Dying with eyes open or closed: The debate over a Chinese aircraft carrier

Korean Journal of Defense Analysis

Volumn 18, Issue 1, 2006, Pages 35-58

  Diamond, Andrew F ^a  

^a NONE

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[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 33645512424     PISSN: 10163271     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/10163270609464098     Document Type: Review

References (134)

1. "Suspicions About Use of Varyag Aircraft Carrier," Kanwa Defense Review, Sept. 1, 2005, FBIS ID: CPP20050910000038;
2. "Chinese Navy Reportedly to Convert Varyag Into Training Target," Moscow Vremya Novostey, Oct. 18, 2005, FBIS ID: CEP20051018949008;
3. Sofia Wu, "China Developing Aircraft Carrier Battle Group: MND," China News Agency (Taiwan), Jan. 19, 2006, available at http://www.cna.com.tw/eng/cepread.php?id=200601190044;
4. "Kanwa Defense Review: Chinese Navy Repairing Unfinished Aircraft Carrier Varyag," Zhongguo Tongxun She, Aug. 16, 2005, FBIS ID: CPP20050816000161;
5. David Lague, "An Aircraft Carrier for China?" International Herald Tribune, Jan. 31, 2006, available at http://mobile.iht.com/articles/2006/ 01/30/business/carrier.xhtml.
6. For example, see You Ji, "The Debate over China's Aircraft Carrier Program," China Brief, Vol. V, Issue 4 (Feb. 15, 2005), available at http://www.jamestown.org/images/pdf/cb_005_004.pdf;
7. Ian Storey and You Ji, "China's Aircraft Carrier Ambitions: Seeking Truth from Rumors," Naval War College Review (Winter 2004), available at http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/Review/2004/Winter/art6-w04.htm;
8. Yihong Chang and Andrew Koch, "Is China Building a Carrier?" Jane's Defence Weekly, Aug. 17, 2005.
9. Lin Chuan, "Why Does China Still Have no Aircraft Carrier?" Zhongguo Tongxun She, June 26, 2005, FBIS ID: CPP2005062600004.
10. David Shambaugh, Modernizing China's Military: Progress, Problems, and Prospects (Berkeley: UC-Berkeley Press, 2002), p. 271.
11. Robert S. Ross, "Assessing the China Threat," National Interest (Fall 2005), in LexisNexis.
12. Bernard D. Cole, The Great Wall at Sea: China's Navy Enters the Twenty-First Century (Annapolis, Maryland: Naval Institute Press, 2001), p. 108.
13. China's recent focus on defeating aircraft carriers is highlighted by the July 2004 appointment of two officers with strong backgrounds in anti-aircraft carrier warfare to the position of deputy chiefs of staff of the PLA's General Staff Department. See, Ching Cheong, "China Revamps Top Military Command," Straits Times, Aug. 10, 2004, in LexisNexis.
14. U.S. Department of Defense, Annual Report to Congress on the Military Power of the People's Republic of China, July 2005, p. 33, available at http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Jul2005/d20050719china.pdf.
15. See also Ronald O'Rourke, "China's Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities-Background and Issues for Congress," CRS Report for Congress, Nov. 18, 2005, available at http://fpc.state.gov/documents/ organization/57462.pdf.
16. Ian Storey and You Ji, "Chinese Aspirations to Acquire Aircraft-carrier Capability Stall," Jane's Intelligence Review, April 1, 2002.
17. You Ji, The Evolution of China's Maritime Combat Doctrines and Models: 1949-2001, Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies Working Paper No. 22 (May 2002), pp. 32-33, available at http://www.ntu.edu.sg/idss/publications/ WorkingPapers/Wp22.pdf.
18. Other prominent proponents include former Deputy Commander of the PLAN Vice-Admiral Zhang Xusan, and former Commander of the PLAN Admiral Shi Yunsheng, among others. See, Jianchuan Zhishi, "PRC Navy Former Deputy Commander Says China Will Possess Aircraft Carrier," July 11, 2005, FBIS ID: CPP20050713000187;
19. and Chung Chien, "Breaking Through the Encirclement: Chinese Communists Research the Building of Aircraft Carriers," Taipei Chien-Tuan K'o-Chi, July 1, 2003, FBIS ID: CPP20030827000279.
20. See also Andrew Pinkov, "The Chinese Navy and Russian Aircraft Carriers," Kanwa Intelligence Review (Nov. 7, 1998), available at http://www.kanwa.com/english/981107c.html.
