The effect of uncertainty on 'risk rationalizing' decisions

Journal of Risk Research

Volumn 8, Issue 2, 2005, Pages 119-138

  Hassenzahl, David M ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NEVADA   (United States)

Author keywords

Cost benefit analysis; Cost effectiveness analysis; Risk analysis methods; Risk decision making; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

COST EFFECTIVENESS; DECISION THEORY; PUBLIC POLICY; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK PERCEPTION;

COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS; RISK ANALYSIS METHOD; RISK-DECISION MAKING;

UNCERTAIN SYSTEMS;

EID: 32144449610     PISSN: 13669877     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/1366987032000105324     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. Arrow, K. J., Cropper, M. L., Eads, G. C., Hann, R. W., Lave, L. B., Noll, R. G., Portney, P. R., Russel, M., Schmalensee, R., Smith, V. K. and Stavins, R. N. (1996) Is there a role for benefitcost analysis in environmental, health, and safety regulation?, Science 212, 221-22.
2. Breyer, S. (1993) Breaking the Vicious Circle, Cambridge, MA; Harvard University Press.
3. Briggs, A. and Sculpher, M. (1995) Sensitivity analysis in economic evaluation: a review of published studies, Health Economics 4, 355-71.
4. Camerer, C. F. and Kunreuther, H. (1989) Decision processes for low probability events: policy implications, Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 8(4), 565-92.
5. Cavallo, A. J. (1999) Evaluation of a radon policy based on cost-benefit methodology, Technology 6, 391-401.
6. Clotfelter, C. and Hahn, J. (1978) Assessing the national 55 mph speed limit, Policy Sciences 9, 281-94.
7. Dewees, D. and Daniels, R. (1986) The cost of protecting occupational health: the asbestos case, Journal of Human Resources 21, 831-96.
8. Farrow, S. and Toman, M. (1999) Using benefit-cost analysis to improve environmental regulations, Environment 41(2), 12-21.
9. Finkel, A. M. (1989) Is risk assessment really too conservative? Revising the revisionists, Columbia Journal of Environmental Law 14, 427-67.
10. Finkel, A. M. (1995) Toward less misleading comparisons of uncertain risks - the example of Aflatoxin and Alar, Environmental Health Perspectives 103(4), 376-85.
11. Graham, J. (1995) Edging towards sanity on regulatory risk reform, Issues in Science and Technology 11(4), 21-30.
12. Graham, J. (2000) Making sense of risk, Risk Analysis 20(3), 302-6.
13. Griffiths, C. W., Dockins, C., Owens, N., Simon, N. B. and Axelrod, D. A. (2002) What to do at low doses: a bounding approach for economic analysis, Risk Analysis 22(4), 679-88.
14. Gurian, P., Small, M. J., Lockwood, J. R. and Schervish, M. J. (2001) Addressing uncertainty and conflicting cost estimates in revising the arsenic MCL, Environmental Science and Technology 35(22), 4414-20.
15. Hammitt, J. (1990) Probability is all we have, New York: Garland Publishing.
16. Harrington, W., Morgenstern, R. and Nelson, P. (1999) On the Accuracy of Regulatory Cost Estimates, Washington, DC: Resources for the Future.
17. Hassenzahl, D. M. (2000) Numbers versus knowledge: appropriate use of quantitative and qualitative analysis in environmental decision making, Unpublished Dissertation. Woodrow Wilson School Princeton, NJ: Princeton University.
18. Heinzerling, L. (1998) Regulatory costs of mythic proportions, Yale Law Review 107, 1981-2070.
19. Heinzerling, L. (2002) Five-hundred life-saving interventions and their misuse in the debate over regulatory reform, Risk: Health, Safety and Environment 13(1/2), 151-75.
20. Hornstein, D. T. (1992) Reclaiming environmental law: a normative critique of comparative risk analysis, Columbia Law Review 92(3), 562-633.
21. Jasanoff, S. (1993) Bridging the gap between the two risk cultures, Risk Analysis 13(2), 123-29.
22. Kaiser, J. (2002) How much are human lives and health worth?, Science 299, 1836-37.
23. Lindblom, C. E. (1990) Inquiry and Change, New Haven: Yale University Press.
24. Mannering, F. and Winston, C. (1987) Blind Intersection?: Policy and the Automobile Industry, Washington DC: Brookings Institute.
25. Manning, W. G. and Fryback, D. G., et al. (1996) Reflecting uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis, in M. C. Weinstein (ed) Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine, pp. 247-75. New York: Oxford University Press.
26. Margolis, H. (1996) Dealing with Risk, Chicago: Univesity of Chicago Press.
27. Montague, P. (1999) The waning days of risk assessment, Rachel's Environment and Health News #652 May 29, 1999.
28. Morgan, G. and Henrion, M. (1990) Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
29. Morrall, J. F. (1986) A review of the record, Regulation 10(3), 25-34.
30. Neill, H. R. and Neill, R. H. (2000) Transportation of transuranic nuclear waste to WIPP: a reconsideration of truck versus rail for two sites, Natural Resources Journal 40(1), 93-124.
31. National Research Council (1994) Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment, Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
32. National Research Council (1996) Understanding Risk, Washington DC: National Academy Press.
33. Puskin, J. S. and Hunger, B. (1996) Comments on Tengs et al. comparative study of the cost-effectiveness of life-saving interventions, Risk Analysis 16(2), 131.
34. Ramsberg, J. (2002) When should expenditure per life saved vary?, Journal of Risk Research 5(3), 249-63.
35. Ramsberg, J. and Sjoberg, L. (1997) The cost-effectiveness of lifesaving interventions in Sweden, Risk Analysis 17(4), 467-78.
36. Revetz, R. L. (1999) Environmental regulation, cost-benefit analysis, and the discounting of human lives, Columbia Law Review 99(4), 941-1017.
37. Rey, H. A. (1957) Curious George Rides a Bike, Boston, MA: Houghton-Mifflin.
38. Shrader-Frechette, K. S. (1995) Comparative risk assessment and the naturalistic fallacy, Trends in Ecology & Evolution 10(1), 50.
39. Slovic, P. (1999) Trust, emotion, sex, politics and science: surveying the risk-assessment battlefield, Risk Analysis 19(4), 689-702.
40. Sunstein, C. (2002) Risk and Reason: Safety, Law and the Environment, New York: Cambridge University Press.
41. Tengs, T. O., Adams, M. E., Pliskin, J. S., Safran, D. G., Siegel, J. E., Weinstein, M. C. and Graham, J. D. (1995) Five-hundred life-saving interventions and their cost-effectiveness, Risk Analysis 15(3), 369-90.
42. Thompson, K. M. (2002) Variability and uncertainty meet risk management and risk communication, Risk Analysis 22(3), 647-54.
43. US EPA (1979) Determination persuant to 40CFR162.11(a)(5) concluding the rebuttable presumption against registration of pesticide products containing amitraz, Federal Register 48, 2678-83.
44. US EPA (1996) Proposed guidelines for carcinogenic risk assessment; notice, Federal Register 51, 33992-34028.
45. Van Houtven, G. L. and Cropper, M. L. (1993) When is a Life too Costly to Save? The Evidence from Environmental Regulation, Washington DC: Resources for the Future.
46. Viscusi, K. (1998) Rational Risk Policy, New York: Oxford University Press.
47. Zeckhauser, R. and Shepard, D. (1976) Where now for saving lives, Law and Contemporary Problems 40, 4-45.