Geographic opportunity and neomalthusian willingness: Boundaries, shared rivers, and conflict

International Interactions

Volumn 32, Issue 1, 2006, Pages 79-108

  Furlong, Kathryn ^a   Gleditsch, Nils Petter ^b,c,d,e   Hegre, Håvard ^b,d,e  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA   (Canada)

^b PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE OSLO PRIO   (Norway)

^c NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (Norway)

^d UNIVERSITY OF OSLO   (Norway)

^e PRIO's Centre

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 33744796905     PISSN: 03050629     EISSN: 15477444     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/03050620600596421     Document Type: Article

References (115)

1. Alam, Undala Z. (2002). "Questioning the Water Wars Rationale: A Case Study of the Indus Water Treaty." Geographical Journal, Vol. 168, No. 4, pp. 341-353.
2. Beaumont, Peter (1997). "Water and Armed Conflict in the Middle East-Fantasy or Reality?", in Nils Fetter Gleditsch, ed., Conflict and the Environment, Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic, pp. 355-374.
3. Bigger, Gideon, ed. (1995). The Encyclopedia of International Boundaries, Jerusalem: Jeaisalem Publishing House.
4. Biliouri, Daphne (1997). Environmental Issues as Potential Threats to Security. Paper presented at the 38th Annual Convention of the Studies Association, Toronto, March. 18-21.
5. Boulding, Kenneth (1962). Conflict and Defense, New York City, NY: Harper and Row.
6. Brecher, Michael and Jonathan Wilkenfeld (1997). A Study of Crisis, Ann Arbor, MI University of Michigan Press, data available at www.cidom.umd.edu/icb/
7. Bremer, Stuart A. (1992). "Dangerous Dyads: Conditions Affecting the Likelihood of Interstate War, 1816-1965." Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 36, No. 2, pp. 309-341.
8. Buhaug, Halvard & Nils Fetter Gleditsch (2006). "The Death of Distance? The Globalization of Armed Conflict," ch. 8 in Miles Kahler and Barbara Walter, eds. Territoriality and Conflict in an Era of Globalization. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press (187-216), in press.
9. CIA (1996, 2000). World Factbook. Washington, DC: Brassey's, for Central Intelligence Agency, http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html.
10. Collier, Paul and Anke Hoeffler (2004). "Greed and Grievance in Civil War." Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 56, No. 4, pp. 563-595.
11. COW Interstate System 1816-1997. Version 1997.1. Available on the COW 2 Website at http://cow2.la.psu.edu/. Downloaded fall 2001.
12. CRNET, 1978. "Register of International Rivers." Oxford: Pergamon: Centre of Natural Resources, Energy, and Transport of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations.
13. de Soysa, Indra (2002a). "Paradise Is a Bazaar? Greed, Creed, and Governance in Civil War, 1989-99." Journal of 'Peace Research, Vol. 39, No. 4, pp. 395-416.
14. de Soysa, Indra (2002b). "Ecoviolence: Shrinking Pie or Honey Pot?" Global Environmental Politics, Vol. 2, No. 4, pp. 1-27.
15. de Villiers, Marq (1999). Water Wars: Is the World's Water Running Out?, London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson.
16. Diehl, Paul (1985). "Contiguity and Military Escalation in Major Power Rivalries, 1816-1980."Journal of Politics, Vol. 47, No. 4, pp. 1203-1211.
17. Dobkowski, Michael N. and Isidor Walliman, eds. (1998). The Coming Age of Scarcity, New York: Syracuse University Press.
18. Dupont, Alan (1998). "The Environment and Security in Pacific Asia," Adelphi Paper No. 319, Oxford: Oxford University Press, for International Institute for Strategic Studies.
19. Falkenmark, Malin (1990). "Global Water Issues Facing Humanity." Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 27, No. 2, pp. 177-190.
20. Falkenmark, Malin and Jan Lundqvist (1998). "Towards Water Security; Political Determination and Human Adaptation Crucial." Natural Resources Forum, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp. 37-51.
21. FAO (1978). Systematic Index of International Water Treaties, Declarations, Acts and Cases, by Basin 1. Legislative Study 15. Rome: Food and Agricultural Organization.
22. FAO (1984). Systematic Index of International Water Treaties, Declarations, Acts and Cases, by Basin 2. Legislative Study 34. Rome: Food and Agricultural Organization.
