Past and future changes in sea level near the Estonian coast in relation to changes in wind climate

Boreal Environment Research

Volumn 11, Issue 2, 2006, Pages 123-142

  Suursaar, Ülo ^a   Jaagus, Jaak ^b   Kullas, Tiit ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TARTU   (Estonia)

^b UNIVERSITY OF TARTU   (Estonia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 33646382822     PISSN: 12396095     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (65)

1. Andersson H.C. 2002. Influence of long-term regional and large-scale atmospheric circulation on the Baltic Sea level. Tellus 54A: 76-88.
2. Andrejev O., Myrberg K., Alenius P. & Lundberg A. 2004. Mean circulation and water exchange in the Gulf of Finland - a study based on three-dimensional modelling. Boreal Env. Res. 9: 1-16.
3. Berzinsh V., Bethers U. & Sennikovs J. 1994. Gulf of Riga: bathymetric, hydrological and meteorological databases, and calculation of the water exchange. Proc. Latvian Acad. Sci. Section B 7/8: 107-117.
4. Blayo E. & Debreu L. 2005. Revisiting open boundary conditions from the point of view of characteristic variables. Ocean Modelling 9: 231-252.
5. Ekman M. 1988. The world's longest continued series of sea level observation. Pure Appl. Geophys. 127: 73-77.
6. Ekman M. 1996. A consistent map of the postglacial uplift of Fennoscandia. Terra Nova 8: 158-165.
7. Ekman M. 1998. Secular change of the seasonal sea level variation in the Baltic Sea and secular change of the winter climate. Geophysica 34: 131-140.
8. Ekman M. 1999. Climate changes detected through the world's longest sea level series. Global and Planetary Change 21: 215-224.
9. Ekman M. & Stigebrandt A. 1990. Secular change of the seasonal-variation in sea-level and the pole tide in the Baltic Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans 95: 5379-5385.
10. Girs A.A. & Kondratovich L.I. 1978. [Methods of long-term weather forecasts], Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat. [In Russian].
11. Gornitz V., Lebedeff S. & Hansen J. 1982. Global sea level trend in the past century. Science 215: 1611-1614.
12. Hagen E. & Feistel R. 2005. Climatic turning points and regime shifts in the Baltic Sea region: the Baltic winter index (WIBIX) 1659-2002. Boreal Env. Res. 10: 211-224.
13. Heyen H., Zorita E. & von Storch H. 1996. Statistical down-scaling of monthly mean North Atlantic air-pressure to sea level anomalies in the Baltic Sea. Tellus 48A: 312-323.
14. Hu Z.-Z. & Wu Z. 2004. The intensification and shift of the annual North Atlantic Oscillation in a global warming scenario simulation. Tellus 56A: 112-124.
15. Hurrell J.W. 1995. Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269: 676-679.
16. Hurrel J.W. & van Loon H. 1997. Decadal variations in climate associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Climate Change 36: 301-326.
17. IPCC 2001. Climate change 2001: Synthesis Report, Cambridge University Press.
18. Jaagus J. 2006. Climate change in Estonia during the second half of the 20th century in relationship with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 83: 77-88.
19. Jaagus J., Post P. & Toomingas O. 2004. Storminess on the western coast of Estonia in relation to large-scale atmospheric circulation. In: Isemer H.-J. (ed.), Fourth Study Conference on BALTEX, pp. 127-128.
20. Jevrejeva S., Rüdja A. & Mäkinen J. 2001. Postglacial rebound in Fennoscandia: new results from Estonian tide gauges. In: Siders M. (ed.), Gravity, geoid and geodynamics, IAG International Symposium, Banff, Alberta, Canada, July 31-August 5, 2000. IAG Symposia 123, Springer, pp. 193-198.
21. Jevrejeva S., Moore J.C., Woodworth P.L. & Grinsted A. 2005. Influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on European sea level: results based on the wavelet transform method. Tellus 57A: 183-193.
