Spatiotemporal variation in survival rates: Implications for population dynamics of yellow-bellied marmots

Ecology

Volumn 87, Issue 4, 2006, Pages 1027-1037

  Ozgul, Arpat ^a   Armitage, Kenneth B ^b   Blumstein, Daniel T ^c   Oli, Madan K ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Age specific survival; Capture mark recapture (CMR); Cormack Jolly Seber model; Environmental covariates; Marmota flaviventris; Population dynamics; Pradel's reverse time model; Spatial variation; Spatiotemporal population dynamics; Temporal variation

Indexed keywords

ECOLOGICAL MODELING; JUVENILE; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION GROWTH; RODENT; SPATIAL VARIATION; TEMPORAL VARIATION;

ANIMAL; ARTICLE; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SCIURIDAE; SURVIVAL RATE;

ANIMALS; MARMOTA; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SURVIVAL RATE;

ANIMALIA; MAMMALIA; MARMOTA FLAVIVENTRIS; SCIURIDAE; VERTEBRATA;

EID: 33646158466     PISSN: 00129658     EISSN: 00129658     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/0012-9658(2006)87[1027:SVISRI]2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. Armitage, K. B. 1991. Social and population dynamics of yellow-bellied marmots: results from long-term research. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 22:379-407.
2. Armitage, K. B. 1994. Unusual mortality in a yellow-bellied marmot population. Pages 5-13 in V. Y. Rumiantsev, editor. Actual problems of marmot investigation. ABF Publishing House, Moscow, Russia.
3. Armitage, K. B. 1998. Reproductive strategies of yellow-bellied marmots: energy conservation and differences between the sexes. Journal of Mammalogy 79:385-393.
4. Armitage, K. B. 2003. Marmots: (Marmota monax and allies). Pages 188-210 in G. A. Feldhamer, B. C. Thompson, and J. A. Chapman, editors. Wild mammals of North America: biology, management, and conservation. Second edition. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
5. Armitage, K. B. 2004. Badger predation on yellow-bellied marmots. American Midland Naturalist 151:378-387.
6. Armitage, K. B., and O. A. Schwartz. 2000. Social enhancement of fitness in yellow-bellied marmots. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA) 97:12149-12152.
7. Blums, P., J. D. Nichols, J. E. Hines, and A. Mednis. 2002. Sources of variation in survival and breeding site fidelity in three species of European ducks. Journal of Animal Ecology 71:438-450.
8. Blumstein, D. T., A. Ozgul, V. Yovovich, D. H. Van Vuren, and K. B. Armitage. In press. Effect of predation risk on presence and persistence of yellow-bellied marmot colonies. Journal of Zoology, London.
9. Bronson, M. T. 1979. Altitudinal variation in the life-history of the golden-mantled ground-squirrel (Spermophilus lateralis). Ecology 60:272-279.
10. Burnham, K. P., and D. R. Anderson. 2002. Model selection and inference: a practical information-theoretic approach. Second edition. Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA.
11. Burnham, K. P., D. R. Anderson, G. C. White, C. Brownie, and K. H. Pollock. 1987. Design and analysis methods for fish survival experiments based on release-capture. American Fisheries Society Monograph 5:1-437.
12. Cairns, D. K. 1992. Population regulation of seabird colonies. Current Ornithology 9:37-61.
13. Caswell, H., M. Fujiwara, and S. Brault. 1999. Declining survival probability threatens the North Atlantic right whale. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA) 96:3308-3313.
14. Choquet, R., A. M. Reboulet, R. Pradel, O. Gimenez, and J. D. Lebreton. 2003. User's manual for U-Care. Mimeographed document, CEFE/CNRS, Montpellier, France. 〈http://www.cefe.cnrs.fr/biom/〉
15. Clutton-Brock, T. H., M. Major, S. D. Albon, and F. E. Guinness. 1987. Early development and population dynamics in red deer. 1. Density-dependent effects on juvenile survival. Journal of Animal Ecology 56:53-67.
16. Coulson, T., S. Albon, J. Pilkington, and T. Clutton-Brock. 1999. Small-scale spatial dynamics in a fluctuating ungulate population. Journal of Animal Ecology 68:658-671.
17. Coulson, T., E. J. Milner-Gulland, and T. Clutton-Brock. 2000. The relative roles of density and climatic variation on population dynamics and fecundity rates in three contrasting ungulate species. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B 267:1771-1779.
