메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 6, Issue 1, 1999, Pages 31-59

Explanations of an empirical puzzle: What can be learnt from a test of the rational expectations hypothesis?

Author keywords

Cointegration; Empirical relevance; Explanation; Rational expectations hypothesis; Statistical adequacy; Term structure; Theory data confrontations; Valid inference

Indexed keywords


EID: 33644902502     PISSN: 1350178X     EISSN: 14699427     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/13501789900000002     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (1)

References (36)
  • 1
    • 0039223103 scopus 로고
    • Monetary policy reaction functions, consistent expectations, and the Burns era
    • Abrams, R. K., Froyen, R., and Waud, R. N., 1980. Monetary policy reaction functions, consistent expectations, and the Burns era. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 12: 30–41.
    • (1980) Journal of Money, Credit and Banking , vol.12 , pp. 30-41
    • Abrams, R.K.1    Froyen, R.2    Waud, R.N.3
  • 6
    • 84959821636 scopus 로고
    • Yield spreads and interest rate movements: a bird's eye view
    • Campbell, J. Y., and Shiller, R. J., 1991. Yield spreads and interest rate movements: a bird's eye view. The Review of Economic Studies, 58: 495–514.
    • (1991) The Review of Economic Studies , vol.58 , pp. 495-514
    • Campbell, J.Y.1    Shiller, R.J.2
  • 7
    • 0001205798 scopus 로고
    • A theory of the term structure of interest rates
    • Cox, J. C., Ingersoll, J. E., and Ross, S. A., 1985. A theory of the term structure of interest rates. Econometrica, 53: 385–407.
    • (1985) Econometrica , vol.53 , pp. 385-407
    • Cox, J.C.1    Ingersoll, J.E.2    Ross, S.A.3
  • 8
    • 0001368110 scopus 로고
    • The Duhem-Quine thesis, Lakatos and the appraisal of theories in macroeconomics
    • Cross, R., 1982. The Duhem-Quine thesis, Lakatos and the appraisal of theories in macroeconomics. The Economic Journal, 92: 320–340.
    • (1982) The Economic Journal , vol.92 , pp. 320-340
    • Cross, R.1
  • 9
    • 0000013567 scopus 로고
    • Cointegration and error correction representation, estimation, and testing
    • Engle, R. F., and Granger, C. W. J., 1987. Cointegration and error correction representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55: 251–276.
    • (1987) Econometrica , vol.55 , pp. 251-276
    • Engle, R.F.1    Granger, C.W.J.2
  • 10
    • 0000051984 scopus 로고
    • Estimating time varying risk premia in the term structure: the ARCH-M model
    • Engle, R. F., Lilien, D. M., and Robins, R. P., 1987. Estimating time varying risk premia in the term structure: the ARCH-M model. Econometrica, 55: 391–407.
    • (1987) Econometrica , vol.55 , pp. 391-407
    • Engle, R.F.1    Lilien, D.M.2    Robins, R.P.3
  • 12
    • 0002556498 scopus 로고
    • The probability approach in econometrics
    • Supplement
    • Haavelmo, T., 1944. The probability approach in econometrics. Econometrica, 12: 1–115. (Supplement)
    • (1944) Econometrica , vol.12 , pp. 1-115
    • Haavelmo, T.1
  • 14
    • 43949152349 scopus 로고
    • The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries. Is there a puzzle?
    • Hardouvelis, G. A., 1994. The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries. Is there a puzzle?. Journal of Monetary Economics, 33: 255–283.
    • (1994) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.33 , pp. 255-283
    • Hardouvelis, G.A.1
  • 15
    • 0039169215 scopus 로고
    • Supply and demand explanations and their ceteris paribus clauses
    • Hausman, D. M., 1990. Supply and demand explanations and their ceteris paribus clauses. Review of Political Economy, 2 (2): 168–187.
    • (1990) Review of Political Economy , vol.2 , Issue.2 , pp. 168-187
    • Hausman, D.M.1
  • 19
    • 0000479029 scopus 로고
    • A micro model of the Federal Funds Market
    • Ho, T. Y., and Saunders, A., 1985. A micro model of the Federal Funds Market. The Journal of Finance, 40 (3): 977–988.
    • (1985) The Journal of Finance , vol.40 , Issue.3 , pp. 977-988
    • Ho, T.Y.1    Saunders, A.2
  • 21
    • 84981579311 scopus 로고
    • Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration - with applications to the demand for money
    • Johansen, S., and Juselius, K., 1990. Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration - with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52: 169–210.
