메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 132, Issue 1, 2006, Pages 281-303

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity

Author keywords

Business cycle; Canonical correlation; Coincident and leading indicators; Encompassing; Instrumental variable probit

Indexed keywords

INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS; INFORMATION THEORY; MATHEMATICAL MODELS;

EID: 33646151418     PISSN: 03044076     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2005.01.031     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (17)

References (36)
  • 1
    • 77956828132 scopus 로고
    • Canonical correlation analysis of time series and the use of an information criterion
    • Mehra R.K., and Lainiotis D.G. (Eds), Academic Press, New York
    • Akaike H. Canonical correlation analysis of time series and the use of an information criterion. In: Mehra R.K., and Lainiotis D.G. (Eds). System Identification. Advances and Case Studies (1976), Academic Press, New York 27-96
    • (1976) System Identification. Advances and Case Studies , pp. 27-96
    • Akaike, H.1
  • 2
    • 0031523523 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Transaction costs and nonlinear adjustment towards equilibrium in the US treasury bill market
    • Anderson H.M. Transaction costs and nonlinear adjustment towards equilibrium in the US treasury bill market. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 59 (1997) 465-484
    • (1997) Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics , vol.59 , pp. 465-484
    • Anderson, H.M.1
  • 3
    • 0039812834 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Testing multiple equation systems for common nonlinear factors
    • Anderson H.M., and Vahid F. Testing multiple equation systems for common nonlinear factors. Journal of Econometrics 84 (1998) 1-37
    • (1998) Journal of Econometrics , vol.84 , pp. 1-37
    • Anderson, H.M.1    Vahid, F.2
  • 9
    • 0012396692 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An econometric characterization of business cycle dynamics with factor structure and regime switching
    • Chauvet M. An econometric characterization of business cycle dynamics with factor structure and regime switching. International Economic Review 39 (1998) 969-996
    • (1998) International Economic Review , vol.39 , pp. 969-996
    • Chauvet, M.1
  • 11
    • 0001832044 scopus 로고
    • Estimating sectoral cycles using cointegration and common features
    • Engle R.F., and Issler J.V. Estimating sectoral cycles using cointegration and common features. Journal of Monetary Economics 35 (1995) 83-113
    • (1995) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.35 , pp. 83-113
    • Engle, R.F.1    Issler, J.V.2
  • 13
    • 0039066423 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting U.S. recessions. financial variables as leading indicators
    • Estrella A., and Mishkin F.S. Predicting U.S. recessions. financial variables as leading indicators. Review of Economics and Statistics 80 (1998) 45-61
    • (1998) Review of Economics and Statistics , vol.80 , pp. 45-61
    • Estrella, A.1    Mishkin, F.S.2
  • 14
    • 0002931014 scopus 로고
    • The dynamic factor analysis of economic time series
    • Aigner D.J., and Goldberger A.S. (Eds), North-Holland, Amsterdam
    • Geweke J. The dynamic factor analysis of economic time series. In: Aigner D.J., and Goldberger A.S. (Eds). Latent Variables in Socio-Economic Models (1977), North-Holland, Amsterdam
    • (1977) Latent Variables in Socio-Economic Models
    • Geweke, J.1
  • 15
    • 33646137192 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hall, R., Feldstein, M., Bernanke, B., Frankel, J., Gordon, J., Zarnowitz, V., 2002. The NBER's business-cycle dating procedure. downloadable from http://www.nber.org/cycles/november2001/recessions.pdf.
  • 16
    • 0001342006 scopus 로고
    • A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle
    • Hamilton J.D. A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57 (1989) 357-384
    • (1989) Econometrica , vol.57 , pp. 357-384
    • Hamilton, J.D.1
  • 17
    • 0034400139 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Permanent-transitory decomposition in VAR models with cointegration and common cycles
    • Hecq A., Palm F., and Urbain J.P. Permanent-transitory decomposition in VAR models with cointegration and common cycles. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 62 (2000) 511-532
    • (2000) Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics , vol.62 , pp. 511-532
    • Hecq, A.1    Palm, F.2    Urbain, J.P.3
  • 19
    • 0000107975 scopus 로고
    • Relations between two sets of variates
    • Hotelling H. Relations between two sets of variates. Biometrika 28 (1936) 321-377
