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Volumn 13, Issue 4, 2006, Pages 632-651

The decline of citizen participation in electoral politics in post-authoritarian Chile

(1)  Carlin, Ryan E a  

a NONE

Author keywords

Chile; Electoral behaviour; Political culture; Quality of democracy; Voting laws

Indexed keywords

AUTHORITARIANISM; DEMOCRACY; DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION; ELECTORAL GEOGRAPHY; POLITICAL PARTICIPATION; VOTING BEHAVIOR;

EID: 33746288378     PISSN: 13510347     EISSN: 1743890X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/13510340600791921     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (54)

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    • (see and Juan Pablo Luna, Programmatic and Non-Programmatic Party-Voter Linkages in Two Institutionalized Party Systems: Chile and Uruguay in Comparative Perspective. Ph.D. dissertation, Department of Political Science, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2005), these issues are at least as relevant to the study how elections affect democratic quality in Chile, if not more so
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    • note
    • Seventeen remote communities were not sampled, including Easter Island, Juan Fernández Island, and in Antarctica. Intended sample size was 2,200 cases, of which 2,148 (97.6 per cent) were successfully collected between May and July of 1999. Although the survey was undertaken five to seven months prior to the 1999 election, intended electoral behaviour in the dataset matches the actual electoral behaviour the election fairly well. The sample under-predicts abstention and non-registration in the population, probably due in part to the combination of temporal distance (Chileans can register to vote until 120 days away from the election) and the inclusion of the 'undecided' response choice. Given andatory voting laws, intentional, not circumstantial, non-compliant 'abstention' may suffer from social desirability effects when surveyed.
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    • While some might advocate using post-electoral CEP data, such as Estudio Nacional de Opinión Pública Número 35 Diciembre1997-Enero 1998, Tema Especial: Situación post elecciones parlamentarias and/or Estudio Nacional de Opinión Pública Número 42, Tema Especial: Elecciones Parlamentarias 2001, y ciudadanía, unfortunately these surveys do not have the appropriate indicators of political support.
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    • It should be noted that the reported model does not pass Small-Hsiao tests of the IIA assumption.
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    • that for most voting studies the IIA property is 'rarely relevant' (p.120) and is 'most appropriate in candidate-centred elections - especially those where candidates enjoy ease of entry and exit and are seen as close substitutes and one seeks to estimate the consequences of hypothetical changes in choice sets' (p.113). Furthermore, they favour multinomial logit over multinomial probit, an estimation procedure that relaxes the IIA assumption, because the probit model can have estimation problems and tends to be weakly identified, a property that can hinder our ability to make sound inferences. Therefore, I choose to estimate the model with multinomial logit rather than multinomial probit
    • J. Dow and J. Endersby argue in 'Multinomial Probit and Multinomial Logit: A Comparison of Choice Models for Voting Research', Electoral Studies, Vol. 23, No. 1 (2004), pp.107-22, that for most voting studies the IIA property is 'rarely relevant' (p.120) and is 'most appropriate in candidate-centred elections - especially those where candidates enjoy ease of entry and exit and are seen as close substitutes and one seeks to estimate the consequences of hypothetical changes in choice sets' (p.113). Furthermore, they favour multinomial logit over multinomial probit, an estimation procedure that relaxes the IIA assumption, because the probit model can have estimation problems and tends to be weakly identified, a property that can hinder our ability to make sound inferences. Therefore, I choose to estimate the model with multinomial logit rather than multinomial probit.
    • (2004) Electoral Studies , vol.23 , Issue.1 , pp. 107-122
    • Dow, J.1    Endersby, J.2
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    • (1999) Critical Citizens: Global Support for Democratic Government , pp. 1-27
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    • Pippa Norris (ed.) (Oxford: Oxford University Press)
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    • (1999) Critical Citizens: Global Support for Democratic Government , pp. 31-56
    • Hans-Dieter, K.1
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    • note
    • Principal components analysis reveals that these two variables comprise a single dimension: 64 percent of the total variance is explained by this component.
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    • note
    • Principal components analysis suggests these measures form a single factor which accounts for 67 percent of the total variance. The scale exhibits high inter-item reliability (α 0.75). The models were run with this additive index and an index weighted by the factor scores. Since the estimates were virtually equal, for simplicity's sake I report the estimates of the additive index.
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    • note
    • Coded 1 if the respondent answers 'yes' and 0 if the respondent answers 'no'.
  • 104
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    • Óscar Muñoz and Carolina Stefoni (eds) (Santiago: FLACSO-Chile and Editorial Universitaria Lehmann)
    • Alfredo Joignant R., 'La democracia da la indiferencia. Despolitización, desencanto y malestar en el gobierno de Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle', in Óscar Muñoz and Carolina Stefoni (eds), El Período del Presidente Frei Ruiz-Tagle (Santiago: FLACSO-Chile and Editorial Universitaria, 2003), pp.83-106; Lehmann (note 14).
    • (2003) El Período Del Presidente Frei Ruiz-Tagle , pp. 83-106
    • Joignant, A.R.1
