Performance of National Weather Service Forecasts compared to operational, consensus, and weighted model output statistics

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 20, Issue 6, 2005, Pages 1034-1047

  Baars, Jeffrey A ^a   Mass, Clifford F ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; COMPUTER SIMULATION; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); STATISTICAL METHODS;

MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS; PRECIPITATION FORECASTS; TEMPERATURE FORECASTS;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

FORECASTING METHOD; NUMERICAL MODEL; PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT; TEMPERATURE; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 32044450771     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/WAF896.1     Document Type: Article

References (16)

1. Bosart, L. F., 1975: SUNYA experimental results in forecasting daily temperature and precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 103, 1013-1020.
2. Brooks, H. E., and C. A. Doswell, 1996: A comparison of measures-oriented and distributions-oriented approaches to forecast verification. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 288-303.
3. Daley, R., 1991: Atmospheric Data Analysis. Cambridge University Press, 457 pp.
4. Dallavalle, J. P., and V. J. Dagostaro, 2004: Objective interpretation of numerical weather prediction model output - A perspective based on verification of temperature and precipitation guidance. Preprints, Symp. on the 50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction, College Park, MD, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 6.1.
5. Glahn, H. R., and D. A. Lowry, 1972: The use of model output statistics (MOS) in objective weather forecasting. J. Appl. Meteor., 11, 1203-1211.
6. Gyakum, J. R., 1986: Experiments in temperature and precipitation forecasting for Illinois. Wea. Forecasting, 1, 77-88.
7. Hirschberg, P., cited 2004: Amended: Change to issuance time of Eta MOS guidance effective February 17 2004 at 1200 UTC. [Available online at http://nws.noaa.gov/om/notifications/tin03-48eta_mos_aaa.txt.]
8. Jensenius, J. S., Jr., J. P. Dallavalle, and S. A. Gilbert, 1993: The MRF-based statistical guidance message. NWS Tech. Procedures Bull. 411, NOAA, 11 pp.
9. MDL, cited 2005: MDL's on-line MOS archives. [Available online at http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~mos/archives/.]
10. Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler, 1987: A general framework for forecast verification. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1330-1338.
11. Neilley, P., and K. A. Hanson, 2004: Are model output statistics still needed? Preprints, 20th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 6.4.
12. Sanders, F., 1973: Skill in forecasting daily temperature and precipitation: Some experimental results. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 54, 1171-1178.
13. Taylor, A., and M. Stram, cited 2003: MOS verification. [Available online at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/verif/.]
14. Vislocky, R. L., and J. M. Fritsch, 1995: Improved model output statistics forecasts through model consensus. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 1157-1164.
15. Vislocky, R. L., and J. M. Fritsch, 1997: Performance of an advanced MOS system in the 1996-97 National Collegiate Weather Forecasting Contest. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2851-2857.
16. Wilks, G. E., cited 1998: Intercomparisons among the NGM-MOS, AVN-MOS, and consensus temperature forecasts for West Texas. [Available online at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/topics/attach/html/ssd98-39.htm.]