    • (1936) Biometrika , vol.28 , pp. 321-377
    • Hotelling, H.1
  • 20
    • 0042409514 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Common cycles and the importance of transitory shocks to macroeconomic aggregates
    • Issler J.V., and Vahid F. Common cycles and the importance of transitory shocks to macroeconomic aggregates. Journal of Monetary Economics 47 (2001) 449-475
    • (2001) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.47 , pp. 449-475
    • Issler, J.V.1    Vahid, F.2
  • 22
    • 0003249375 scopus 로고
    • The encompassing approach in econometrics
    • Hendry D.F., and Wallis K.F. (Eds), Blackwell, Oxford (Chapter 6)
    • Mizon G.E. The encompassing approach in econometrics. In: Hendry D.F., and Wallis K.F. (Eds). Econometrics and Quantitative Economics (1984), Blackwell, Oxford (Chapter 6)
    • (1984) Econometrics and Quantitative Economics
    • Mizon, G.E.1
  • 23
    • 0000706085 scopus 로고
    • A simple positive semi-definite heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix
    • Newey W., and West K. A simple positive semi-definite heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix. Econometrica 55 (1987) 703-708
    • (1987) Econometrica , vol.55 , pp. 703-708
    • Newey, W.1    West, K.2
  • 24
    • 45449123614 scopus 로고
    • Limited information estimators and exogeneity tests for simultaneous probit models
    • Rivers D., and Vuong Q.H. Limited information estimators and exogeneity tests for simultaneous probit models. Journal of Econometrics 39 (1988) 347-366
    • (1988) Journal of Econometrics , vol.39 , pp. 347-366
    • Rivers, D.1    Vuong, Q.H.2
  • 25
    • 33646147875 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stock, J., Watson, M., 1988a. A new approach to leading economic indicators. Mimeo, Harvard University, Kennedy School of Government.
  • 26
    • 33646121337 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stock, J., Watson, M., 1988b. A probability model of the coincident economic indicator. NBER Working Paper no. 2772.
  • 27
    • 33646157797 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stock, J., Watson, M., 1989. New indexes of leading and coincident economic indicators. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 351-395.
  • 28
    • 0003153605 scopus 로고
    • A probability model of the coincident economic indicators
    • Lahiri K., and Moore G. (Eds), Cambridge University Press, New York
    • Stock J., and Watson M. A probability model of the coincident economic indicators. In: Lahiri K., and Moore G. (Eds). Leading Economic Indicators. New approaches and Forecasting Records (1991), Cambridge University Press, New York
    • (1991) Leading Economic Indicators. New approaches and Forecasting Records
    • Stock, J.1    Watson, M.2
  • 29
    • 0002669343 scopus 로고
    • A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators. Econometric issues and recent experiences
    • Stock J.H., and Watson M.W. (Eds), University of Chicago Press, Chicago
    • Stock J., and Watson M. A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators. Econometric issues and recent experiences. In: Stock J.H., and Watson M.W. (Eds). New Research on Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting (1993), University of Chicago Press, Chicago
    • (1993) New Research on Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting
    • Stock, J.1    Watson, M.2
  • 31
    • 33646146541 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Conference Board, 1997. Business cycle indicators. Downloadable from http://www.tcb-indicators.org/bcioverview/bci4.pdf.
  • 34
    • 0028595842 scopus 로고
    • Business-cycle durations and postwar stabilization of the U.S. economy
    • Watson M. Business-cycle durations and postwar stabilization of the U.S. economy. American Economic Review 84 (1994) 24-46
    • (1994) American Economic Review , vol.84 , pp. 24-46
    • Watson, M.1
  • 35
    • 70350103507 scopus 로고
    • Estimation and inference for dependent processes
    • Engle R.F., and McFadden D.L. (Eds), North-Holland, Amsterdam
    • Wooldridge J.M. Estimation and inference for dependent processes. In: Engle R.F., and McFadden D.L. (Eds). Handbook of Econometrics, vol. 4 (1994), North-Holland, Amsterdam 2639-2738
    • (1994) Handbook of Econometrics, vol. 4 , pp. 2639-2738
    • Wooldridge, J.M.1
  • 36
    • 0039025639 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting turning points in countries' output growth rates
    • Zellner A., and Min C. Forecasting turning points in countries' output growth rates. Journal of Econometrics 88 (1999) 203-206
    • (1999) Journal of Econometrics , vol.88 , pp. 203-206
    • Zellner, A.1    Min, C.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.