21. Quoted in You Ji, The Armed Forces of China (London: L.B. Tauris and Company, 1999), p. 198.
22. Storey and You, "China's Aircraft Carrier Ambitions."
23. Cole, The Great Wall at Sea, p. 108.
24. Vijay Sakhuja, "Dragon's Dragonfly/' Strategic Analysis, Vol. XXIV, No. 7 (October 2000), available at http://www.idsa-india.org/SAARCHIVES/ SA200010/AN-OCT-00-10.HTML.
25. Vijay Sakhuja, "Dragon's Dragonfly/' Strategic Analysis, Vol. XXIV, No. 7 Ibid.
26. "Suspicions About Use of Varyag Aircraft Carrier," Kanwa Defense Review, Sept. 1, 2005;
27. "Chinese Navy Reportedly to Convert Varyag Into Training Target," Moscow Vremya Novostey, Oct. 18, 2005.
28. Storey and You, "China's Aircraft Carrier Ambitions";
29. Chang and Koch, "Is China Building a Carrier?" Aug. 17, 2005;
30. and Cole, The Great Wall at Sea, p. 108.
31. Richard D. Fisher, Jr., "China's Carrier of Chance," China Brief, Vol. 2, Issue 6 (March 14, 2002), available at http://www.jamestown.org/ publications_details.php?volume_id=18&issue_id=646&art.icle_id=4621;
32. Edward Lanfranco, "Analysis: China's Aircraft Carrier Gamble," United Press International, June 17, 2005, available at http://www.wpherald.com/ print.php?StoryID=20050617-114153-3564r;
33. and Vijay Sakhuja, "Dragon's Dragonfly," October 2000.
34. Chang and Koch, "Is China Building a Carrier?";
35. Storey and You, "China's Aircraft Carrier Ambitions."
36. Cole, The Great Wall at Sea, p. 108.
37. Lague, "An Aircraft for China?";
38. Chang and Koch, "Is China Building a Carrier?";
39. "Kanwa Defense Review" Zhongguo Tongxun She. Supposed satellite photos of the Varyag in Dalian are available at http://www.varyagworld.com/ dalian.html.
40. Wu, "China Developing Aircraft Carrier Battle Group: MND."
41. Fisher, "China's Carrier of Chance";
42. Lague, "An Aircraft for China?";
43. and Lanfranco, "Analysis: China's Aircraft Carrier Gamble."
44. "Chinese Navy Repairing Unfinished Aircraft Carrier Varyag" Zhongguo Tongxun She;
45. Chang and Koch, "Is China Building a Carrier?"
46. State Council Information Office, People's Republic of China, White Paper: China's National Defense in 2004 (Dec. 27, 2004), available at http://www.china.org.cn/e-white/20041227/.
47. For more on the Chinese RMA, see You Ji, "Learning and Catching Up: China's RMA Initiative," Joint Center for International and Security Studies, available at http://jciss.llnl.gov/IT_RMA/You_Ji_Final.pdf (accessed on Jan. 25, 2006);
48. Michael Pillsbury, China Debates the Future Security Environment (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 2000).
49. Jiang Shangzhou, "Challenges Facing China's Navy, Part II," Ching Pao, Feb. 1, 2002, FBIS ID: CPP20020131000065.
50. Quoted in Sakhuja, "Dragon's Dragonfly."
51. Xiao Jing, "Chinese Folks Call On Government To Quickly Build Aircraft Carrier," Lianhe Zaobao, Aug. 31, 2004, FBIS ID: CPP20040831000048.
52. Quoted in Sakhuja, "Dragon's Dragonfly."
53. Shambaugh, Modernizing China's Military, p. 270.
54. Annual Report to Congress on the Military Power of the People's Republic of China, pp. 33-34.
55. You, The Armed Forces of China, p. 197;
56. You Ji and You Xu, "Blue Water Power," Pacific Review, Vol. 4, No. 2 (1991), p. 145.
57. You, The Evolution of China's Maritime Combat Doctrines and Models, pp. 11, 20.
58. "PLA Air Force Strengthens Air Refueling, Makes 'Breakthrough' in Long-Range Combat," Zhongguo Tongxun She, Sept. 14, 2005, FBIS ID: CPP20050914000232;
59. Lyle Goldstein and William Murray, "Undersea Dragons; China's Maturing Submarine Force," International Security, Vol. 28, No. 4 (Spring 2004), in LexisNexis.
60. Zhang Zhiben, "China Needs Sea Power," Junshi Shilin (April 1990), p. 63.
61. You, The Armed Forces of China, p. 197.
62. Jiang, "Challenges Facing China's Navy, Part II."
63. Cole, The Great Wall at Sea, pp. 146-47.
64. Mikkal E. Herberg, "The Emergence of China Throughout Asia: Security and Economic Consequences for the U.S.," Testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs, June 7, 2005, available at http://www.senate.gov/~foreign/testimony/2005/ HerbergTestimony050607.pdf.
