruvian Case," Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs 30, no. 2/3 (1988): 134-35.
91. Griffith, "From Cold War Geopolitics to Post-Cold War Geonarcotics," p. 30.
92. D. Collins, H. Lapsley, J. LeCavalier, and E. Single, "Introduction: Improving Economic Data to Inform Decisions in Drug Control," Bulletin on Narcotics 52, nos. 1-2 (2000): 4-5.
93. Personal communication, Antonio Mazzitelli, UNODC representative, Tehran, December 2003;
94. personal communication, Narimani, National Drug Control Headquarters, Tehran, December 2003.
95. Rossiiskaia gazeta (May 12, 2004).
96. Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, "Drug Addiction in Russia: A Threat to the Nation," Russian Politics and Law 39, no. 5 (September/October 2001): 30-42;
97. John Kramer, "Drug Abuse in Russia: Emerging Pandemic or Overhyped Diversion?" Problems of Post-Communism 50, no. 6 (November/December 2003): 12-27.
98. "Russia's AIDS Rate Highest in the World," RosBusinessConsulting (September 19, 2003);
99. John Tedstrom, "Russia Must Tackle AIDS Without Delay," Financial Times (September 17, 2003);
100. U.S.-Russia Working Group Against HIV/AIDS, On the Frontline of an Epidemic: The Need for Urgency in Russia's Fight Against AIDS (New York: Transatlantic Partners Against Aids, 2003), p. 6.
101. Nicholas Eberstadt, "The Future of AIDS," Foreign Affairs 81, no. 6 (November/December 2002): 22-45.
102. Nicholas Eberstadt, "The Russian Federation at the Dawn of the Twenty-first Century: Trapped in a Demographic Straitjacket," NBR Analysis 15, no. 2 (2004);
103. Murray Feshbach, Russia's Health and Demographic Crisis: Policy Implications and Consequences (Washington, DC: Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute, 2003).
104. U.S.-Russia Working Group, On the Frontline of an Epidemic.
105. "HIV Spreading Fastest in Former Soviet States," Rosbalt (September 18, 2003).
106. Barry Buzan, People, States, and Fear: The National Security Problem in International Relations (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1983).
107. Svante E. Cornell and Regine A. Spector, "Central Asia: More Than Islamic Extremists," Washington Quarterly 25, no. 1 (winter 2002): 193-206.
108. S. Frederick Starr, "Central Asia in the Global Economy," Foreign Policy (September/October 2004): special advertising supplement.
109. Larry P. Goodson, Afghanistan's Endless War (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 2001);
110. Ralph H. Magnus and Eden Naby, Afghanistan: Mullah, Marx, and Mujahid (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1998).
111. For a development of this argument, see Svante E. Cornell, "The United States and Central Asia: In the Steppes to Stay?" Cambridge Review of International Affairs 17, no. 2 (summer 2004): 239-51.
112. Niklas L. P. Swanström, "The Prospects for Multilateral Conflict Prevention and Regional Cooperation in Central Asia," Central Asian Survey 23, no. 1 (March 2004): 41-53.
113. Ratings by the Freedom House Nations in Transit project for democratization and the rule of law record the development of regional states' performance. From 1999 to 2004, Kazakhstan moved from an average score of 5.5 to 6.25 on a scale from 1 to 7, with lower scores indicating high scores for democracy and the rule of law; Kyrgyzstan from 5.08 to 5.67; Tajikistan from 5.75 to 5.71; Turkmenistan from 6.75 to 6.88; Uzbekistan from 6.38 to 6.46.
114. Stephen Blank, "Democratic Prospects in Central Asia," World Affairs 166, no. 3 (winter 2004): 133-42.
115. Martha Brill Olcott, "Taking Stock of Central Asia," Journal of International Affairs 56, no. 2 (spring 2003): 3-17;
116. Fiona Hill, "Central Asia and the Caucasus: The Impact of the War on Terrorism," in Nations in Transit 2003: Democratization in East-Central Europe and Eurasia, ed. Amanda Schnetzer et al. (New York: Freedom House, 2003);
117. Anara Tabyshalieva, "Human Rights and Democratization in Central Asia After September 11," Nordic Institute of Asian Studies Insights (December 2002).
118. Kathleen Collins, "The Logic of Clan Politics: Evidence from the Central Asian Trajectories," World Politics 56, no. 2 (January 2004): 224-61.
