Al Qaeda's miscommunication war: The terrorism paradox

Terrorism and Political Violence

Volumn 17, Issue 4, 2005, Pages 529-549

  Abrahms, Max ^a  

^a HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

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[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 31744434604     PISSN: 09546553     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/095465591009421     Document Type: Article

References (141)

1. For a recent article on this subject, see Max Abrahms, "Are Terrorists Really Rational? The Palestinian Example"Orbis 48, no. 3 (2004): 533-49.
2. Harvey E. Lapan and Todd Sandier, "Terrorism and Signaling," European Journal of Political Economy 9 (1993): 383-97;
3. Per Batlzer Overgaard, "The Scale of Terrorist Attacks as a Signal of Resources," Journal of Conflict Resolution 38 (1994): 452-78;
4. Bruce Hoffman and Gordon H. McCormick, "Terrorism, Signaling, and Suicide Attack," Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 27 (2004): 243-81.
5. In general, most research in political science dealing with signaling tends to focus on how actors communicate their capability and resolve, while largely ignoring how effective their signals communicate their policy objectives. See, for example, H. E. Goemans, War and Punishment: The Causes of War Termination and the First World War (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2000);
6. Kenneth Schultz, Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001).
7. For a notable exception to this tendency, see Bruce Hoffman, Inside Terrorism (New York: Columbia University Press, 1998).
8. Peter Bergen, Holy War, Inc: Inside the Secret World of Osama bin Laden (New York: Free Press, 2001), 223;
9. Rohan Gunaratna, Inside Al Qaeda: Global Network of Terror (New York: Columbia University Press, 2002), 45;
10. [Michael Scheuer], Imperial Hubris: Why the West Is Losing the War on Terror (New York: Brassey's, 2004).
11. Scheuer, Imperial Hubris, 153.
12. "A Declaration of War by Osama bin Laden, Together with Leaders of the World Islamic Front for the Jihad Against the Jews and the Crusaders." August 1996. http://www.fas.org/irp/world/para/docs/980223-fatwa.htm. Accessed 10 July 2004.
13. Interview with CNN, "Islamic Militant Leader Vows More Anti-U.S. Bombings," 11 May 1997. http://www.cnn.com/world/9705/11/bin.laden. Accessed 12 May 2005.
14. "Text of Interview with Al-Jazeera," 7 October 2001, http://www.bbc/text_of_ usama_video_7october2001.htm. Accessed 10 April 2005.
15. Quoted in Oxford Analytica, "Middle East/Afghanistan: Al Qaida Threat," 14 May 2002, http://www.ciaonet.org/pbei/oxan/oxa05142002.html. Accessed 4 May 2005.
16. "Remarks by the President in Address to the Nation", White House, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/03/20030317-7.html. Accessed 12 June 2005.
17. "Statement by the President to the United Nations General Assembly", http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/18967. Accessed 14 June 2005.
18. A number of scholars share this view. See Ralph Peters, Beyond Terror: Strategy in a Changing World (Mechanicsburg, PA: Stackhole Books, 2002), 46;
19. Malise Ruthven, Fury for God: The Islamist Attack on America (London: Granta Books, 2002).
20. "Presidential Address to a Joint Session of Congress," White House, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/09/20010920-8.html.
21. "Speech by the President to the German Bundestag," http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/2004982.stm. Accessed 14 June 2005.
22. Samuel R. Berger and Mona Sutphen, "Commandeering the Palestinian Cause: Bin Laden's Belated Concern," in How Did This Happen? Terrorism and the New War, eds., James F. Hoge Jr. and Gideon Rose, 124. (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 2001).
23. Michael Scott Doran, "Somebody Else's Civil War: Ideology, Rage, and the Assault on America" in How Did This Happen? Terrorism and the New War, eds. James F. Hoge Jr. and Giden Rose, 32 (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 2001).
