Demand forecast and elasticities estimation of public transport

Journal of Transport Economics and Policy

Volumn 40, Issue 1, 2006, Pages 45-67

  García Ferrer, Antonio ^a   Bujosa, Marcos ^b   de Juan, Aránzazu ^a   Poncela, Pilar ^a  

^a UNIVERSIDAD AUTÓNOMA DE MADRID   (Spain)

^b UNIVERSIDAD COMPLUTENSE DE MADRID   (Spain)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ESTIMATION METHOD; PUBLIC TRANSPORT; TRANSPORTATION ECONOMICS; URBAN TRANSPORT;

EURASIA; EUROPE; MADRID [SPAIN]; SOUTHERN EUROPE; SPAIN;

EID: 33644560601     PISSN: 00225258     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. Armstrong, J. and F. Collopy (1992): 'Error Measures for Generalizing about Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons,' International Journal of Forecasting, 8, 69-90.
2. Baumgartner, J. P. (1995): 'Beyond Transportation Forecasting,' International Journal of Transportation Economics, 22, 3-14.
3. Beesley, M. and M. A. Kemp (1987): 'Urban Transportation,' in E. S. Mills (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Volume II: Urban Economics, Amsterdam: North Holland, 1023-52.
4. Box, G. E. P. and G. C. Tiao (1975): 'Intervention Analysis with Applications to Economic and Environmental Problems,' Journal of the American Statistical Association, 70, 70-79.
5. Bujosa, M., A. García-Ferrer, and P. C. Young (2005): 'An ARMA representation of unobserved component models under generalized random walk specifications: new algorithms and examples,' Mimeo.
6. Carbajo, J. C. (1988): 'The Economics of Travel Passes,' Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 22, 153-73.
7. Dargay, J. M. and M. Hanly (2002): 'The Demand for Local Bus Services in England,' Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 36, 73-91.
8. Fildes, R. (1992): 'The Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods,' International Journal of Forecasting, 8, 81-98.
9. FitzRoy, F. and I. Smith (1999): 'Season Tickets and the Demand for Public Transport,' Kyklos, 52, 219-38.
10. García-Ferrer, A. and R. A. Queralt (1997): 'A Note on Forecasting International Tourism Demand in Spain,' International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 539-49.
11. García-Ferrer, A. and R. A. Queralt (1998): 'Can Univariate Models Forecast Turning Points in Seasonal Economic Time Series?' International Journal of Forecasting, 14, 433-46.
12. Gillen, D. W. (1977): 'Alternative Policy Variables to Influence Urban Transport Demand,' Canadian Journal of Economics, 10, 686-95.
13. Goodwin, P. B. (1992): 'A Review of New Demand Elasticities with Special Reference to Short and Long Run Effects of Price Changes,' Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 27, 2, 155-63.
14. Hensher, D. A. (1998): 'Establishing a Fare Elasticity Regime for Urban Passenger Transport,' Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 32, 221-46.
15. Lave, C. A. (1994): 'A Behavioral Approach to Modal Split Forecasting,' in E. Mohring (ed.), The Economics of Transport, Vol. 1, Aldershot: Elgar Ref. Collection no. 34, 215-32.
16. Leamer, E. E. (1978): Specification Searches, New York: John Wiley.
17. Lythgoe, W. F. and M. Wardman (2002): 'Demand for Rail Travel to and from Airports,' Transportation, 29, 125-43.
18. Matas, A. (2002): 'Demand and revenue implications of an integrated public transport policy. The case of Madrid,' Mimeo.
19. Oum, T. H., W. G. Waters, and J. S. Yong (1992): 'Concepts of Price Elasticities of Transport Demand and Recent Empirical Estimates,' Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 26, 139-54.
20. Peña, D. (2001): 'Outliers, Influential Observations and Missing Data,' in Peña, D., G. C. Tiao, and R. S. Tsay (eds.) A Course in Time Series Analysis, New York: John Wiley, 136-70.
21. Preston, J. (1998): 'Public transport elasticities: time for a rethink?' UTSG Conference Dublin. TSU856 Transport Studies Unit, University of Oxford.
22. Pucher, J. and S. Kurth (1996): 'Verkehrsverbund: the Success of Regional Public Transport in Germany, Austria and Switzerland,' Transport Policy, 2, 279-91.
23. de Rus, G. (1990): 'Public Transport Demand Elasticities in Spain,' Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 24, 189-201.
24. Slavin, H. (1996): 'An Integrated Dynamic Approach to Travel Demand Forecasting,' Transportation, 23, 313-50.
25. Small, K. A. (1992): Urban Transportation Economics, Chur (Switzerland): Harwood Academic Publishers.
26. White, P. (1981): 'Travelcard Tickets in Urban Public Transport,' Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 15, 17-34.
27. Young, P. C. and C. Ng (1989): 'Variance Intervention,' Journal of Forecasting, 8, 399-416.
28. Young, P. C., D. Pedregal, and W. Tych (1999): 'Dynamic Harmonic Regression,' Journal of Forecasting, 18, 369-94.