119. Starr, "Central Asia in the Global Economy."
120. Philip Micklin, Managing Water in Central Asia (London: Royal Institute for International Affairs, 2000).
121. This paradigm is clearly reflected in the titles of some of the early books on the region: Ahmed Rashid, The Resurgence of Central Asia: Islam or Nationalism? (Atlantic Highlands, NJ: Zed, 1994);
122. Dilip Hiro, Between Marx and Muhammad: The Changing Face of Central Asia (London: Harper Collins, 1995).
123. Sunni Islam recognizes four maddhabs, or schools of jurisprudence: the Hanafi, Shafi'i, Maliki, and Hanbali. The Hanafi tradition is the most moderate and tolerant of interpretation, whereas the Hanbali school is severely opposed to "folk Islam," Sufism, and the incorporation of non-Islamic customs and traditions. Deobandism, while nominally Hanafi, was founded in the late nineteenth century in British India, with strong influences from the rigorous Wahhabi strain in Saudi Arabia. On Deobandism, see Barbara D. Metcalf, Islamic Revival in British India: Deoband, 1860-1900 (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1982).
124. For a thorough overview of the development of radical Islam in Central Asia, see Vitaly Naumkin, "Militant Islam in Central Asia: The Case of The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan," Working Paper Series (Berkeley Program in Soviet and Post-Soviet Studies, spring 2003): 18-24; Ahmed
125. Rashid, Jihad: The Rise of Militant Islam in Central Asia (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2002).
126. Naumkin, "Militant Islam in Central Asia," pp. 20-21.
127. Alfred Appei and Peter Skorsch, "Report of the EC Rapid Reaction Mechanism Assessment Mission: Central Asia, Border Management" (Brussels: European Commission, June 2002), pp. 24-27.
128. Maral Madi, "Drug Trade in Kyrgyzstan: Structure, Implications, and Countermeasures," Central Asian Survey 23, no. 3/4 (December 2004): 10.
129. Naumkin, "Militant Islam in Central Asia," p. 40;
130. David Leheny, "Tokyo Confronts Terror," Policy Review, no. 110 (December 2001/January 2002): 37-47.
131. Ahmed Rashid, "They're Only Sleeping-Why Militant Islamicists in Central Asia Aren't Going to Go Away," New Yorker (January 14, 2002).
132. Rashid, Jihad, pp. 176-78.
133. International Crisis Group, "Radical Islam in Central Asia: Responding to Hizb-ut-Tahrir" (Osh and Brussels: Asia Report no. 58, June 2003).
134. Alisher Khamidov, "Countering the Call: The U.S., Hizb-ut-Tahrir, and Religious Extremism in Central Asia," U.S. Policy Toward the Islamic World, Analysis Paper no. 4 (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2003).
135. German Federal Ministry of the Interior, "2002 Report of the Protection of the Constitution" (available in English at www.bmi.bund.de).
136. Ariel Cohen, "Hizb-ut-Tahrir: An Emerging Threat to U.S. Interest in Central Asia," Heritage Foundation Backgrounder, no. 1656 (May 2003).
137. While the UNODC figures are the most authoritative available, estimates by the U.S. government are somewhat higher, indicating a cultivated area of 206,700 hectares and a potential production of 4,950 tons of opium. Office of National Drug Control Policy, "Estimated Poppy Cultivation in Afghanistan," press release (November 19, 2004) (www.whitehousedrugpolicy.gov/news/press04/111904.html).
138. In 2002-2003, Kazakhstan had an estimated 180,000-250,000 drug users (1.39 percent of the population); Kyrgyzstan, 60,000-75,000 (1.32 percent); Tajikistan, 65,000-90,000 (1.25 percent); Uzbekistan, 45,000-55,000 (0.2 percent).Turkmenistan's figure is estimated at only 13,000 (0.27 percent) but is highly unreliable. See Uppsala Silk Road Studies Program, Drug Trade in Eurasia Database (www.silkroadstudies.org/database.htm). Most estimates are from the UNODC as well as government sources.
139. In 2000, drug-related crime in Tajikistan grew by 40 percent, and in 2001 by more than 70 percent. See Konstantin Parshin, "Anti-Drug Trafficking Efforts Could Help Fight Terrorism," Eurasia Insight (September 20, 2001).
140. On HIV, see Joana Godinha and Laura Shrestha, "HIV/AIDS in Central Asia," World Bank Briefing Note, March 12, 2002.
141. See Madi, "Drug Trade in Kyrgyzstan."
142. Kozhanov and Avdeeva, "Ekho Batkena" (Echoes of Batken), Vecherny Bishkek (September 7, 1999);
143. A. Otorbayeva, "Batkenskiy Dnevnik" (Batken Diary), Vecherny Bishkek (September 3, 1999).
144. See Mahmadamin Mahmadaminov, "The Development of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (Turkestan)" (Johns Hopkins University, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, 2003).
145. See, e.g., Michael Fredholm, Uzbekistan and the Threat from Islamic Extremism (Camberley: Conflict Studies Research Centre, Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, K39, March 2003), pp. 9-10.