24. David Rapoport, "Terrorism", in Routledge Encyclopedia of Government and Politics, eds. M. Hawkesworth and M. Kogan, 1192 (London: Routledge, 1992).
25. For an alternate view of Al Qaeda's objectives see Alan Cullison, "Inside Al Qaeda's Hard Drive," Atlantic Monthly, September 2004, 56.
26. "A Declaration of War against the Americans Occupying the Land of the Two Holy Places: A Message from Osama bin Muhammad bin Laden," http://www.mideastweb.org/osamabinladenl.htm, accessed 8 June 2005.
27. See Bergen, Holy War;
28. Gunaratna, Inside Al Qaeda.
29. See Romesh Ratnesar, "How an Al Qaeda Bigwig Got Nabbed," Time Magazine August 25, 2003, 47.
30. Quoted in Schueur, Imperial Hubris, 153.
31. James F. Hoge Jr. and Gideon Rose, eds., How Did this Happen? Terrorism and the New War (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 2001) x, 5.
32. Bin Laden described their joyous reaction to the September 11 attacks in a videotape made in mid-November 2001 that was later captured during Operation Enduring Freedom. see http://www.homelandsecurity.org/showquotes.asp7/authorid = 50.
33. John Gaddis, Surprise, Security, and the American Experience (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2004), 13.
34. Gary C. Gambill, "The Balance of Terror: War by Other Means in the Contemporary Middle East," Journal of Palestine Studies 109 (1998): 55-7.
35. Paul Wilkinson, "Security Challenges in the New Reality," (lecture, Tufts University, Boston, MA, October 16, 2002).
36. Realists would also claim that it is unsurprising that the United States has not conciliated Al Qaeda because the world's predominant military power is by definition the most resistant to coercion.
37. Robert J. Art, A Grand Strategy for America (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2003), 9.
38. Robert Jervis, The Logic of Images in International Relations (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1970), 24.
39. "Statement by Commissioner Thomas H. Kean during Testimony of Condoleeza Rice before the 9/11 Commission," http://www.cnn.com/2004/ allpolitics/04/08/rice.transcript, accessed 8 June 2005;
40. Andrew J. Bacevich, "Terrorizing the Truth," Foreign Policy 125 (2001): 74-5;
41. Flora Lewis, "The New Anti-Terrorism," New York Review of Books, Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, February 4, 1999;
42. "Candidate Qualities May Trump Issues in 1999," http://www.people-press.org/oct99mor.htm, accessed 8 June 2005.
43. Stanley A. Renshon, "Appraising Good Judgment Before It Matters," in Good Judgment in Foreign Policy, eds. Stanley A. Renshon and Deborah Welch Larson, 69, 71, 73, 273, 289, 292 (Oxford, England: Rowman and Littlefield, 2003).
44. "Statement by Commissioner Jamie Gorelick during Testimony of Condoleeza Rice before the 9/11 Commission," Cable News Network, http://www.cnn.com/2004/allpolitics/04/08/rice.transcript. Accessed 14 June 2005.
45. Richard A. Clarke, Against All Enemies: Inside America's War on Terror (New York: Free Press, 2004) 231-32.
46. Julian Borger, "Interview: Richard Clarke," Guardian Unlimited, March 23, 2004, http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,1175790, 00. Accessed 6 June 2005.
47. "Statement by Commissioner Lee Hamilton during Testimony of Condoleeza Rice before the 9/11 Commission," FindLaw/news.findlaw.com/ hdocs./docs/terrorism/911comm40804tran.html. Accessed 3 June 2005.
48. Clarke, Against All Enemies, 237-38.
49. "Remarks by the President to the Nation," White House, http://www. whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2004/04. Accessed 5 May 2005.
50. Woodward interview quoted by Robert Jay Lifton, "American Apocalypse," Nation, December 22, 2003;
51. See "President Addresses the Nation in Prime Time Press Conference," White House, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases. Accessed 5 May 2005.
52. Bob Woodward, Bush at War (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2002), 39.
53. Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1976), 194, 215, 291.
54. Quoted in Scheuer, 22.
55. "Full Text: Bin Laden's 'Letter to America,'" 24 November 2002, http://www.observer.guardian.co.uk/worldview. Accessed 4 May 2005.
