Spatio-temporal modelling of the HIV epidemic in Japan based on the national HIV/AIDS surveillance

Journal of Geographical Systems

Volumn 7, Issue 3-4, 2005, Pages 313-336

  Nakaya, Tomoki ^a   Nakase, Katsumi ^b   Osaka, Ken ^c  

^a RITSUMEIKAN UNIVERSITY   (Japan)

^b Health Centre   (Japan)

^c NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES   (Japan)

Author keywords

Epidemic model; GWR; HIV AIDS surveillance; Japan; Spatial diffusion

Indexed keywords

EPIDEMIC; HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS; MODELING; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS;

ASIA; EURASIA; FAR EAST; JAPAN;

EID: 33644768192     PISSN: 14355930     EISSN: 14355949     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10109-005-0008-3     Document Type: Article

References (37)

1. Anderson RM, May RM, Anderson B (1992) Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control. Oxford University Press, Oxford (Reprinted Edition)
2. Bailey NTJ (1975) The mathematical theory of infectious diseases and its applications. Griffin, London
3. Baroyan OV, Rvachev LA (1967) Deterministic epidemic models for a territory with a transport network. Kibernetika 3:67-74
4. Brundson C, Fotheringham AS, Charlton M (1996) Geographically weighted regression: A method for exploring spatial non-stationarity. Geogr Anal 28:281-298
5. Casetti E, Fan CC (1991) The spatial spread of the AIDS epidemic in Ohio: Empirical analysis using the expansion method. Environ Plann A 23:1589-1608
6. Chin J, Lwanga SK (1991) Estimation and projection of adult AIDS cases: a simple epidemiological model. Bull World Health Organ 69:399-406
7. Cliff AD, Haggett P (1988) Atlas of disease distributions: Analytic approaches to epidemiological data. Blackwell, Oxford
8. Cliff AD, Haggett P, Ord JK (1986) Spatial aspects of influenza epidemics. Pion, London
9. Dorling D (1996) Area Cartograms: Their use and creation. CATMOG 39, Environmental Publications, Norwich
10. Fotheringham AS, Brunsdon C, Charlton M (2002) Geographically weighted regression: The analysis of spatially varying relationships. Wiley, Chichester
11. Gardner LI Jr, Brundage JF, Burke DS, McNeil JG, Visitine R, Miller RN (1989) Spatial diffusion of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus infection epidemic in the United States 1985-97. Ann Am Assoc Geogr 79:25-43
12. Golub A, Gorr WL, Gould PR (1993) Spatial diffusion of the HIV/AIDS epidemic:mOdeling implications and a case study of the AIDS incidence in Ohio. Geogr Anal 25:85-100
13. Gould P (1993) The slow plague: A geography of the AIDS pandemic. Blackwell, Cambridge
14. Gould PR, Kabel J, Gorr WL, Golub A (1991) AIDS: Predicting the next map. Interfaces 21:80-92
15. Guldmann J-M (1999) Competing destinations and intervening opportunities interaction models of inter-city telecommunication flows. Pap Reg Sci 78:179-194
16. Hashimoto S, Fukutomi K, Morio S, Ichikawa S, Yamamoto N, Nemura M, Soda K (1993) Prediction of future trends of HIV infection and AIDS in Japan. Nippon Kosyu Eisei Zasshi (Jpn J Pub Health) 42:926-933 (in Japanese with English abstract)
17. Hashimoto S, Fukutomi K, Ichikawa S, Matsuyama Y, Nakamura Y, Kihara M (2000) Future prediction of the number of HIV-infected persons and AIDS cases. J AIDS Res 2:35-42 (in Japanese with English abstract)
18. Hashimoto S, Fukutomi K, Yamaguchi T, Matsuyama Y, Nakamura Y, Kimura H, Ichikawa S, Kihara M (2002) Attempt at long-term prediction of the numbers of HIV-infected persons and AIDS cases in Japan using system analysis. J AIDS Res 4:8-16 (in Japanese with English abstract)
19. Kihara M, Ichikawa S, Kihara M, Hashimoto S, Shinmura K, Soda K (1995) Analysis of cause of recent rise in number of foreigners reported to HIV/ AIDS surveillance in Japan. Nippon Kosyu Eisei Zasshi (Jpn J Pub Health) 42:569-578 (in Japanese with English abstract)
20. Kihara M, Kihara M, Uchino H, Ishizuka T, Ozaki Y, Shimazaki T, Sugimori S, Tuchida S, Nakaune N, Minowa M, Yamamoto T (2001) The nationwide survey of knowledge, sexual behaviour and consciousness about HIV/STD in Japan. In: Editorial Board of Kyoiku-Ankehto-Chosa-Nenkan (ed) Kyoiku-Ankehto-Chosa-Nenkan (Almanac of educational surveys) vol 1. Soikusya, Tokyo, pp 94-105 (in Japanese)
21. Loader C (1999) Local regression and likelihood. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York
22. Löytönen M (1991) The spatial diffusion of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 in Finland, 1982-1997. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 81:127-151
23. Matsumoto T (2000) Clinical epidemiology and follow-up surveys of HIV infected cases and AIDS patients in Japan. In: Kihara M (ed) Annual report of HIV epidemiological research group 1999. Japan Public Health Association, Tokyo, pp 127-148 (in Japanese)
24. Matsuyama Y, Hashimoto S, Ichikawa S, Nakamura Y, Kidokoro T, Umeda T, Kamakura M, Kimura S, Fukutomi K, Ikeda C, Kihara M (1999) Trends in HIV and AIDS based on HIV/AIDS surveillance data in Japan. Int J Epidemiol 28:1149-1155
25. Nakaya T (1994) A spatio-temporal epidemic model for influenza. Jinbun-Chiri (Hum Geogr) 46:254-273 (in Japanese with English abstract)
26. Nakaya T (2001) Local spatial interaction modelling based on the geographically weighted regression approach. GeoJournal 53:347-358
27. Nakaya T, Nakase K, Osaka K, Okabe N (2002) Spatial diffusion of the HIV/ AIDS epidemic in Japan based on the national HIV/AIDS surveillance. Proceedings of the GeoHealth Conference and SIRC Colloquium 2002, pp 15-21
28. Nakaya T, Fotheringham S, Brunsdon C, Charlton M (2005) Geographically weighted Poisson regression for disease associative mapping. Stat Med (in press)
29. Nemoto T (2004) HIV/AIDS Surveillance and prevention studies in Japan: summary and recommendations. AIDS Educ Prev 16(Suppl A):27-42
30. Rvachev LA, Longini IM (1986) A mathematical model for the global spread of influenza. Math Biosci 75:3-22
31. Smallman-Raynor M, Cliff A, Haggett P (1992) Atlas of AIDS. Blackwell, Oxford
32. Stouffer SA (1960) Intervening opportunities and competing migrants. J Reg Sci 2:1-26
33. Thomas RW (1992) Geomedical systems: Intervention and control. Routledge, London.
34. Thomas RW (1994) Forecasting global HIV-AIDS dynamics: Modelling strategies and preliminary simulations. Environ Plann A 26:1147-1166
35. Thomas RW (1999) Stability and mixing conditions for HIV/AIDS models with regional compartments. J Geogr Syst 3:347-365
36. Thomas RW (2000) Reconstructing the space-time structure of the HIV/AIDS epidemic for the countries of Western Europe. Transact Inst Brit Geogr, New Ser 25:445-463
37. Williams JS, Rees PH (1994) A simulation of the transmission of HIV and AIDS in regional populations within the United Kingdom. Transact Inst Brit Geogr New Ser 19:311-330