23. Furlong, Kathryn and Nils Petter Gleditsch (2003). "The Boundary dataset." Conflict Management and Peace Science, Vol. 20, No. 1, pp. 93-117. [The dataset can be downloaded from www.prio.no/cscw/datasets.asp.]
24. Gartzke, Erik (1998). "Kant We All Just Get Along? Opportunity, Willingness, and the Origins of the Democratic Peace." American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 42, No. 1, pp. 1-27.
25. Gissinger, Ranveig and Nils Fetter Gleditsch (1999). "Globalization and Conflict: Welfare, Distribution, and Political Unrest." Journal of World-Systems Research, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 327-365.
26. Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede and Kyle Beardsley (2004). "Nosy Neighbors: Third-Party Actors in Central American Conflicts." Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 46, No. 2, pp. 379-402.
27. Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede and Michael D. Ward (1999). "A Revised List of Independent States since the Congress of Vienna." International Interactions, Vol, 25, No. 4, pp. 393-413.
28. Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede and Michael D. Ward (2001). "Measuring Space: A Minimum-Distance Database and Applications to International Studies." Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 38, No. 6, pp. 739-758.
29. Gleditsch, Nils Fetter (1995). "Geography, Democracy, and Peace." International Interactions, Vol. 20, No. 4, pp. 297-323.
30. Gleditsch, Nils Fetter (1998). "Armed Conflict and the Environment: A Critique of the Literature." Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 35, No. 4, pp. 363-380. Revised version as Ch. 12 in Diehl and Gleditsch, eds., 2001, pp. 251-272.
31. Gleditsch, Nils Petter (1999). "Do Open Windows Encourage Conflict?" Statsveten-skaplig tidskrift, Vol. 102, No. 3, pp. 333-349.
32. nd Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Chicago, IL, February 21-24 and The Fourth European International Relations Conference, University of Kent, Canterbury, September 8-10.
33. Gleditsch, Nils Fetter and Hàvard Hegre (1997). "Peace and Democracy: Three Levels of Analyses." Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 41, No. 2, pp. 283-310.
34. Gleditsch, Nils Fetter, Kathryn Furlong, Håvard Hegre, Bethany Lacina & Taylor Owen (2006)."Conflicts over Shared Rivers. Resource Scarcity of Fuzzy Boundaries?" Political Geography 25, in press.
35. Gleditsch, Nils Fetter and J. David Singer (1975). "Distance and International War, 1816-1965." in Proceedings of the IPRA Fifth Conference. IPRA Studies in Peace Research. Oslo: International Peace Research Association, pp. 481-506.
36. Gleick, Peter H. (1993a). "Water and Conflict: Fresh Water Resources and International Security." International Security, Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 79-112.
37. Gleick, Peter H., ed. (1993b). Water in Crisis: A Guide to the World's Fresh Water Resources, New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, for Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security and Stockholm Environment Institute.
38. Gleick, Peter H. (1998). "The World's Water 1998-1999: The Biennial Report on Freshwater Resources, Washington, DC: Island Press.
39. Gleick, Peter H. (2000). The World's Water 2000-2001: The Biennial Report on Freshwater Resources, Washington, DC: Island Press.
40. Gochman, Charles S. (1991). "Interstate Metrics: Conceptualizing, Operationalizing, and Measuring the Geographic Proximity of States since the Congress of Vienna." International Interactions, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 93-112.
41. Gochman, Charles and Zeev Maoz (1984). "Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816-1976: Procedures, Patterns, and Insights." Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 28, No. 4, pp. 585-616.
42. Goertz, Gary and Paul F. Diehl (1992). Territorial Changes and International Conflict, London: Routledge.
43. Goertz, Gary and Paul F. Diehl (1993). "Enduring Rivalries: Theoretical Constructs and Empirical Patterns." International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 37, No. 2, pp. 147-171.
44. Hauge, Wenche and Tanja Ellingsen (1998). "Beyond Environmental Scarcity: Causal Pathways to Conflict." Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 35, No. 3, pp. 299-317.