65. Annual Report to Congress on the Military Power of the People's Republic of China, July 2005, pp. 10, 33-34.
66. For insight into ways China is seeking to strategically address this issue, see Tarique Niazi, "Gwadar: China's Naval Outpost on the Indian Ocean," China Brief, Vol. V, Issue 4 (Feb. 15, 2005), available at http://www.jamestown.org/publications_details.php?volume_id=408&issue_id= 3232&art.icle_id=2369262;
67. Hideaki Kaneda, "The Rise of Chinese 'Sea Power,'" Philippine Daily Inquirer, Sept. 22, 2005, in LexisNexis;
68. and Lee Jae-Hyung, "China's Expanding Maritime Ambitions in the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean," Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 24, No. 3 (December 2002).
69. Herberg, "The Emergence of China Throughout Asia."
70. Wenran Jiang, "China's Quest for Energy Security," China Brief, Vol. 4, Issue 20 (Oct. 14, 2004), available at http://www.jamestown.org/ publications_details.php?volume_id=395&issue_id=3108&article_id=2368692.
71. Herberg, "The Emergence of China Throughout Asia."
72. Ji Guoxing, "SLOC Security in the Asia Pacific," Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies Occasional Paper (February 2000), available at http://www.apcss.org/Publications/Ocasional%20Papers/OPSloc.htm.
73. Bernard D. Cole, "Waterways and Strategy: China's Priorities," China Brief, Vol. V, Issue 4 (Feb. 15, 2005), available at http://www.jamestown. org/publications_details.php?volume_id=408&issue_id=3232&article_id= 2369260.
74. Chung, "Breaking Through the Encirclement: Chinese Communists Research the Building of Aircraft Carriers."
75. Feng Huang Wei Shih Chung Wen Tai, "HK Phoenix TV Airs Debate on PRC's Need to Build Aircraft Carriers," Sept. 28, 2005, FBIS ID: CPP20050930507001;
76. and Chung, "Breaking Through the Encirclement: Chinese Communists Research the Building of Aircraft Carriers."
77. For an informative look at China's energy security dilemma, see Erica S. Downs, "The Chinese Energy Security Debate," China Quarterly, No. 177 (March 2004).
78. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA), "Country Analysis Briefs: South China Sea Region," September 2003, available at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/schina.html.
79. You, The Armed forces of China, p. 196.
80. "Chinese Naval Ship Formation's First Global Navigation, "People's Daily, Sept. 28, 2002, available at http://english.people.com.cn/ 200209/28/eng20020928_104085.shtml.
81. John Hill, "China's Naval Development Focuses on Taiwan," Jane's Intelligence Review, June 1, 2003.
82. Chung, "Breaking Through the Encirclement";
83. Xiao Jing, "Chinese Folks Call On Government To Quickly Build Aircraft Carrier," Lianhe Zaobao, Aug. 31, 2004, FBIS ID: CPP20040831000048.
84. Tai Ming Cheung, "Chinese Defense Industrial Reform and the Navy," China Brief, Vol. V, Issue 4 (Feb. 15, 2005), available at http://www.jamestown.org/ publications_details.php?volume_id=408&issue_id= 3232&article_id=2369261.
85. Bill Savadove, "Shipyard Denies Plan to Build Aircraft Carrier," South China Morning Post, July 1, 2005, in LexisNexis.
86. You, The Armed Forces of China, p. 197.
87. Sakhuja, "Dragon's Dragonfly";
88. Ross, "Assessing the China Threat";
89. Thom Shanker and David E. Sanger, "U.S. Lawmakers Warn Europe on Arms Sales to China," New York Times, March 2, 2005, p. A10 in LexisNexis;
90. Storey and You, "China's Aircraft Carrier Ambitions."
91. Bill Gertz, "Defense Contractor Held in Spy Case," Washington Times, Nov. 30, 2005, p. 4, available at http://www.washtimes.com/national/ 20051129-102531-9297r.htm.
92. Ross, "Assessing the China Threat."
93. This point is also raised by a Taiwanese defense official, quoted in Brian Hsu, "Taiwan 'Keeping Close Eye' on PRC Aircraft Carrier," Taipei Times, Oct. 21, 2001, FBIS ID: CPP20011029000165.
94. Lin, "Why Does China Still Have no Aircraft Carrier";
95. Storey and You, "China's Aircraft Carrier Ambitions."
96. You, The Evolution of China's Maritime Combat Doctrines and Models, p. 30;