18. Doak, D., P. Kareiva, and B. Kleptetka. 1994. Modeling population viability for the desert tortoise in the western Mojave Desert. Ecological Applications 4:446-460.
19. Dobson, F. S., and M. K. Oli. 2001. The demographic basis of population regulation in Columbian ground squirrels. American Naturalist 158:236-247.
20. Doherty, P. F., E. A. Schreiber, J. D. Nichols, J. E. Hines, W. A. Link, G. A. Schenk, and R. W. Schreiber. 2004. Testing life history predictions in a long-lived seabird: a population matrix approach with improved parameter estimation. Oikos 105:606-618.
21. Douglas, C. L., and D. M. Leslie. 1986. Influence of weather and density on lamb survival of desert mountain sheep. Journal of Wildlife Management 50:153-156.
22. Farand, E., D. Allaine, and J. Coulon. 2002. Variation in survival rates for the alpine marmot (Marmota marmota): effects of sex, age, year, and climatic factors. Canadian Journal of Zoology 80:342-349.
23. Fowler, C. W., and T. D. Smith. 1981. Dynamics of large mammal populations. Wiley, New York, New York, USA.
24. Francis, C. M. 1995. Estimating survival rates from recoveries of birds ringed as young: a case study. Journal of Applied Statistics 22:567-577.
25. Franklin, A. B. 2001. Exploring ecological relationships in survival and estimating rates of population change using program MARK. Pages 290-296 in R. Field, R. J. Warren, H. Okarma, and P. R. Sievert, editors. Wildlife, land, and people: priorities for the 21st century. Second International Wildlife Management Congress. The Wildlife Society, Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
26. Frase, B. A., and R. S. Hoffmann. 1980. Marmota flaviventris. Mammalian Species 135:1-8.
27. Gaillard, J. M., M. Festa-Bianchet, and N. G. Yoccoz. 1998. Population dynamics of large herbivores: variable recruitment with constant adult survival. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 13:58-63.
28. Gaillard, J. M., M. Festa-Bianchet, N. G. Yoccoz, A. Loison, and C. Toigo. 2000. Temporal variation in fitness components and population dynamics of large herbivores. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 31:367-393.
29. Gillis, E. A., D. S. Hik, R. Boonstra, T. J. Karels, and C. J. Krebs. 2005. Being high is better: effects of elevation and habitat on arctic ground squirrel demography. Oikos 108:231-240.
30. Graham, I. M., and X. Lambin. 2002. The impact of weasel predation on cyclic field-vole survival: the specialist predator hypothesis contradicted. Journal of Animal Ecology 71:946-956.
31. Heppell, S. S., H. Caswell, and L. B. Crowder. 2000. Life histories and elasticity patterns: perturbation analysis for species with minimal demographic data. Ecology 81:654-665.
32. Jorgenson, J. T., M. Festa-Bianchet, J. M. Gaillard, and W. D. Wishart. 1997. Effects of age, sex, disease, and density on survival of bighorn sheep. Ecology 78:1019-1032.
33. Kareiva, P. 1990. Population-dynamics in spatially complex environments: theory and data. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B 330:175-190.
34. Lebreton, J. D., K. P. Burnham, J. Clobert, and D. R. Anderson. 1992. Modeling survival and testing biological hypotheses using marked animals: a unified approach with case studies. Ecological Monographs 62:67-118.
35. Lebreton, J. D., R. Pradel, and J. Clobert. 1993. The statistical analysis of survival in animal populations. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 8:91-95.
36. Lenihan, C., and D. VanVuren. 1996. Costs and benefits of sociality in yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris): Do noncolonial females have lower fitness? Ethology, Ecology and Evolution 8:177-189.
37. Nichols, J. D., and J. E. Hines. 2002. Approaches for the direct estimation of λ, and demographic contributions to λ, using capture-recapture data. Journal of Applied Statistics 29:539-568.
38. Nichols, J. D., T. S. Sillett, J. E. Hines, and R. T. Holmes. 2003. Approaches for the direct estimation of rate of increase in population size (λ) using capture-recapture data. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report PSW-GTR-191.
39. Oli, M. K., and K. B. Armitage. 2004. Yellow-bellied marmot population dynamics: demographic mechanisms of growth and decline. Ecology 85:2446-2455.
