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note
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-1 is obtained.
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81
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33745454851
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note
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If all of the initial uncertainties (as originally reported or as reevaluated during the critical data analysis step that occurs prior to inserting the determination into the TN) were indeed 95% uncertainty intervals, then the ATcT statistical analysis would generally find that ∼95% of the uncertainties are large enough to completely contain the difference between the measured quantity and the same quantity as recalculated from the final ATcT enthalpies (i.e., the "error" of the original determination), while ∼5% of the uncertainties would not be sufficiently large to contain this difference. The ∼5% set of uncertainties would be composed roughly as follows: ∼3% of uncertainties would be able to contain the "terror" if they were augmented by 20% or less, ∼1.6% would need to be augmented by 20-50%, ∼0.4% would need to be augmented between 50 and 100%, and about 0.02% would need to be augmented by a factor between 2 and 4. Corrections larger than a factor of 4 would be exceedingly rare. Such ideal behavior almost never takes place in practice, attesting to the fact that a significant fraction of uncertainties reported in the literature are "optimistic". In fact, from the number of "optimistic" uncertainties uncovered and corrected within the global ATcT analysis of the ∼6400 determinations present in the current version of C(A)TN, one obtains a hint that the average initial uncertainty (many of which have been already expanded during the critical evaluation step above the originally reported size by a significant factor) roughly corresponds only to an ∼86% confidence interval (approximately equivalent to 1.5 std dev, as opposed to the desired coverage factor of ∼2 std dev). Constructing the network using the unconnected uncertainties (as claimed in the original literature) would have resulted in a substantially higher percentage of "optimistic" uncertainties. The picture is even murkier once the underlying distribution is examined in more detail: A substantial fraction of the "optimistic" uncertainties correspond to high-magnitude outliers, far beyond the statistical expectation. Some of these probably correspond to hidden systematic errors. The unusual ability of the TN approach of ATcT to uncover at least some of these systematic errors will be discussed in future publications on ATcT.
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