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    • Gerardo L. Munck, 'Democratic Stability and Its Limits: An Analysis of Chile's 1993 Elections', Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs, Vol. 36, No. 2 (1994), pp.1-38.
    • (1994) Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs , vol.36 , Issue.2 , pp. 1-38
    • Munck, G.L.1
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    • 'Malestar y Desencanto en Chile: Legados del autoritarismo y costos de la transición'
    • Número 63 (Santiago: Corporación Tiempo 1998) Papeles de Trabajo
    • Huneeus (note 19); Tironi (note 29).
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    • Huneeus, C.1
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    • 'Informe: Radiografía del Electorado Chileno, Encuesta CSES-MORI'
    • Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) and Consultora MORI Chile (Santiago: CSES-MORI)
    • Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) and Consultora MORI Chile, 'Informe: Radiografía del Electorado Chileno, Encuesta CSES-MORI' (Santiago: CSES-MORI, 2004).
    • (2004)
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    • Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) and Consultora MORI Chile (Santiago: CSES-MORI)
    • Ibid., p.7.
    • (2004) , pp. 7
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    • Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) and Consultora MORI Chile (Santiago: CSES-MORI)
    • Ibid.
    • (2004) , pp. 7
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    • 'Neoinstitutional Accounts of Voter Turnout: Moving Beyond Industrial Democracies'
    • Aníbal Pérez-Liñán, 'Neoinstitutional Accounts of Voter Turnout: Moving Beyond Industrial Democracies', Electoral Studies, Vol. 20, No. 2 (2001), pp.281-97
    • (2001) Electoral Studies , vol.20 , Issue.2 , pp. 281-297
    • Pérez-Liñán, A.1
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    • 'Trouble in Paradise?'
    • Mitchell A. Seligson, 'Trouble in Paradise?', Latin America Research Review, Vol. 37, No. 1 (2002), pp.160-86
    • (2002) Latin America Research Review , vol.37 , Issue.1 , pp. 160-186
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    • Ábstention in Argentine Presidential Elections, 1983-1999'
    • Darío Canton and Jorge Raúl Jorrat, Ábstention in Argentine Presidential Elections, 1983-1999', Latin America Research Review, Vol. 38, No. 1 (2003), pp.187-201
    • (2003) Latin America Research Review , vol.38 , Issue.1 , pp. 187-201
    • Canton, D.1    Jorrat, R.J.2
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    • 'Subnational Electoral Choice: Economic and Referendum Voting in Argentina, 1983-1999'
    • Karen L. Remmer and François Gélineau, 'Subnational Electoral Choice: Economic and Referendum Voting in Argentina, 1983-1999', Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 36, No. 7 (2003), pp.801-21
    • (2003) Comparative Political Studies , vol.36 , Issue.7 , pp. 801-821
    • Remmer, K.L.1    Gélineau, F.2
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    • 'Radical Change at the Ballot Box: Causes and Consequences of Electoral Behavior in Venezuelás 2000 Elections'
    • José E. Molina V. and Carmen Pérez B., 'Radical Change at the Ballot Box: Causes and Consequences of Electoral Behavior in Venezuelás 2000 Elections', Latin American Politics and Society, Vol. 46, No. 1 (2004), pp.103-34
    • (2004) Latin American Politics and Society , vol.46 , Issue.1 , pp. 103-134
    • José, E.1    Molina, V.2    Pérez, C.B.3
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    • Carolina A. Fornos, Timothy J. Power and James C. Grand, 'Explaining Voter Turnout in Latin America, 1980 to 2000', Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 37, No. 8 (2004), pp.909-4
    • (2004) Comparative Political Studies , vol.37 , Issue.8 , pp. 909-1004
    • Fornos, C.A.1    Power, T.J.2    Grand, J.C.3
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    • 'Los huérfanos de la política de partidos. Sobre los alcances y la naturaleza de la crisis de representación partidaria'
    • Juan Carlos Torre, 'Los huérfanos de la política de partidos. Sobre los alcances y la naturaleza de la crisis de representación partidaria', Desarrollo Económico, Vol. 42, No. 168 (2003), pp.647-66.
    • (2003) Desarrollo Económico , vol.42 , Issue.168 , pp. 647-666
    • Torre, J.C.1
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    • The fact that more than 25 percent of the potential electorate is not registered to vote creates major uncertainties among parties about what potential reforms will mean for their electoral viability. Thus President Ricardo Lagos's proposal, delivered in his yearly 21 May presidential address in 2004, to make voter registration automatic at age 18 and to amend the constitution in order to make voting voluntary, generated heated debate within and among the parties of the Concertación and Alianza. This included strong dissent from key coalition members, the Christian Democrats led by Adolfo Zaldivar. Within that party the Christian Democrat Youth were so outraged by Zaldivar's position that they called a dialogue with party leaders and representatives to express their support for automatic registration. Meanwhile the president of the Socialist Party, Carlos Ominami, called for automatic registration and obligatory voting while other sectors of the party supported Lagos. The opposition was also divided on the issue, with Renovación Nacional siding with Lagos and Unión Demócrata Independiente against him. Just over a month after declaring his intentions, Lagos decided only to include automatic registration in his initiative and to shelve the constitutional reform project that would make voting voluntary. In the end, even this reduced automatic registration initiative foundered. A more academic exposition of the pros and cons of these proposals can be found in the chapters of Claudio Fuentes and Andre's Villar (eds), Voto ciudadano: Debate sobre la inscripción electoral (Santiago: FLACSO-Chile, 2005).
    • (2005) Voto Ciudadano: Debate Sobre La Inscripción Electoral
    • Fuentes, C.1    Villar, A.2


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