Projections of future surface winds, sea levels, and wind waves in the late 21st century and their application for impact studies of flood prone areas in the Baltic Sea Region

Special Paper of the Geological Survey of Finland

Volumn , Issue 41, 2006, Pages 23-43

  Meier, H E Markus ^a   Broman, Barry ^a   Kallio, Hilkka ^b   Kjellström, Erik ^a  

^a SWEDISH METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL INSTITUTE   (Sweden)

^b GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF FINLAND   (Finland)

Author keywords

Baltic Sea; Climate change; Floods; Sea level changes; Transgression; Waves; Winds

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; REGIONAL CLIMATE; SEA LEVEL CHANGE; SURFACE WIND; WIND WAVE;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; BALTIC SEA;

EID: 33744807170     PISSN: 07828535     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book Series    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Alexandersson, H. 2004. Variationer och trender i temperaturen. Variationer och trender i nederbörden (1860-2003). Faktablad nr. 22, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden, 2 p.
2. Anonymous 1998. Guide to Wave Analysis and Forcasting. World Meteorological Organization, WMO-No.702 (second edition), Geneva, Switzerland, 159 p.
3. Carlsson, M. 1997. Sea level and salinity variations in the Baltic Sea. Earth Sciences Centre, Göteborg University Publ. A14 1997. Doctoral theses.
4. Church, J.A., Gregory, J.M., Huybrechts, P., Kuhn, M., Lambeck, K., Nhuan, M.T., Qin, D. & Woodworth, P. 2001. Changes in Sea Level. In: Houghton J.T. et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 639-693.
5. Döscher, R. & Meier, H.E.M. 2004. Simulated sea surface temperature and heat fluxes in different climates of the Baltic Sea. Ambio 33, 242-248.
6. Döscher, R., Willén, U., Jones, C., Rutgersson, A., Meier, H. E. M., Hansson, U. & Graham, L.P. 2002. The development of the coupled regional ocean-atmosphere model RCAO. Boreal Environmental Research 7, 183-192.
7. Ekman, M. 1995. What is geoid? In Proceedings, Coordinate Systems, GPS, and the Geoid. June 27-29, 1994, Espoo, Finland. (Ed. M. Vermeer) Reports of the Finnish Geodetic Institute, 95:4, 53-62.
8. Ekman, M. 1996. A consistent map of the postglacial uplift of Fennoscandia. Terra Nova, 8, 158-165.
9. Ekman, M., & Mäkinen, J. 1995. Mean Sea Surface Topography in a Unified Height System for the Baltic Sea Area. In Proceedings, Coordinate Systems, GPS, and the Geoid. June 27-29, 1994, Espoo, Finland. (Ed. M. Vermeer) Reports of the Finnish geodetic Institute, 95:4, 53-62.
10. Eriksson, P.-O., Lilje, M., Olsson, P.-A., Svensson, R., 2002. Validation and Preparation of Data for the Computation of a New Height System in Sweden. In Proceedings of the 14th NKG General Meeting of the Nordic Geodetic Commission. October 1-5 2002, Espoo, Finland, (Ed. M. Poutanen & H. Suurmäki), 160-165.
11. Gibson, J.K., Kållberg, P., Uppala, S., Hernandez, A., Nomura, A. & Serrano, E. 1997. ERA description. ECMWF Re-analysis Project Rep. Series 1, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom, 66 p.
12. Gordon, C., Cooper, C., Senior, C.A., Banks, H., Gregory, J.M., Johns, T.C., Mitchell, J.F.B. & Wood, R.A. 2000. The simulation of SST, sea ice extent and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Climate Dynamics 16, 147-166.
13. Graham, L.P. 2004. Climate change effects on river flow to the Baltic Sea. Ambio 33, 235-241.
14. Graham, L.P., Andréasson, J. & Persson, G. 2006. Impacts of future climate change and sea level rise in the Stockholm Region: part I - The effect on water levels in Lake Mälaren. In: Schmidt-Thorne, P. (ed.): Sea level Changes Affecting the Spatial Development of the Baltic Sea Region. Geological Survey of Finland, Special Paper 41, 131-141.
15. Johansson, M., Kahma, K.K., Boman, H. & Launiainen, J. 2004. Scenarios for sea level on the Finnish coast. Boreal Environmental Research 9, 153-166.
16. Jones, R., Hassell, D. & Murphy, J. 1999. Configuring new climate models for Europe with improved climatologies via better representation of physical processes. UKMO second year report for MERCURE, EC contract ENV4-CT97-0485.
17. Jones, C.G., Ullerstig, A., Willén, U. & Hansson, U. 2004. The Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA). Part I: Model climatology and performance characteristics for present climate over Europe. Ambio 33, 199-210.
18. Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Chelliah, M., Zhu, Y., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo, K.C., Ropelweski, C., Wand, J., Leetma, A., Reynolds, R., Jenne, R. & Joseph, D. 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40 reanalysis project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 77, 437-471.
19. Kistler, R., Kalnay, E., Collins, W., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Kanamitsu, M., Kousky, V., van den Dool, H., Jenne, R. & Fiorino, M. 2001. The NCEP-NCAR 50 year reanalysis: Monthly mean CD-ROM and documentation. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82, 247-267.
20. Kjellström, E. 2004. Recent and future signatures of climate change in Europe. Ambio 33, 193-198.
21. Klein, J. & Staudt, M. 2006. Evaluation of future sea level rise impacts in Pärnu/Estonia. In: Schmidt-Thorne, P. (ed.): Sea level Changes Affecting the Spatial Development of the Baltic Sea Region. Geological Survey of Finland, Special Paper 41, 71-78.