45. Hegre, Håvard (2000). "Development and the Liberal Peace: What Does it Take to be a Trading State?" Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 37, No. 1, pp. 5-30.
46. Hegre, Håvard, Tanja Ellingsen, Scott Gates, and Nils Fetter Gleditsch (2001). "Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816-1992." American Political Science Review, Vol. 95, No. 1, pp. 33-48.
47. Hensel, Paul R. and Sara McLaughlin Mitchell (2001). "Bones of Contention: Measuring Contentious Issues in World Politics." Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association. San Francisco, CA, August 30.
48. Homer-Dixon, Thomas F. (1994). "Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases." International Security, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 5-40.
49. Reprinted in Sean Lynn-Jones and Steven E. Miller, eds. (1995). Global Dangers: Changing Dimensions of International Security, Cambridge, MA and London: MIT Press, pp. 144-179.
50. Homer-Dixon, Thomas F. (1999). Environment, Scarcity, and Violence, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
51. Huth, Paul (1996). "Standing Your Ground: Territorial Disputes and International Order 1648-1989, Ann Arbor, ML University of Michigan Press.
52. Irani, Rustom (1991). "Water Wars." New Statesman and Society, Vol. 4, No. 149, pp. 24-25.
53. Jaggers, Keith and Ted Robert Gurr (1995). "Tracking Democracy's Third Wave with the Polity III Data." Journal of 'Peace Research, Vol. 32, No. 4, pp. 469-482.
54. Jansky, Libor, Masahiro Murakami, and Nevelina I. Pachova (2004). The Danube: Environmental Monitoring of an International River, Tokyo: United Nations University Press.
55. Jones, Daniel, Stuart A. Bremer, and J. David Singer (1996). "Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1916-1992: Rationale, Coding Rules, and Empirical Patterns." Conflict Management and Peace Science, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 163-213.
56. King, Gary, Michael Tomz, and Jason Wittenberg (2000). "Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation." American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 44, No. 2, pp. 347-361.
57. Kinsella, David (2000). "Arms Production in the Third Tier: An Analysis of Opportunity and Willingness." International Interactions, Vol. 26, No. 3, pp. 253-286.
58. Klare, Michael T. (2001a). "The New Geography of Conflict." Foreign Affairs, Vol. 80, No. 3, pp. 49-61.
59. Klare, Michael T. (2001b). Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict, New York: Metropolitan.
60. Koch, Howard E., Robert C. North, and Dina A. Zinnes (1960). "Some Theoretical Notes on Geography and International Conflict." Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 4-14.
61. Krishna, Raj (1998). "The Evolution and Context of Bank Policy for Projects of International Waterways." in Salman M. A. Salman and Laurence Boisson de Chazournes, eds. International Watercourses. Enhancing Cooperation and Managing Conflict. Proceedings of a World Bank Seminar, Washington, DC: World Bank, pp. 31-43.
62. Langer, William L. ed. (1972). An Encyclopedia of World History, Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin.
63. Lemke, Douglas (1995). "The Tyranny of Distance: Redefining Relevant Dyads." International Interactions, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp. 23-38.
64. Lomborg, Bjoørn (2001). "Resource Constraints or Abundance?" in Paul F. Diehl and Nils Petter Gleditsch, eds, Environmental Conflict, Boulder, CO: Westview, pp. 125-152.
65. McCaffrey, Stephen (1998). "The UN Convention on the Law on the Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses: Prospects and Pitfalls," in Salman M. A. Salman and Laurence Boisson de Chazournes, eds., International Watercourses. Enhancing Cooperation and Managing Conflict. Proceedings of a World Bank Seminar. Washington, DC: World Bank, pp. 17-28.
66. Mitchell, Sara M. and Brandon C. Prins (1999). "Beyond Territorial Contiguity: Issues at Stake in Democratic Militarized Interstate Disputes," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 169-183.
67. Most, Benjamin A., Philip Schrodt, Randolph Siverson, and Harvey Starr (1990). "Border and Alliance Effects in the Diffusion of Major Power Conflict, 1815-1965," in Charles Gochman and Alan Sabrosky, eds., Prisoners of War?: Nation-States in the Modern Era, Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, pp. 209-229.