22. Johansson M.M., Kahma K.K. & Boman H. 2003. An improved estimate for the long-term mean sea level on the Finnish coasts. Geophysica 39: 51-73.
23. Johansson M., Kahma K.K. & Boman H. 2004. Scenarios for sea level on the Finnish coast. Boreal Env. Res. 9: 153-166.
24. Johansson M., Boman H., Kahma K.K. & Launiainen J. 2001. Trends in sea level variability in the Baltic Sea. Boreal Env. Res. 6: 159-179.
25. Jones J.E. & Davies A.M. 2001. Influence of wave-current interaction, and high frequency forcing upon storm induced currents and elevations. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 53: 397-413.
26. Jones P.D., Jónsson T. & Wheeler D. 1997. Extension to the North Atlantic Oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and South-West Iceland. Int. J. Climatol. 17: 1433-1450.
27. Jylhä K., Tuomenvirta H. & Rusteenoja K. 2004. Climate change projections for Finland during the 21st century. Boreal Env. Res. 9: 127-152.
28. Keevallik S. & Rajasalu R. 2001. Winds on the 500 hPa isobaric level over Estonia (1953-1998). Phys. Chem. Earth B 26: 425-429.
29. Kont A., Jaagus J. & Aunap R. 2003. Climate change scenarios and the effect of sea-level rise for Estonia. Global and Planetary Change 36: 1-15.
30. Kont A., Jaagus J., Oja T., Järvet A. & Rivis R. 2002. Biophysical impacts of the climate change on some terrestrial ecosystems in Estonia. GeoJournal 57: 169-181.
31. Kullas T., Otsmann M. & Suursaar Ü. 2000. Comparative calculations of flows in the straits of the Gulf of Riga and the Väinameri. Proc. Estonian. Acad. Sci. Eng. 6: 284-294.
32. Lass H.U. & Matthäus W. 1996. On temporal wind variations forcing salt water inflows into the Baltic Sea. Tellus 48A: 663-671.
33. Lazarenko N.N. 1961. [Variability of sea level in the Baltic Sea]. Trudy Gosudarstvennogo Okeanograficheskogo Instituta (Leningrad) 65: 39-127. [In Russian].
34. Lazarenko N.N. 1986. Variations of mean level and water volume of the Baltic Sea. In: Water Balance of the Baltic Sea. Baltic Sea Environm. Proc. 16, pp. 64-80.
35. Lehmann A., Krauss W. & Hinrichesen H.-H. 2002. Effects of remote and local atmospheric forcing on circulation and upwelling in the Baltic Sea. Tellus 54A: 299-316.
36. Libiseller C. & Grimvall A. 2002. Performance of partial Mann-Kendall test for trend detection in the presence of covariates. Environmetrics 13: 71-84.
37. Matthäus W., Bergström S., Carlsson B., Graham L.P. & Andersson L. 2003. General meteorology, hydrology and hydrography. Environment of the Baltic Sea Area 1994-1998. Balt. Sea Environ. Proc. 82B: 21-28.
38. Meier H.E.M. & Krauker F. 2002. Simulating Baltic Sea climate for the period 1902-1998 with the Rossby Centre coupled ice-ocean model. Reports Oceanography No. 30, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping.
39. Meier H.E.M., Broman B. & Kjellström E. 2004. Simulated sea level in past and future climates of the Baltic Sea. Climate Research 27: 59-75.
40. Orviku K., Jaagus J., Kont A., Ratas U. & Rivis R. 2003. Increasing activity of coastal processes associated with climate change in Estonia. Journal of Coastal Research 19: 364-375.
41. Otsmann M., Suursaar Ü. & Kullas T. 2001. The oscillatory nature of the flows in the system of straits and small semienclosed basins of the Baltic Sea. Cont. Shelf Res. 21: 1577-1603.
42. Plag H.P. & Tsimplis M.N. 1999. Temporal variability of the seasonal sea-level cycle in the North Sea and Baltic Sea in relation to climate variability. Global and Planetary Change 20: 173-203.
43. Räisänen I. & Alexandersson H. 2003. A probabilistic view on recent and near future climate change in Sweden. Tellus 55A: 113-125.
