Comparison of grey and phase-space rainfall forecasting models using a fuzzy decision method

Hydrological Sciences Journal

Volumn 49, Issue 4, 2004, Pages 655-672

  Yu, Pao Shan ^a   Chen, Shien Tsung ^a   Wu, Che Chuan ^a   Lin, Shu Chen ^b  

^a NATIONAL CHENG KUNG UNIVERSITY   (Taiwan)

^b LEADER UNIVERSITY   (Taiwan)

Author keywords

Fuzzy decision; Grey model; Phase space theory; Rainfall forecasting

Indexed keywords

DECISION MAKING; FUZZY CONTROL; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PROBLEM SOLVING; RAIN; STATISTICAL METHODS;

FUZZY DECISION MODEL;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

ACCURACY ASSESSMENT; FORECASTING METHOD; FUZZY MATHEMATICS; RAINFALL; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS;

EID: 3343011543     PISSN: 02626667     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1623/hysj.49.4.655.54427     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. Burlando, P., Rosso, R., Cadavid, I., G. & Salas, J. D. (1993) Forecasting of short-term rainfall using ARMA models. J. Hydrol. 144, 193-211.
2. Chen, S. T. (1998) Application of grey prediction model on runoff forecasting. MS Thesis, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan (in Chinese).
3. Crutchfield, J. P. & McNamara, B. S. (1987). Equations of motion from a data series. Complex Systems 1, 417-452.
4. Deng, J. L. (1989) Introduction to grey system theory. J. Grey Systems 1(1), 1-24.
5. Docine, L., Andrieu, H. & Creutin, J. D. (1999) Evaluation of a simplified dynamical rainfall forecasting model from rain events simulated using a meteorological model. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part B: Hydrology, Oceans and Atmosphere 24(8), 883-887.
6. Farmer, J. D. & Sidorovich, J. J. (1987) Predicting chaotic time series. Phys. Rev. Lett. 59(8), 845-848.
7. Grassberger, P. & Procaccia, I. (1983) Characterization of strange attractors. Phys. Rev. Lett, 50(5), 346-349.
8. Hsiao, S. W. (1998) Fuzzy logic based decision model for product design. Int. J. Industr. Ergonomics 21, 103-116.
9. Huang, Y. P. & Huang, C. C. (1996) The integration and application of fuzzy and grey modeling methods. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 78, 107-119.
10. Jayawardena, A. W. & Lai, F. (1994) Analysis and prediction of chaos in rainfall and stream flow time series. J. Hydrol. 153(1-4), 23-52.
11. Kember, G., Flower, A. C. & Holubeshen, J. (1993) Forecasting river flow using nonlinear dynamics. Stochast. Hydrol. Hydraul. 7, 205-212.
12. Klir, G. J. & Yuan, B. (1995), Fuzzy Sets and Fuzzy Logic: Theory and Applications. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, USA.
13. Lin, S. C. (1999). Fractals and chaos in the analysis and prediction of nonlinear hydrologic systems. PhD dissertation, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan (in Chinese)
14. Luk, K. C., Ball, J. E. & Sharma, A. (2001) An application of artificial neural networks for rainfall forecasting. Math. Computer Modelling 33, 683-693.
15. Meade, N. & Islam, T. (1998) Technological forecasting-model selection, model stability, and combining model. Management Sci. 44(8), 1115-1130.
16. Mujumdar, P. P. & Kumar, D. N. (1990) Stochastic models of streamflow: some case studies. Hydrol. Sci. J. 35(4), 395-410.
17. Oiwa N. N. & Fiedler-Ferrara, N. (1998) A fast algorithm for estimating Lyapunov exponents from time series. Phys. Lett. A 246(1-2), 117-121.
18. Packard, N. H., Crutchfield, J. P., Farmer, J. D. & Shaw, R. S. (1980) Geometry from a time series. Phys. Rev. Lett. 45(9), 712-716.
19. Rodriguez-Iturbe, I., de Power, B. F., Sharifi, M. B. & Georgakakos, K. P. (1989) Chaos in rainfall. Water Resour. Res. 25(7), 1667-1675.
20. Sugihara, G. & May, R. M. (1990) Nonlinear forecasting as a way of distinguishing chaos from measurement error in time series. Nature 344, 734-741.
21. Yakowitz, S. (1987) Nearest-neighbour methods for time series analysis. J. Time Series Analysis 8(2), 235-247.
22. Yager, R. R. (1977) Multiple objective decision-making using fuzzy set. Int. J. Man-Machine Studies 9, 375-382.
23. Yu, P. S. & Yang T. C. (1997) A probability-based renewal rainfall model for flow forecasting. Natural Hazards 15, 51-70.
24. Yu, P. S., Chen, C. J. & Chen, S. J. (2000) Application of grey and fuzzy methods for rainfall forecasting. J. Hydrol. Engng 5(4), 339-345.
25. Yu, P. S., Chen, C. J., Chen, S. J. & Lin, S. C. (2001) Application of grey model toward runoff forecasting. J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 37(1), 151-166.
26. Xia, J. (1989) Research and application of grey system theorem to hydrology. J. Grey Systems 1(1), 43-52.
27. Zadeh, L. A. (1965) Fuzzy sets. Information Control 8, 338-353.
28. Zimmermann, H. J. (2001) Fuzzy Sets Theory-and its Applications, fourth edn. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.