22. Lehtonen, S. & Luoma, S. 2006. Incorporating sea level rise and flood scenarios in Helsinki City planning. In: Schmidt-Thome, P. (ed.): Sea level Changes Affecting the Spatial Development of the Baltic Sea Region. Geological Survey of Finland, Special Paper 41, 83-94.
23. Meier, H.E.M., Döscher, R. & Faxén, T. 2003. A multiprocessor coupled ice-ocean model for the Baltic Sea: Application to the salt inflow. Journal of Geophysical Research 108(C8), 3273, doi:10.1029/2000JC000521.
24. Meier, H.E.M., Döscher, R. & Halkka, A. 2004a. Simulated distributions of Baltic sea-ice in warming climate and consequences for the winter habitat of the Baltic ringed seal. Ambio 33, 249-256.
25. Meier, H.E.M., Broman, B. & Kjellström, E. 2004b. Simulated sea level in past and future climates of the Baltic Sea. Climate Research 27, 59-75.
26. Nakićenović, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., de Vries, B., Fenhann, J., Gaffin, S., Gregory, K., Grübler, A., and 24 others 2000. Emission scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, 599 p.
27. New, M., Hulme, M. & Jones, P. 1999. Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part I: Development of a 1961-90 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. Journal of Climate 12, 829-856.
28. New, M., Hulme, M. & Jones, P. 2000. Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part II: Development of 1901-96 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate. Journal of Climate 13, 2217-2238.
29. Pope, V.D., Gallani, M.L., Rowntree, P.R. & Stratton, R.A. 2000. The impact of new physical parameterizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: HadAM3. Climate Dynamics 16(2-3), 123-146.
30. Poutanen, M. 1999. Use of GPS in unification of vertical datums and detection of levelling network errors. In: Proceedings, Geodesy and surveying in the future. The importance of heights. March 15-17 1999, Gävle, Sweden. (Ed. M. Lilje) LMV Rapport 1999:3, 301-312.
31. Pryor, S.P. & Barthelmie, R.J. 2004. Use of RCM simulations to assess the impact of climate change on wind energy availability. Risø-R- 1477(EN). Risø National Laboratory, Roskilde, Danmark. ISBN 87-550-3368-7, 111 p.
32. Pryor, S.P., Barthelmie, R.J. & Kjellström, E. 2005. Analyses of the potential climate change impact on wind energy resources in northern Europe using output from a Regional Climate Model. Climate Dynamics, 25, 815-835
33. Räisänen, J., Hansson, U., Ullerstig, A., Döcher, R., Graham, L.P., Jones, C., Meier, M., Samuelsson, P. & Willén, U. 2003. GCM driven simulations of recent and future climate with the Rossby Centre coupled atmosphere - Baltic Sea regional climate model RCAO, RMK No. 101, SMHI, SE 60176 Norrköping, Sweden, 61 p.
34. Räisänen, J., Hansson, U., Ullerstig, A., Döscher, R., Graham, L.P., Jones, C., Meier, H.E.M., Samuelsson, P. & Willén, U. 2004. European climate in the late 21st century: regional simulation with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios. Climate Dynamics 22, 13-31.
35. Röber, B., Rudolphi, H., Lampe, R. & Zölitz-Möller, R. 2006. Usedom - Coastal Development and Implementation of Geo Information in a Decision Support Frame. In: Schmidt-Thome, P. (ed.): Sea level Changes Affecting the Spatial Development of the Baltic Sea Region, Geological Survey of Finland, Special Paper 41, 107-119.
36. Rockel, B. 2004. Near surface wind speed. Presentation held at the WCRP-sponsored Regional-Scale Climate Modelling Workshop. High-resolution climate modelling: Assessment, added value and applications Lund, Sweden, 29 March - 2 April, 2004 (see http://www.necc. nu/RCMworkshop/Presentations/0_38.pdf).
37. Roeckner, E., Bengtsson, L., Feichter, J., Lelieveld, J. & Rodhe, H. 1999. Transient climate change simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM including the tropospheric sulfur cycle. Journal of Climate 12, 3004-3032.
38. Seifert, T. & Kayser, B. 1995. A high resolution spherical grid topography of the Baltic Sea. Meereswiss. Ber. 9, Warnemünde, 73-88 (see http://www.io-warnemuende.de/iowtopo).
39. Seifert, T., Tauber, F. & Kayser, B. 2001. A high resolution spherical grid topography of the Baltic Sea - 2nd edition. Baltic Sea Science Congress, Stockholm, 25-29 November 2001, Poster No. 147, http://www.io-warnemuende.de/iowtopo.
40. Staudt, M., Kordalski, Z. & Zmuda, J. 2006. Assessment of modelled sea level rise impacts in the Gdańsk region, Poland. In: Schmidt-Thome, P. (ed.): Sea level Changes Affecting the Spatial Development of the Baltic Sea Region. Geological Survey of Finland, Special Paper 41, 121-130.
41. Vermeer, M. 2002. Tunnetko korkeusjärjestelmät? Positio, paikkatiedon erikoislehti, 2/2002, 14-16.
42. Viehhauser, M., Larsson, K. & Stålnacke, J. 2006. Impacts of future climate change and sea level rise in the Stockholm Region: Part II - GIS analysis of future flooding risks at regional and municipal scales. In: Schmidt-Thome, P. (ed.): Sea level Changes Affecting the Spatial Development of the Baltic Sea Region. Geological Survey of Finland, Special Paper 41, 143-154.
43. Virkki, H., Kallio, H. & Orenius, O. 2006. Sea Level Rise and Flood Risk Assessment in Itä-Uusimaa. In: Schmidt-Thome, P. (ed.): Sea level Changes Affecting the Spatial Development of the Baltic Sea Region. Geological Survey of Finland, Special Paper 41, 95-106.