Optimizing presence-absence surveys for detecting population trends

Journal of Wildlife Management

Volumn 70, Issue 1, 2006, Pages 8-18

  Rhodes, Jonathan R ^a,c   Tyre, Andrew J ^b   Jonzén, Niclas ^a,c   McAlpine, Clive A ^a   Possingham, Hugh P ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND   (Australia)

^b UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA LINCOLN   (United States)

^c CSIRO   (Australia)

Author keywords

Koala; Markov model; Monitoring; Observation error; Occupancy; Optimization; Population trends; Presence absence surveys; Statistical power

Indexed keywords

HABITAT CONSERVATION; LANDSCAPE; MONITORING; NATURE CONSERVATION; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SAMPLING;

PHASCOLARCTOS CINEREUS;

EID: 33646489328     PISSN: 0022541X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2193/0022-541X(2006)70[8:OPSFDP]2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Review

References (54)

1. Anderson, D. R., K. P. Burnham, and W. L. Thompson. 2000. Null hypothesis testing: problems, prevalence, and an alternative. Journal of Wildlife Management 64:912-923.
2. Bart, J., and S. P. Klosiewski. 1989. Use of presence-absence to measure changes in avian density. Journal of Wildlife Management 53:847-852.
3. Berger, U., G. Wagner, and W. F. Wolff. 1999. Virtual biologists observe virtual grasshoppers: an assessment of different mobility parameters for the analysis of movement patterns. Ecological Modelling 115:119-127.
4. Bowers, M. A. 1996. Species as indicators of large-scale environmental change: a computer simulation model of population decline. Ecoscience 3:502-511.
5. Buckland, S. T., and D. A. Elston. 1993. Empirical models for the spatial distribution of wildlife, Journal of Applied Ecology 30:478-495.
6. Burnham, K. P., and D. R. Anderson. 2002. Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical information-theoretic approach. Second edition. Springer-Verlag, New York, USA.
7. Dique, D. S., J. Thompson, H. J. Preece, D. L. de Villiers, and F. N. Carrick. 2003. Dispersal patterns in a regional koala population in south-east Queensland. Wildlife Research 30:281-290.
8. Eberhard, I. D. 1972. Ecology of the koala, Phascolarctos dnereus (Goldfuss), on Flinders Chase, Kangaroo Island, Dissertation, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia.
9. Field, S. A., A. J. Tyre, N. Jonzén, J. R. Rhodes, and H. P. Possingham. 2004. Minimizing the cost of environmental management decisions by optimizing statistical thresholds. Ecology Letters 7:669-675.
10. Fretwell, S. D., and H. L. Lucas. 1970. On territorial behavior and other factors influencing habitat distribution in birds. Acta Biotheoretica 19:16-36.
11. Gall, B. C. 1980. Aspects of the ecology of the koala, Phascolarctos cinereus (Goldfuss), in Tucki Tucki Nature Reserve, New South Wales. Australian Wildlife Research 7:167-76.
12. Gaston, K. J., T. M. Blackburn, J. J. D. Greenwood, R. D. Gregory, R. M. Quinn, and J. H. Lawton. 2000. Abundance-occupancy relationships. Journal of Applied Ecology 37:39-59.
13. Gerrodette, T. 1987. A power analysis for detecting trends. Ecology 68:1364-1372.
14. Grimm, V., T. Wyszomirski, D. Aikman, and J. Uchmanski. 1999. Individual-based modelling and ecological theory: synthesis of a workshop. Ecological Modelling 115:275-282.
15. Hilborn, R., and M. Mangel. 1997. The ecological detective. Confronting models with data. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
16. Hosmer, D. W., and S. Lemeshow. 2000. Applied logistic regression. Second edition, John Wiley & Sons, New York, New York, USA.
17. James, F. C., C. E. McCulloch, and D. A. Wiedenfeld. 1996. New approaches to the analysis of population trends in land birds. Ecology 77:13-27.
18. Jassby, A. D., and T. M. Powell. 1990. Detecting changes in ecological time series. Ecology 71:2044-2052.
19. Johnson, D. H. 1999. The insignificance of statistical significance testing. Journal of Wildlife Management 63:763-772.
20. Jonzén, N., J. R. Rhodes, and H. P. Possingham. 2005. Trend detection in source-sink systems: when should sink habitats be monitored? Ecological Applications. 15:326-334.
21. Kendall, K. C., L. H. Metzgar, D. A. Patterson, and B. M. Steele. 1992. Power of sign surveys to monitor population trends. Ecological Applications 2:422-430.
22. Lindenmayer, D. B., R. B. Cunningham, M. L. Pope, and C. F. Donnelly. 1999. The response of arboreal marsupials to landscape context: a large-scale fragmentation study. Ecological Applications 9:594-611.
23. Lindenmayer, D. B., M. A. McCarthy, K. M. Parris, and M. L. Pope. 2000. Habitat fragmentation, landscape context, and mammalian assemblages in southeastern Australia. Journal of Mammalogy 81:787-797.
24. Lunney, D., A. Matthews, C. Moon, and S. Ferrier. 2000. Incorporating habitat mapping into practical koala conservation on private lands. Conservation Biology 14:669-680.
25. Lunney, D., C. Moon, A. Matthews, and J. Turbill. 1999. Coffs Harbour City koala plan of management. Part A, The plan. NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service, Hurstville, Australia.
26. Lunney, D., S. Phillips, J. Callaghan, and D. Coburn. 1998. Determining the distribution of koala habitat across a shire as a basis for conservation: a case study from Port Stephens, New South Wales. Pacific Conservation Biology 4:186-196.