68. Most, Benjamin A. and Harvey Starr (1989). Inquiry, Logic, and International Politics, Columbia, SC: University of South Carolina Press.
69. Mousseau, Michael (2000). "Market Prosperity, Democratic Consolidation, and Democratic Peace." Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 44, No. 4, pp. 472-507.
70. Mousseau, Michael, Håvard Hegre, and John Oneal (2003). "How the Wealth of Nations Conditions the Liberal Peace." European Journal of International Relations, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 277-314.
71. Murdoch, James C. and Todd Sandier (2004). "Civil Wars and Economic Growth: Spatial Dispersion." American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 48, No. 1, pp. 138-151.
72. New Scientist (2001). "Water Wars." Vol. 170, No. 2291, May 19, p. 3.
73. Raknerud, Arvid and Havard Hegre (1997). "The Hazard of War: Reassessing the Evidence for the Democratic Peace." Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 34, No. 4, pp. 385-404.
74. Rasier, Karen and William R. Thompson (2000). "Explaining Rivalry Escalation to War: Space, Position, and Contiguity in the Major Power Subsystem." International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 44, No. 3, pp. 503-530.
75. Richardson, Lewis Fry (1952). "Contiguity and Deadly Quarrels: The Local Pacifying Influence." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Vol. 115, No. 2, pp. 219-231.
76. Richardson, Lewis Fry (1960). Statistics of Deadly Quarrels, Pittsburgh, PA: Boxwood.
77. Richardson, Lewis Fry (1961). "The Problem of Contiguity: An Appendix of Statistics of Deadly Quarrels." General Systems Yearbook, Vol. 6, pp. 139-187.
78. Russen, Bruce M., J. David Singer, and Melvin Small (1968). "National Political Units in the Twentieth Century: A Standardized List." American Political Science Review, Vol. 62, No. 3, pp. 932-951.
79. Sarkees, Meredith Reid (2000). "The Correlates of War Data on War: An Update to 1997." Conflict Management and Peace Science, Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 123-144.
80. Schafer, Phil and Daniel M. Jones (1994/2000). States, Nations, and Entities, 1816-1992, Ann Arbor, MI Correlates of War Project.
81. Schwarz, Daniel M., Tom Deligiannis, and Thomas F. Homer-Dixon (2001). "The Environment and Violent Conflict." ch. 13. In Paul F. Diehl and Nils Petter Gleditsch, eds., Environmental Conflict, Boulder, CO: Westview, pp. 273-294.
82. Senese, Paul D. (1996). "Geographical Proximity and Issue Salience: Their Effects on the Escalation of Militarized Interstate Conflict." Conflict Management and Peace Science, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 133-161.
83. Serageldin, Ismail et al. (2000). A Water Secure World: Vision for Water, Life, and the Environment. Report of the World Commission for Water in the 21st Century. Cairo: World Water Council, www.worldwatercouncil.org/Vision/ Documents/CommitteeReport.pdf.
84. Singer, J. David and Melvin Small (1993). Correlates of War Project: National Material Capabilities Data, 1816-1985, Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research. Codebook and computer file, ICPSR no. 9903.
85. Siverson, Randolph M. and Harvey Starr (1989). "Alliance and Border Effects on the War Behavior of States: Refining the Interaction Opportunity Model." Conflict Management and Peace Science, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 21-46.
86. Siverson, Randolph M. and Harvey Starr (1990). "Opportunity, Willingness, and the Diffusion of War." American Political Science Review, Vol. 84, No. 1, pp. 47-67.
87. Small, Melvin and J. David Singer (1982). Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816-1980, Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
88. Sprout, Harold and Margaret Sprout (1965). The Ecological Perspective on Human Affairs, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
89. Starr, Harvey (1978). "Opportunity and Willingness as Ordering Concepts in the Study of War." International Interactions, Vol. 4, No. 4, pp. 363-387.
90. Starr, Harvey (1991). "Joining Political and Geographic Perspectives: Geopolitics and International Relations." International Interactions, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 1-9.
91. Starr, Harvey (1994). "Revolution and War: Rethinking the Linkage between Internal and External Conflict." Political Research Quarterly, Vol. 47, No. 2, pp. 481-507.