    • (1990) Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics , vol.52 , pp. 169-210
    • Johansen, S.1    Juselius, K.2
  • 22
    • 0003244873 scopus 로고
    • Modeling the Fed: a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function
    • November
    • McNees, S. K., 1986. Modeling the Fed: a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function. New England Economic Review, November: 3–8.
    • (1986) New England Economic Review , pp. 3-8
    • McNees, S.K.1
  • 23
    • 84993845578 scopus 로고
    • Three econometric methodologies: a critical appraisal
    • Pagan, A. R., 1987. Three econometric methodologies: a critical appraisal. The Journal of Economic Surveys, 1: 3–24.
    • (1987) The Journal of Economic Surveys , vol.1 , pp. 3-24
    • Pagan, A.R.1
  • 26
    • 58149362804 scopus 로고
    • Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations and the term structure
    • Rudebusch, G. D., 1995. Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations and the term structure. Journal of Monetary Economics, 35: 245–276.
    • (1995) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.35 , pp. 245-276
    • Rudebusch, G.D.1
  • 27
    • 49249142839 scopus 로고
    • A note on the maximum likelihood estimation of the rational expectations model of the term structure
    • Sargent, T. J., 1979. A note on the maximum likelihood estimation of the rational expectations model of the term structure. Journal of Monetary Economics, 5: 133–143.
    • (1979) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.5 , pp. 133-143
    • Sargent, T.J.1
  • 28
    • 0000116204 scopus 로고
    • Benchmarking the expectations hypothesis of the interest rate term structure: an analysis of cointegration vectors
    • Shea, G. S., 1992. Benchmarking the expectations hypothesis of the interest rate term structure: an analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10: 347–366.
    • (1992) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , vol.10 , pp. 347-366
    • Shea, G.S.1
  • 29
    • 84977722812 scopus 로고
    • Expectations and the Treasury Bill-Federal Funds rate spread over recent monetary policy regimes
    • Simon, D. P., 1990. Expectations and the Treasury Bill-Federal Funds rate spread over recent monetary policy regimes. The Journal of Finance, 45 (2): 567–577.
    • (1990) The Journal of Finance , vol.45 , Issue.2 , pp. 567-577
    • Simon, D.P.1
  • 30
    • 0000997472 scopus 로고
    • Macroeconomics and reality
    • Sims, C., 1980. Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica, 48: 1–48.
    • (1980) Econometrica , vol.48 , pp. 1-48
    • Sims, C.1
  • 31
    • 0001463165 scopus 로고
    • On theory testing in econometrics: modeling with non-experimental data
    • Spanos, A., 1995. On theory testing in econometrics: modeling with non-experimental data. Journal of Econometrics, 67 (l): 189–226.
    • (1995) Journal of Econometrics , vol.67 , Issue.1 , pp. 189-226
    • Spanos, A.1
  • 32
    • 84974195348 scopus 로고
    • Hypothesis testing, scientific explanation and prediction in economics
    • Montréal: Université du Québec Montréal,. In
    • Stigum, B., 1993. “ Hypothesis testing, scientific explanation and prediction in economics ”. In Cahiers d’épistémologie, Montréal: Université du Québeca Montréal.
    • (1993) Cahiers d’épistémologie
    • Stigum, B.1
  • 34
    • 0004182632 scopus 로고
    • 3rd, Illinois: Dow Jones-Irwin
    • Stigum, M., 1990. The Money Market, 3rd, Illinois: Dow Jones-Irwin.
    • (1990) The Money Market
    • Stigum, M.1
  • 35
    • 0031495752 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Explaining the failures of the term spread models of the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure
    • Tzavalis, E., and Wickens, M. R., 1997. Explaining the failures of the term spread models of the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29: 364–380.
    • (1997) Journal of Money, Credit and Banking , vol.29 , pp. 364-380
    • Tzavalis, E.1    Wickens, M.R.2
  • 36
    • 77953947492 scopus 로고
    • Treasury yield curves and cointegration
    • Zhang, H., 1993. Treasury yield curves and cointegration. Applied Economics, 25: 361–367.
    • (1993) Applied Economics , vol.25 , pp. 361-367
    • Zhang, H.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.