40. Oli, M. K., and F. S. Dobson. 2003. The relative importance of life-history variables to population growth rate in mammals: Cole's prediction revisited. American Naturalist 161:422-440.
41. Orzack, S. H., and S. Tuljapurkar. 1989. Population dynamics in variable environments: 7. The demography and evolution of iteroparity. American Naturalist 133:901-923.
42. Pfister, C. A. 1998. Patterns of variance in stage-structured populations: evolutionary predictions and ecological implications. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA) 95:213-218.
43. Portier, C., M. Festa-Bianchet, J. M. Gaillard, J. T. Jorgenson, and N. G. Yoccoz. 1998. Effects of density and weather on survival of bighorn sheep lambs (Ovis canadensis). Journal of Zoology 245:271-278.
44. Post, E., N. C. Stenseth, R. Langvatn, and J. M. Fromentin. 1997. Global climate change and phenotypic variation among red deer cohorts. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B 264:1317-1324.
45. Pradel, R. 1996. Utilization of capture-mark-recapture for the study of recruitment and population growth rate. Biometrics 52:703-709.
46. Pulliam, H. R., and B. J. Danielson. 1991. Sources, sinks, and habitat selection: a landscape perspective on population dynamics. American Naturalist 137:S50-S66.
47. Ringsby, T. H., B. E. Sæther, R. Altwegg, and E. J. Solberg. 1999. Temporal and spatial variation in survival rates of a house sparrow, Passer domesticus, metapopulation. Oikos 85: 419-425.
48. Sæther, B. E. 1997. Environmental stochasticity and population dynamics of large herbivores: A search for mechanisms. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 12:143-149.
49. Sæther, B. E., and O. Bakke. 2000. Avian life history variation and contribution of demographic traits to the population growth rate. Ecology 81:642-653.
50. Sæther, B. E., T. H. Ringsby, O. Bakke, and E. J. Solberg. 1999. Spatial and temporal variation in demography of a house sparrow metapopulation. Journal of Animal Ecology 68:628-637.
51. Schwartz, O. A., and K. B. Armitage. 2005. Weather influences on demography of the yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventris). Journal of Zoology 265:73-79.
52. Schwartz, O. A., K. B. Armitage, and D. Van Vuren. 1998. A 32-year demography of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris). Journal of Zoology 246:337-346.
53. Stearns, S. 1992. Evolution of life histories. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
54. Svendsen, G. E. 1974. Behavioral and environmental factors in spatial distribution and population dynamics of a yellow-bellied marmot population. Ecology 55:760-771.
55. Tilman, D., and P. Kareiva. 1997. Spatial Ecology. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
56. Tuljapurkar, S. D. 1990. Population dynamics in variable environments. Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA.
57. Van Vuren, D. 1990. Dispersal of yellow-bellied marmots. Dissertation. University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, USA.
58. Van Vuren, D. H. 2001. Predation on yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris). American Midland Naturalist 145:94-100.
59. Van Vuren, D. H., and K. B. Armitage. 1991. Duration of snow cover and its influence on life-history variation in yellow-bellied marmots. Canadian Journal of Zoology 69:1755-1758.
60. Van Vuren, D., and K. B. Armitage. 1994. Survival of dispersing and philopatric yellow-bellied marmots: what is the cost of dispersal? Oikos 69:179-181.
61. Waser, P. M., L. F. Elliott, N. M. Creel, and S. R. Creel. 1995. Habitat variation and mongoose demography. Pages 421-450 in A. R. E. Sinclear and P. Arcese, editors. Serengeti II: dynamics, management and conservation of an ecosystem. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
62. White, G. C., and K. P. Burnham. 1999. Program MARK: survival estimation from populations of marked animals. Bird Study 46:120-139.
63. Williams, B. K., J. D. Nichols, and M. J. Conroy. 2001. Analysis and management of animal populations. Academic Press, San Diego, California, USA.
64. Zammuto, R. M., and J. S. Millar. 1985. Environmental predictability, variability, and Spermophilus columbianus life history over an elevational gradient. Ecology 66:1784-1794.