44. Räisänen J., Hansson U., Ullerstig A., Döscher R., Graham L.P., Jones C., Meier H.E.M., Samuelsson P. & Willen U. 2003. GCM driven simulations of recent and future climate with the Rossby Centre coupled atmosphere - Baltic Sea regional climate model RCAO. Reports Meteorology and Climatology No. 101, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping.
45. Räisänen J., Hansson U., Ullerstig A., Döscher R., Graham L.P., Jones C., Meier H.E.M., Samuelsson P. & Willen U. 2004. European climate in the late twenty-first century: regional simulations with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios. Climate Dynamics 22: 13-31.
46. Rogers C.J. 1984. The association between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Southern Oscillation in the northern hemisphere. Mon. Wea. Rev. 112: 1999-2015.
47. Salmi T, Määttä A., Anttila P., Ruoho-Airola T. & Amnell T. 2002. Detecting trends of annual values of atmospheric pollutants by the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates - the EXCEL template application MAKESENS. Publications on air quality 31. Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki.
48. Samuelsson M. & Stigebrandt A. 1996. Main characteristics of the long-term sea level variability in the Baltic Sea. Tellus 48A: 672-683.
49. Sildvee H. 1998. Gravity measurements of Estonia, Reports of the Finnish Geodetic Institute 3.
50. Smith S.D. & Banke E.G. 1975. Variation of the sea surface drag coefficient with wind speed. Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society 101: 665-673.
51. Soomere T. 2001. Extreme wind speeds and spatially uniform wind events in the Baltic Proper. Proc. Estonian Acad. Sci. Eng. 7: 195-211.
52. Stigebrandt A. 1984. Analysis of an 89-year-long sea level record from the Kattegat with special reference to the barotropically driven water exchange between the Baltic and the sea. Tellus: 36A: 401-408.
53. Stigebrandt A. & Gustafsson B.G. 2003. Response of the Baltic Sea to climate change - theory and observations. J. Sea Res. 49: 243-256.
54. Suursaar Ü., Kullas T. & Otsmann M. 2002. A model study of the sea level variations in the Gulf of Riga and the Väinameri Sea. Cont. Shelf Res. 22: 2001-2019.
55. Suursaar Ü., Kullas T., Otsmann M. & Kõuts T. 2003. Extreme sea level events in the coastal waters of West Estonia. J. Sea Res. 49: 295-303.
56. Suursaar Ü., Kullas T., Otsmann M., Saaremäe I., Kuik J. & Merilain, M. 2006. Cyclone Gudrun in January 2005 and modelling its hydrodynamic consequences in the Estonian coastal waters. Boreal Env. Res. 11: 143-159.
57. Thompson D.W. & Wallace J.M. 1998. The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys. Res. Lett. 25: 1297-1300.
58. Ulbrich U. & Christoph M. 1999. A shift of the NAO and increasing storm track activity over Europe due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. Climate Dynamics 15: 551-559.
59. Vallner L., Sildvee H. & Torim A. 1988. Recent crustal movements in Estonia. Journal of Geodynamics 9: 215-223.
60. Vermeer M., Kakkuri J., Mälkki P., Boman H., Kahma K.K. & Leppäranta M. 1988. Land uplift and sea level variability spectrum using fully measured monthly means of tide gauge readings. Finnish Marine Research 256: 3-75.
61. Wakelin S.L., Woodworth P.L., Flather R.A. & Williams J.A. 2003. Sea-level dependence on the NAO over the NW European Continental Shelf. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 1403, doi:10.1029/2003GL017041.
62. Wallace J.M. 2000. North Atlantic Oscillation/annular mode: Two paradigms - one phenomenon. Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society 126: 791-805.
63. Woodworth P.L. 1987. Trends in UK mean sea-level. Marine Geodesy 11: 57-87.
64. Woodworth P.L. 1990. A search for accelerations in records of European mean sea level. International Journal of Climatology 10: 129-143.
65. Yarnal B. 1993. Synoptic climatology in environmental analysis, Belhaven Press, London.