92. Starr, Harvey (2002a). "Opportunity, Willingness, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS): Reconceptualizing Borders in International Relations." Political Geography, Vol. 21, No. 2, pp. 243-261.
93. Starr, Harvey (2002b). "The 'Nature' of Contiguous Borders: Ease of Interaction, Salience, and the Analysis of Crisis." International Interactions, Vol. 28, No. 3, pp. 213-235.
94. Starr, Harvey and Benjamin A. Most (1978). "Return Journey: Richardson, Frontiers, and Wars in the 1946-1965 Era." Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 22, No. 3, pp. 441-467.
95. Starr, Harvey and Benjamin A. Most (1983). "Contagion and Border Effects on Contemporary African Conflict." Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 92-117.
96. Starr, Joyce R. (1991). "Water Wars." Foreign Policy, No. 82, pp. 17-36.
97. StataCorp (2003). Stata Statistical Software Release 8.0 User's Guide. College Station, TX: Stata Corporation.
98. Stearns, Peter N., ed. (2001). The Encyclopedia of World History, Cambridge, MA: Houghton Mifflin.
99. Stinnett, Douglas M., Jaroslav Tir, Philip Schafer, Paul F. Diehl, and Charles Gochman (2002). "The Correlates of War Project Direct Contiguity Data, Version 3.0." Conflict Management and Peace Science, Vol. 19, No. 2, pp. 59-67.
100. Swain, Ashok (1997). "Ethiopia, the Sudan, and Egypt: The Nile River Dispute." Journal of Modern African Studies, Vol. 35, No. 4, pp. 675-694.
101. Tir, Jaroslav and Paul F. Diehl (2002). "Geographic Dimensions of Enduring Rivalries." Political Geography, Vol. 21, No. 2, pp. 263-286.
102. Tir, Jaroslav, Philip Schafer, Paul F. Diehl, and Gary Goertz (1998). "Territorial Changes, 1816-1996: Procedures and Data." Conflict Management and Peace Science, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 89-97.
103. Toset, Hans Petter Wollebaek (1998). "Kampen om elvevannet - en kvantitativ analyse av elvegrensenes betydning for lands involvering i internasjonale militariserte disputter 1816-1992 [The Struggle over River Water. A Quantitative Analysis of the Significance of River Boundaries for the Involvement of Countries in International Militarized Disputes]." Thesis for the Cand.polit. degree, NTNU, March. [Data available on www.prio.np/cwp/ datasets]
104. Toset, Hans Fetter Wollebaek, Nils Fetter Gleditsch, and Håvard Hegre (2000). "Shared Rivers and Interstate Conflict." Political Geography, Vol. 19, No. 6, pp. 971-996. [The dataset can be downloaded from www.prio.no/cwp/datasets]
105. UN (2003). Water for People, Water for Life, Paris: UNESCO, www.unesco.org/ water/wwap/wwdr.
106. UNEP (1999). Global Environmental Outlook 2000. Nairobi: United Nations Environment Programme, and London: Earthscan, www.unep.org/Geo/geo2000/.
107. Vasquez, John (1993). The War Puzzle, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
108. Vasquez, John (1995). "Why Do Neighbors Fight? Proximity, Interaction, or Territoriality." Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 277-293.
109. WRI, annual. World Resources, New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, for World Resources Institute.
110. Wesley, Paul James (1962). "Frequency of Wars and Geographical Opportunity." Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 6, No. 4, pp. 387-389.
111. Wohlstetter, Albert (1968). "Illusions of Distance." Foreign Affairs. Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 242-255.
112. Wolf, Aaron T. (1999). "'Water Wars' and Water Reality: Conflict and Cooperation Along International Waterways." in Steve Lonergan, ed., Environmental Change, Adaptation, and Human Security, Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic, pp. 251-265.
113. Wolf, Aaron T. and Jesse H. Hamner (2000). "Trends in Transboundary Water Disputes and Dispute Resolution." In Miriam R. Lowi and Brian R. Shaw, eds., Environment and Security: Discourses and Practices, New York: St. Martin's, pp. 123-148.
114. Wolf, Aaron T., Jeffrey A. Natharius, Jeffrey J. Danielson, Brian S. Ward, and Jan K. Pender (1999). "International River Basins of the World." Water Resources Development, Vol. 15, No. 4, pp. 387-427.
115. Yoffe, Shira, Aaron T. Wolf, and Mark Giordano (2003). "Conflict and Cooperation over International Freshwater Resources: Indicators of Basins at Risk." Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 39, No. 5, pp. 1109-1126.