27. MacKenzie, D. I., J. D. Nichols, J. E. Hines, M. G. Knutson, and A. B. Franklin. 2003. Estimating site occupancy, colonization, and local extinction when a species is detected imperfectly. Ecology 84:2200-2207.
28. MacKenzie, D. I., J. D. Nichols, G. B. Lachman, S. Droege, J. A. Royle, and C. A. Langtimm. 2002. Estimating site occupancy rates when detection probabilities are less than one. Ecology 83:2248-2255.
29. Mapstone, B. D. 1995. Scalable decision rules for environmental impact studies: effect size, type I, and type II errors. Ecological Applications 5:401-410.
30. Martin, R., and K. Handasyde. 1990. Population dynamics of the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) in southeastern Australia. Pages 75-84 in A. K. Lee, K. A. Handasyde, and G. D. Sanson, editors. Biology of the koala. Surrey Beatty & Sons, Chipping Norton, Australia.
31. Melzer, A. 1995. Aspects of the ecology of the koala, Phascolarctos cinereus (Goldfuss, 1817), in the sub-humid woodlands of central Queensland. Dissertation, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Australia.
32. Miller, J., and J. Franklin. 2002. Modeling the distribution of four vegetation alliances using generalized linear models and classification trees with spatial dependence. Ecological Modelling 157:227-247.
33. Morris, D. W. 1994. Habitat matching: alternatives and implications to populations and communities. Evolutionary Ecology 8:387-406.
34. Muenz, L. R., and L. V. Rubinstein. 1985. Markov models for covariate dependence of binary sequences. Biometrics 41:91-101.
35. Pearce, J., and S. Ferrier. 2000. Evaluating the predictive performance of habitat models developed using logistic regression. Ecological Modelling 133:225-245.
36. Peduzzi, P., J. Concato, E. Kemper, T. R. Holford, and A. R. Feinstein. 1996. A simulation study of the number of events per variable in logistic regression analysis. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 49:1373-1379.
37. Penn, A. M., W. B. Sherwin, G. Gordon, D. Lunney, A. Melzer, and R. C. Lacy. 2000. Demographic forecasting in koala conservation. Conservation Biology 14:629-638.
38. Peterman, R. M. 1990. Statistical power analysis can improve fisheries research and management. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 47:2-15.
39. Port Stephens Council. 2001. Port Stephens Council comprehensive koala plan of management. Part 1: the CKPoM. Port Stephens Council, Raymond Terrace, Australia.
40. Press, W. H., S. A. Teukolsky, W. T. Vetterling, and B. P. Flannery. 1992. Numerical recipes in C. The art of scientific computing. Second edition. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
41. Pulliam, H. R., and B. J. Danielson. 1991. Sources, sinks, and habitat selection: a landscape perspective on population dynamics. American Naturalist 137:350-366.
42. Reed, P. C., D. Lunney, and P. Walker. 1990. A 1986-1987 survey of the koala Phascolarctos cinereus (Goldfuss) in New South Wales and an ecological interpretation of its distribution. Pages 55-74 in A. K. Lee, K. A. Handasyde, and G. D. Sanson, editors. Biology of the koala. Surrey Beatty & Sons, Chipping Norton, Australia.
43. Reunanen, P., A. Nikula, M, Mönkkönen, E. Hurme, and V. Nivala. 2002. Predicting occupancy for the Siberian flying squirrel in old-growth forest patches. Ecological Applications 12:1188-1198.
44. Royle, J. A., and J. D. Nichols. 2003. Estimating abundance from repeated presence-absence data or point counts. Ecology 84:777-790.
45. Saupe, D. 1988. Algorithms for random fractals. Pages 71-136 in H. Peitgen, and D. Saupe, editors. The science of fractal images. Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA.
46. Shea, K., and M. Mangel. 2001. Detection of population trends in threatened coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 58:375-385.
47. Shea, K., H. P. Possingham, W. W. Murdoch, and R. Roush. 2002. Active adaptive management in insect pest and weed control: intervention with a plan for learning. Ecological Applications 12:927-936.
48. Strayer, D. L. 1999. Statistical power of presence-absence data to detect population declines. Conservation Biology 13:1034-1038.
49. Sullivan, B. J., G. S. Baxter, and A. T. Lisle. 2002. Low-density koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations in the mulgalands of south-east Queensland. I. Faecal pellet sampling protocol. Wildlife Research 29:455-462.
50. Thompson, S. K. 1992. Sampling. John Wiley & Sons, New York, New York, USA.
51. Tyre, A. J., H. P. Possingham, and D. B. Lindenmayer. 2001. Inferring process from pattern: can territory occupancy provide information about life history parameters? Ecological Applications 11:1722-1737.
52. Tyre, A. J., B. Tenhumberg, S. A. Field, D. Niejalke, K. Parris, and H. P. Possingham. 2003. Improving precision and reducing bias in biological surveys: estimating false-negative error rates. Ecological Applications 13: 1790-1801.
53. White, N. A. 1999. Ecology of the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) in rural southeast Queensland, Australia. Wildlife Research 26:731-744.
54. Wiegand, T., J. Naves, T. Stephan, and A. Fernandez. 1998. Assessing the risk of extinction for the brown bear (Ursus arctos) in the Cordillera Cantabrica, Spain. Ecological Monographs 68:539-570.