Statistical screening of system dynamics models

System Dynamics Review

Volumn 21, Issue 4, 2005, Pages 273-303

  Ford, Andrew ^a   Flynn, Hilary ^b  

^a WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b Prometheus Institute   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

MODELING; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS;

EID: 33644781522     PISSN: 08837066     EISSN: 10991727     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/sdr.322     Document Type: Article

References (34)

1. Backus G, Amlin J. 1985. Combined Mutidimensional Simulation Language. In Proceedings of the 1985 International System Dynamics Conference, System Dynamics Society, Albany, NY.
2. Eberlein R. 1989. Simplification and understanding of models. System Dynamics Review 5(1): 51-68.
3. Ford A. 1990. Estimating the impact of efficiency standards on the uncertainty of the Northwest Electric System. Operations Research 38(4): 580-597.
4. Ford A. 1999. Modeling the Environment. Island Press: Covelo, California.
5. Ford A, McKay M. 1985. Quantifying uncertainty in energy model forecasts. Energy Systems and Policy 9(3): 217-241.
6. Ford D. 1999. A behavioral approach to feedback loop dominance analysis. System Dynamics Review 15(1): 3-36.
7. Forrester J. 1980. Information sources for modeling the national economy. Journal of the American Statistical Association 75(371): 555-566.
8. Forrester N. 1983. Eigenvalue analysis of dominant feedback loops. In 1983 International System Dynamics Conference, System Dynamics Society, Albany, NY.
9. Goncalves P. 2000. The impact of shortages on push-pull production systems. Working paper from the Sloan School of Management, MIT.
10. Goncalves P, Hines J, Sterman J. 2005. The impact of endogenous demand on push-pull production systems. System Dynamics Review 21(3): 187-216.
11. Graham A. 1980. Parameter estimation in system dynamics modeling. In Elements of the System Dynamics Method, Randers J (ed.). Pegasus Communications, Waltham, MA.
12. Guneralp B. 2005. Towards coherent loop dominance analysis: progress in eigenvalue elasticity analysis. In Proceedings of the 2005 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. http://www.albany.edu/cpr/sds/ conf2005/index.htm [9 November 2005].
13. Hahn G, Meeker W. 1991. Statistical Intervals: A Guide for Practitioners. Wiley: New York.
14. Kampmann C. 1996. Feedback loop gains and system behavior. In Proceedings of the 1996 International System Dynamics Conference, System Dynamics Society, Albany, NY.
15. Kampmann C. 2004. Feedback loop gains and system behavior. Working paper from the Center for Applied Management Studies, Copenhagen Business School.
16. Kitching R. 1983. Systems Ecology: An Introduction to Ecological Modeling. University of Queensland Press: Saint Lucia.
17. Lyneis J, Pugh A. 1996. Automated vs. "hand" calibration of system dynamics models. In Proceedings of the 1996 International System Dynamics Conference.
18. McKay M, Conover W, Beckman R. 1979. A comparison of three methods for selecting values of input variables in the analysis of output from a computer code. Technometrics 21.
19. Meadows D, Meadows D (eds). 1973. Toward Global Equilibrium: Collected Papers. Pegasus Communications, Waltham, MA.
20. Meadows D, Meadows D, Randers J, Behrens W. 1972. The Limits to Growth. Universe Books: New York, NY.
21. Meadows D, Behrens W, Meadows D, Naill R, Randers J, Zahn E. 1974. Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World. Pegasus Communications, Waltham, MA.
22. Miller JH. 1998. Active nonlinear tests of complex simulation models. Management Science 44(6): 820-830.
23. Mojtahedzadeh M, Andersen D, Richardson G. 2004. Using Digest to implement the pathway participation method for detecting influential system structure. System Dynamics Review 20(1): 1-20.
24. Oliva R. 2003. Model calibration as a testing strategy for system dynamics models. European Journal of Operational Research 151: 552-568.
25. Peterson D. 1980. Statistical tools for system dynamics. In Elements of the System Dynamics Method, Randers J (ed.). Pegasus Communications, Waltham, MA.
26. Powell D, Fair J, LeClaire R, Moore L, Thompson D. 2005. Sensitivity analysis of an infectious disease model. In Proceedings of the 2005 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society http:// www.albany.edu/cpr/sds/conf2005/index.htm [9 November 2005].
27. Reilly J, Edmonds J, Gardner R, Brenkert A. 1987. Uncertainty analysis of the IEA/ORNU carbon dioxide emissions model. Energy Journal, July.
28. Richardson G. 1986. Dominant structure. System Dynamics Review 2(1): 68-75.
29. Richardson G. 1996. Problems for the future of system dynamics. System Dynamics Review 12(2): 141-157.
30. Senge P. 1977. Statistical estimation of feedback models. Simulation 28(June): 177-184.
31. Stainforth DA, Aina T, Christensen C, Collins M, Faull N, Frame DJ, Kettleborough JA, Knight S, Martin A, Murphy JM, Piani C, Sexton D, Smith LA, Spicer RA, Thorpe AJ and Allen MR. 2005. Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature 433: 403-406.
32. Sterman J. 2000. Business Dynamics. Irwin McGraw-Hill: New York.
33. van Belle G. 2002. Statistical Rules of Thumb. Wiley: New York.
34. Welch W, Buck R, Sacks J, Wynn H, Mitchell T, Morris M. 1992. Screening, predicting and computer experiments, Technometrics 34(1): 15-25.