Forecasting for intermittent demand: The estimation of an unbiased average

Journal of the Operational Research Society

Volumn 57, Issue 5, 2006, Pages 588-592

  Shale, E A ^a,c   Boylan, J E ^b   Johnston, F R ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WARWICK   (United Kingdom)

^b BUCKINGHAMSHIRE NEW UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF WARWICK   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Forecasting; Intermittent demand; Inventory control

Indexed keywords

COMPUTATIONAL COMPLEXITY; COMPUTATIONAL METHODS; ESTIMATION; INVENTORY CONTROL; OPERATIONS RESEARCH; PROBLEM SOLVING;

ARRIVAL PROCESSES; CORRECTION FACTOR; INTERMITTENT DEMAND;

FORECASTING;

EID: 33646690760     PISSN: 01605682     EISSN: 14769360     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602031     Document Type: Article

References (18)

1. Boylan JE and Syntetos AA (2003). Intermittent demand forecasting: size-interval methods based on averaging and smoothing. Proceedings of the International Conference on Quantitative Methods in Industry and Commerce, Athens.
2. Brown RG (1963). Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction. Prentice-Hall: Englewood Cliffs, NJ, pp 107-108.
3. Burgin TA (1969). Time to sell a fixed quantity of stock depleted by distributed demand. Opl Res Q 20: 421-428.
4. Burgin TA (1975). The Gamma distribution and inventory control. Opl Res Q 18: 35-52.
5. Chatfield C and Goodhardt GJ (1973). A consumer purchasing model with Erlang inter-purchase times. J Am Statist Ass 40: 828-835.
6. Clark CE (1957). Mathematical analysis of an inventory case. Opl Res 5: 627-643.
7. Croston JD (1972). Forecasting and stock control for intermittent demands. Opl Res Q 23: 289-304.
8. Eaves AHC and Kingsman BG (2004). Forecasting for the ordering and stock-holding of spare parts. J Opl Res Soc 55: 431-437.
9. Evans M, Hastings N and Peacock B (2000). Statistical Distributions, 3rd edn, Wiley: New York.
10. Gallagher DJ (1969). Two periodic review inventory models with backorders and stuttering Poisson demands. AIIE Trans 1: 164-171.
11. Hill RM and Odoni WK (1988). Time to sell a given quantity of stock. J Opl Res Soc 39: 969-973.
12. Johnston FR, Boylan JE. Meadows M and Shale EA (1999). Some properties of simple moving averages when applied to forecasting a time series. J Opl Res Soc 50: 1267-1271.
13. Johnston FR. Boylan JE and Shale EA (2003). An examination of the size of orders from customers, their characterisation and the implications for the inventory control of slow moving items. J Opl Res Soc 54: 833-837.
14. Kwan H W (1991). On the demand distributions of slow moving items. PhD Thesis, Lancaster University.
15. Syntelos AA and Boylan JE (2001). On the bias of intermittent demand estimates. Int J Prod Econ 71: 457-466.
16. Syntetos AA and Boylan JE (2005). The accuracy of intermittent demand estimates. Int J Forecasting 21: 303-314.
17. Ward JB (1978). Determining re-order points when demand is lumpy. Mngt Sci 24: 623-632.
18. Watson RB (1987). The effects of demand-forecast fluctuations on customer service and inventory costs when demand is lumpy. J Opl Res Soc 38: 75-82.