97. John Hill, "China's Military Modernisation Takes Shape," Jane's Intelligence Review, Feb. 1, 2004.
98. Lin, "Why Does China Still Have no Aircraft Carrier?"
99. Ehsan Ahrari, "China's Naval Forces Look to Extend their Blue-water Reach," Jane's Intelligence Review, April 1, 1998;
100. Li Heng, "Why China Chooses Not to Build Aircraft Carrier?" People's Daily, Dec. 6, 2002, FBIS ID: CPP20021206000055.
101. Shambaugh, Modernizing China's Military, p. 271.
102. Storey and You, "China's Aircraft Carrier Ambitions."
103. Li, "Why China Chooses Not to Build Aircraft Carrier?"
104. You, The Armed Forces of China, p. 198;
105. and Sakhuja, "Dragon's Dragonfly."
106. You, The Armed Forces of China, p. 198.
107. Lague, "An Aircraft Carrier for China?"
108. The State Council-issued China's National Defense in 2004 lists China's 2004 defense budget as "211.701 billion yuan."
109. Outside estimates include: Keith Crane, et al., Modernizing China's Military: Opportunities and Constraints (Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2005), available at http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2005/RAND_MG260-1.pdf;
110. Office of the Secretary of Defense, Proliferation: Threat and Response, January 2001, p. 13, available at http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/ptr20010110. pdf;
111. and U.S. Department of Defense, Annual Report to Congress on the Military Power of the People's Republic of China, July 2005.
112. Storey and You, "China's Aircraft Carrier Ambitions."
113. Quoted in Zhang Wen, "China's Building Aircraft Carrier Attracts Attention," Zhongguo Xinwen She, Nov. 30, 1999, FBIS ID: FTS19991203001700.
114. See also Ge Shubin, "Further Discussion on 'Trend of Aircraft Carriers '- Interview with Zhang Zhaozhong, Associate Research Fellow at the Naval Equipment Proving Research Center," Bingqi Zhishi (October 1996), No. 10, pp. 2-5, FBIS ID: FTS19970728002118.
115. Capt. Brad Kaplan, "China's Navy Today: Storm Clouds on the Horizon...or Paper Tiger," Seapower, December 1999, available at http://www.navyleague.org/seapower/chinas_navy_today.htm.
116. Storey and You, "Chinese Aspirations to Acquire Aircraft-carrier Capability Stall."
117. Bernard D. Cole, "The Naval Component of the Chinese Defense Budget," Testimony before the U.S.-China Security Review Commission, Dec. 7, 2001, available at http://www.uscc.gov/textonly/transcriptstx/tescol.htm;
118. and Greg Austin, China's Ocean Frontier (Canberra: Allen & Unwin, 1998), p. 284.
119. Chang and Koch, "Is China Building a Carrier?"
120. Cole, "The Naval Component of the Chinese Defense Budget."
121. Storey and You, "Chinese Aspirations to Acquire Aircraft-carrier Capability Stall."
122. You, "The Debate over China's Aircraft Carrier Program."
123. Cole, "The Naval Component of the Chinese Defense Budget";
124. See also Cole, The Great Wall at Sea, p. 149.
125. You, "The Debate over China's Aircraft Carrier Program."
126. Nations claiming whole ownership of the Spratly Islands are China, Taiwan, and Vietnam. Nations claiming partial ownership of the Spratly Islands are Brunei, Malaysia, and the Philippines. See, Storey and You, "China's Aircraft Carrier Ambitions."
127. Lin, "Why Does China Still Have no Aircraft Carrier?"
128. Storey and You, "China's Aircraft Carrier Ambitions."
129. You, The Armed Forces of China, p. 197.
130. Sakhuja, "Dragon's Dragonfly."
131. Ironically, the official paper of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee, People's Daily, carried a comment on South Korea's launching of its light aircraft carrier, the Dokdo, saying that it "injects new factors into the Northeast Asian security pattern, so it naturally arouses universal concern from the international community."
132. See, "S. Korea Builds 'Independent National Defense': Comment," People's Daily, July 25, 2005, FBIS ID: CPP20050725000185.
133. Li, "Why China Chooses Not to Build Aircraft Carrier?"
134. Lin Limin, "Aircraft Carrier: I Don't Dare Say I Treasure You," Beijing Shijie Zhishi, Sept. 16, 2005, FBIS ID: CPP20051006329003.