Forecasting the presidential vote in the states, 1948-2004: An update, revision, and extension of a state-level presidential forecasting model

Journal of Political Marketing

Volumn 5, Issue 1-2, 2006, Pages 33-57

  Campbell, James E ^a   Ali, Syed ^a   Jalalzai, Farida ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY AT BUFFALO   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI ST LOUIS   (United States)

Author keywords

Election; Forecast; Prediction; Presidential; State; Vote

Indexed keywords

EID: 33746618039     PISSN: 15377857     EISSN: 15377865     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1300/J199V05n01_03     Document Type: Review

References (31)

1. Abramowitz, Alan I. 1988. "An Improved Model for Predicting Presidential Out-comes." PS: Political Science and Politics, 21:843-847.
2. _. 2000. "Bill and Al's Excellent Adventure: Forecasting the 1996 Presidential Election," in James E. Campbell and James C. Garand (eds.) Before the Vote: Forecasting National Elections. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, pp. 47-56.
3. Bullock, Charles S. III. 1988. "Regional Realignment from an Officeholding Perspective." The Journal of Politics, 50:553-574.
4. Bullock, Charles S. III, Ronald Keith Gaddie, and Donna R. Hoffman. 2002. "Regional Variations in the Realignment of American Politics, 1944-2000," paper presented at the Southwestern Political Science Association Meeting, New Orleans, LA, March 27-30, 2002.
5. Campbell, James E. 1992. "Forecasting the Presidential Vote in the States." American Journal of Political Science, 36:386-407.
6. _. 2000a. The American Campaign: US. Presidential Campaigns and the National Vote. College Station, TX: Texas A&M University Press.
7. _. 2000b. "Polls and Votes: The Trial-Heat Presidential Election Forecasting Model, Certainty, and Political Campaigns," in James E. Campbell and James C. Garand (eds.) Before the Vote: Forecasting National Elections. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, pp. 17-46.
8. _. 2000c. "The Science of Forecasting Presidential Elections," in James E. Campbell and James C. Garand (eds.) Before the Vote: Forecasting National Elections. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, pp. 169-187.
9. _. 2001a. "The Referendum that Didn't Happen: The Forecasts of the 2000 Presidential Election." PS: Political Science and Politics. 34, 1: 21-31.
10. _. 2001b. "An Evaluation of the Trial-Heat and Economy Forecast of the Presidential Vote in the 2000 Election." American Politics Research, 29:289-96.
11. _. 2003. "The 2002 Midterm Election: A Typical or an Atypical Midterm?" PS: Political Science & Politics, 36:203-7.
12. Campbell, James E. and Kenneth A. Wink. 1990. "Trial-Heat Forecasts of the Presidential Vote." American Politics Quarterly, 18:251-269.
13. Carmines, Edward G. and James A. Stimson, 1989. Issue Evolution: Race and the Transformation of American Politics. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
14. Fair, Ray C. 1988. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update." Political Behavior, 10:168-179.
15. _. 1996. "Econometrics and Presidential Elections." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10:89-102.
16. Garand, James C. 1988. "Localism and Regionalism in Presidential Elections: Is There a Home State or Regional Advantage." Western Political Quarterly, 41:85-104.
17. Gelman, Andrew and Gary King. 1993. "Why Are American Presidential Campaign Polls So Variable When Votes Are So Predictable?" British Journal of Political Science, 23:409-451.
18. Greene, Jay P. 1993. "Forewarned Before Forecast: Presidential Election Forecasting Models and the 1992 Election." PS: Political Science and Politics, 26:17-21.
19. Holbrook, Thomas M. 1991. "Presidential Elections in Space and Time." American Journal of Political Science, 35:91-109.
20. Holbrook, Thomas M. and Steven C. Poe. 1987. "Measuring State Political Ideology." American Politics Quarterly, 15:399-416.
21. Lewis-Beck, Michael. 1985. "Election Forecasts in 1984: How Accurate Were They?" PS: Political Science and Politics, 18:53-62.
22. Lewis-Beck, Michael S. and Tom Rice. 1983. "Localism in Presidential Elections: The Home State Advantage." American Journal of Political Science, 27:548-556.
23. _. 1984. "Forecasting Presidential Elections: A Comparison of Naive Models." Political Behavior, 6:9-21.
24. _. 1992. Forecasting Elections. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press.
25. Lewis-Beck, Michael S. and Charles Tien. 2001. "Modeling the Future: Lessons from the Gore Forecast." PS: Political Science and Politics. 34, 1:21-31.
26. Moore, John L., Jon P. Preimesberger, and David R. Tarr. 2001. Congressional Quarterly's Guide to U.S. Elections, 4th edition. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press.
27. Nadeau, Richard and Michael S. Lewis-Beck. 2001. "National Economic Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," The Journal of Politics, 63:159-181.
28. Norpoth, Helmut. 2000. "Of Time and Candidates: A Forecast for 1996." In James E. Campbell and James C. Garand (eds.) Before the Vote: Forecasting National Elections. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, pp. 57-81.
29. Petrocik, John R. 1987. "Realignment: New Party Coalitions and the Nationalization of the South," The Journal of Politics, 49:347-375.
30. Rosenstone, Steven J. 1983. Forecasting Presidential Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
31. Stanley, Harold W. 1988. "Southern Partisan Changes: Dealignment, Realignment or Both?" The Journal of Politics, 50:64-88.