Ukraine and the west

Survival

Volumn 48, Issue 1, 2006, Pages 93-110

  Larrabee, Stephen F ^a  

^a RAND CORPORATION   (United States)

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EID: 33644633899     PISSN: 00396338     EISSN: 14682699     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/00396330600594298     Document Type: Article

References (27)

1. During Kuchma's first term, the NSDC played an important policy role under Volodymyr Horbulin, its head, until Horbulin fell out of favour with Kuchma. It was less powerful under Horbulin's successor, Evhan Marchuk. Kuchma considered Marchuk a political rival and kept him at arm's length.
2. The NSDC has historically had a broader mandate than the US National Security Council and that mandate has included domestic issues.
3. For details, see Taras Kuzio, EU and Ukraine: A Turning Point in 2004?, Occasional Paper No. 47 (Paris: The European Union Institute for Security Studies, November 2003).
4. See his speech to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, BBC Monitoring Services, 25 January 2005. Also 'Der EU Beitritt als strategisches Ziel Kiews', Neue Zürcher Zeitung, 26 January 2005.
5. For the text of the Action Plan, see the EU's website: http://europa.eu.int/comm/world/enp/pdf/action_plans/ Proposed_Action_Plan_EU-Ukraine.pdf.
6. See the speech to the Madariaga European Foundation and EastWest Institute by Benita Ferrero-Waldner, EU Commissioner for External Relations and European Neighborhood Policy, 'The EU and Ukraine - What Lies Beyond the Horizon', Brussels, 26 April 2005.
7. TNS Sofres, 'Europeans and the Accession of Ukraine to the European Union,' Wave 2, Main Conclusions, November 2005. See http://www.yesukraine.org/en/survey/november.html.
8. See RFE/RL Newsline, vol. 9, no. 78, 26 April 2005.
9. Although Kinakh's party is part of the government and Kinakh heads the NSDC, many members of his party voted against a Memorandum of Understanding with NATO over the use of Ukrainian airlift capacity. As a result, the memorandum failed to be ratified by the Rada. See Taras Kuzio, 'Who Are Yushchenko's True Allies?', Eurasian Daily Monitor, vol. 2, no. 212, 14 November 2005.
10. See Victor Chudowsky and Taras Kuzio, 'Does Public Opinion Matter in Ukraine? The Case of Foreign Policy', Communist and Post-Communist Studies, vol. 36 (2003), pp. 273-90.
11. For a detailed discussion, see Walter Parchomenko, 'Prospects for Genuine Reform in Ukraine's Security Forces', Armed Forces and Society, vol. 28, no. 2, Winter 2002, pp. 287-92.
12. Discussions with Senior Ukrainian defence officials, Kiev, June 2005.
13. Ibid.
14. For details, see Ronald D. Asmus, Opening NATO's Door. How the Alliance Remade Itself for a New Era (New York: Columbia University Press, 2002), pp. 188-200.
15. For background, see James Sherr, 'Russia-Ukrainian Rapprochement: The Black Sea Fleet', Survival, vol. 39, no. 37, Autumn 1997, pp. 35-50.
16. However, the timing of Ukraine's entry will be important. Russia faces a presidential election in 2008. Bringing in Ukraine too soon could provoke a nationalist backlash that could influence the outcome of the election. Thus even if Ukraine is considered ready, it would be wise to wait at least until after the Russian election before admitting Ukraine in order to minimise the impact on the Russian elections.
17. The scandal involved allegations that Kuchma was implicated in the murder of independent Ukrainian journalist Georgiy Gongadze.
18. For the text of the statement, see http://www.whitehouse.gov/ news.releases/2005/04/print/20050404-1.html.
19. There are signs, however, that the congressional log-jam may be beginning to break. In mid-November 2005, the Senate passed legislation exempting Ukraine from the provisions of the Jackson-Vanik amendment. The House is expected to pass similar legislation in the near future. Thus Ukraine could graduate from Jackson-Vanik by early 2006. This would remove an important irritant in US-Ukrainian relations and could give new impetus to bilateral trade between Kiev and Washington.
20. One concrete reflection of the growing trilateral cooperation among Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania is the decision in May 2005 to create an Inter-Parliamentary Assembly among the three countries. The idea had its origins in the mediation effort by Kwasniewski and Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus during the Ukrainian crisis in November-December 2004. Symbolically, it represents a successor to the Diet of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, which was abolished when Russia annexed most of the Commonwealth's territory in the late eighteenth century. See Vladimir Socor, 'Poland, Lithuania Create Interparliamentary Assembly, Joint Battalion', Eurasian Daily Monitor, vol. 2, no. 96, 17 May 2005.
21. Founded in 1997, GUAM included Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova. Uzbekistan joined in 1999, at which time the organisation was renamed GUUAM. Its purpose was to strengthen the political and economic independence of its members. The five countries sought to coordinate national policies in the areas of peacekeeping, conflict resolution, energy and transportation. However, after 2002, cooperation gradually lost momentum and the group degenerated into little more than a hollow shell. Uzbekistan dropped out in May 2005.
22. Vladimir Socor, 'Baltic Sea-Black Sea "Axis" Adumbrated', Eurasia Monitor, vol. 2, no. 60, 28 March 2005.
23. The CDC held its first summit in Kiev on 2 December 2005. The summit was attended by the presidents of Macedonia, Moldova, Slovenia, Romania, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as high officials from the Council of Europe, OSCE, Bulgaria, Poland and Azerbaijan. Russia's President Vladimir Putin was invited but declined to attend, as did Belarus President Alexander Lukashenka.
24. One of the key weaknesses from the Moldovan point of view was the call for 'free democratic elections' to Transnistria's Supreme Soviet, which would serve to legitimise the current power structures in the separatist region. In addition, the proposal did not call for a withdrawal of Russian forces from Transnistria.
25. 'Ukraine bietet Georgien Soldaten an', Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 22 April 2005.
26. Foreign Minister Boris Tarasyuk, for instance, has stated that 'as a result of its potential and geographic location, Ukraine has the geopolitical basis to become a regional power'. See his interview 'Die Ukraine hat das Potential zur Führungsmacht', Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 28 April 2005.
27. See also his interview 'Unsere Vermittlungsgabe erklärt unseren Führungsanspruch', Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 16 November 2005.