146. Tamara Makarenko, "Traffickers Turn from Balkan Conduit to 'Northern' Route," Jane's Intelligence Review 13, no. 8 (August 2001): 27-29;
147. Madi, "Drug Trade in Kyrgyzstan," p. 7.
148. Associated Press (May 25, 2001).
149. Tamara Makarenko, "Crime and Terrorism in Central Asia," Jane's Intelligence Review 12, no. 7 (July 2000).
150. Mutschke, "Threat Posed by Organized Crime";
151. Donnie R. Marshall, Drug Enforcement Administration administrator, Testimony to the Subcommittee on Crime of the Judiciary Committee, U.S. House of Representatives, December 13, 2000 (http://usinfo.state.gov/topical/pol/terror/00121301.htm).
152. Bolot Januzakov, quoted in Glenn E. Curtis, "Involvement of Russian Organized Crime Syndicates, Criminal Elements in the Russian Military, and Regional Terrorist Groupings in Narcotics Trafficking in Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Chechnya" (Washington, DC: Library of Congress, Federal Research Division, October 2002), p. 14.
153. Makarenko, "Crime, Terror, and the Central Asian Drug Trade"
154. Personal communication, Frederick Starr; Todd Zeranski, "Al Qaeda Ally in Central Asia Poses Lingering Threat," Bloomberg News (March 12, 2002).
155. Personal communication, former official, Kyrgyzstan Drug Control Agency, June 2004.
156. UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2003 (Vienna: United Nations, October 2003).
157. Asal Azamova, "The Military Is in Control of Drug Trafficking in Tajikistan," Moscow News (May 30, 2001). This is the first official acknowledgment of the long-suspected involvement of Russian troops in Tajikistan in the drug trade.
158. See also "Civil Order Still a Distant Prospect in Tajikistan," Jamestown Monitor (July 18, 2001);
159. Jean-Christophe Peuch, "Central Asia: Charges Link Russian Military to Drug Trade," RFE/RL (June 8,2001).
160. "Heroin Found in Tajik Ambassador's Car in Kazakhstan," Interfax Kazakhstan (May 22, 2000).
161. "Drug Trade Engulfs Tajikistan, Spills into Russia," Jamestown Monitor (January 31, 2001).
162. "Tajik Leadership Implicated in Drug Smuggling," RFE/RL News-line (May 20, 1999).
163. In 1996-98, 77 percent of all heroin seized in Central Asia was apprehended in Turkmenistan. UNODC, "Illicit Drugs Situation in the Region Neighboring Afghanistan and the Response of ODCCP" (New York: United Nations, November 2002).
164. As communicated to the authors by the Criminal Intelligence Division of the Swedish police.
165. Institute for War and Peace Reporting, "Turkmen Addiction Rising," IWPR Reporting Central Asia, no. 64 (August 10, 2001). Also numerous personal communications from Western researchers in non-political fields visiting Turkmenistan.
166. Rustem Safronov, "Turmenistan's Niyazov Implicated in Drug Smuggling," Eurasianet (March 29, 2002);
167. Alec Appelbaum, "Turkmen Dissident Accuses Niyazov of Crimes," Eurasianet (April 26, 2002);
168. "Russia Turns Its Back on Turkmenbashi," Gazeta.ru (May 27, 2003).
169. International Crisis Group, Cracks in the Marble: Turmenistan's Failing Dictatorship (Brussels/Osh: ICG, January 2003), pp. 27-28.
170. Osmonaliev, Developing Counter-Narcotics Policy, p. 22;
171. Oibek Khamidov, "Narkokurera uveli za kordon" (Drug Courier Taken Abroad), Vecherny Bishkek (May 19, 2004).
172. Author interviews, Bishkek, July 2004.
173. For an early assessment of this, see Svante Cornell and Niklas Swanström, "Kyrgyzstan's Revolution: Poppies or Tulips?" Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst (May 18, 2005).
174. See also Erica Marat, "Impact of Drug Trade and Organized Crime on State Functioning in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan," China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly 4, no. 1 (2006): 93-111.
175. '"Drug Link' in Kyrgyz MP's Death," BBC News (November 29, 2005);
176. Erica Marat, "Erkinbayev's Assassination Provokes Controversy in Kyrgyzstan," Eurasia Daily Monitor (September 27, 2005).
177. Anara Tabyshalieva, "Political Violence on the Rise in Kyrgyzstan," Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst (January 25, 2006).
178. "Olympic Officials Denied Entry," BBC Sport Online (September 8, 2000);
179. "Uzbekistan Appeals over Entry Ban," BBC Sport Online (September 11, 2000).
180. Barnett Rubin, Road to Ruin: Afghanistan's Booming Opium Industry (Washington and New York: Center for American Progress and NYU Center for International Cooperation, October 2004), s. 4.
181. USAID Bureau for Global Health, "Country Profile HIV/AIDS: Central Asia," June 2003.
182. See also the Silk Road Studies Program's Database on Drugs and organized crime in Eurasia (www.silkroadstudies.org/drugtrade.htm).
183. Cornell, "United States and Central Asia."