56. Julian Borger, "Bush Told He Is Playing into Bin Laden's Hands," Guardian Unlimited, June 19, 2004, http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/ story/012271,1242639,00.htm. Accessed 8 June 2005.
57. Scheuer, Imperial Hubris, 128, 32.
58. Quoted in "Profiles: Against All Enemies, Political and Otherwise," Pennsylvania Gazette, July/August 2004.
59. Clarke, Against All Enemies, 244-245.
60. Berger and Sutphen, How Did this Happen?, 124.
61. Abdullah Azzam, "Al-Qa'idah al-Sulbah," Al-Jihad, April 1988,
62. quoted 4 January 2000 in Reuven Paz, "The Heritage of the Sunni Militant Groups," http://www.ict.org.il/articles/articledet.cfm?articleid- 415. International Center for Terrorism (ICT) 2000. Accessed 6 June 2005.
63. Gunaratna, Inside Al Qaeda, 90.
64. Quoted in Schueur, 153.
65. "War against the Americans."
66. Interview with CNN, 11 May 1997, "War against the Americans.". op. cit.
67. "War by Osama bin Laden"
68. Goemans, War and Punishment, 31.
69. Jervis, The Logic of Images in International Relations, 119.
70. Alex P. Schmid and Janny de Graaf, Violence as Communication (London: Sage, 1982), 111.
71. Herbert Butterfield, History and Human Relations (London: Collins, 1951), 19-20.
72. Elmer Plischke, "Diplomacy," in Modern Diplomacy: The Art and the Artisans, ed. Elmer Plischke, 32 (Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute, 1979).
73. Charles O. Lerche Jr. and Abdul A. Said, "Diplomacy-Political Technique for Implementing Foreign Policy," in Modern Diplomacy: The Art and the Artisans, ed. Elmer Plischke, 19 (Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute, 1979).
74. Plischke "Diplomacy," 5, 12, 13.
75. For a landmark article on how lying is endemic in international affairs, see James D. Fearon, "Rationalist Explanations for War," International Organization 49, no. 3 (1995): 379-414.
76. Quoted in Plischke "Diplomacy," xi.
77. Ronald D. Crelinsten, "Television and Terrorism: Implications for Crisis Management and Policy-Making," Terrorism and Political Violence 19 (1997): 23.
78. Christopher Hewitt, "Public's Perspectives," in Terrorism and the Media, eds. David L. Paletz and Alex P. Schmid, 177 (London: Sage, 1992).
79. Steven Poe, "Nations' Responses to Transnational Hostage Events: An Empirical Evaluation," International Interactions 14 (1988): 31-37;
80. David Tucker, "Responding to Terrorism," in Debated, eds. Gregory Scott, Louis Furmanski, and Randall J. Jones Jr. (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 2000). The observation that terrorists reside in a more anarchic world than states is meant to be descriptive, not normative. There is no suggestion here that terrorists ought to be embraced by the international community by permitting them to have spokesmen at the United Nations, for example.
81. Abrahms, "Are Terrorists Really Rational?" 533-49.
82. Goemans, War and Punishment, 31.
83. Fearon, "Rationalist Explanation," 408-9.
84. Jervis, The Logic of Images in International Relations, 21, 70, 18, 19.
85. "Presidential Speech at the National Cathedral," White House, http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nssall.html. Accessed 1 May 2005.
86. "Presidential Speech to the Warsaw Conference," Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/nation/specials/attacked/transcripts/ bush.text110601.html. Accessed 3 May 2005.
87. "Statement by President " (see no. 11).
88. "State of the Union Address," Cable News Network, http://www.cnn.com/2003/allpolitics/01/28/sotu.transcript.8/. Accessed 7 June 2005.
89. "Speech to Employees at the Dixie Printing Company," Cable News Network, http://www.cnn.com/transcripts/0110/24/mlld.00.html. Accessed 3 May 2005.
90. "Presidential Address to a Joint Session of Congress," Speech to Employees at the Dixie Printing Company op. cit.
91. "Remarks by the President," (see no. 10).
92. "Presidential Speech Commemorating Pearl Harbor Day," http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/12/20011207.html. Accessed 19 April 2005.
93. "Presidential Speech to the Warsaw Conference."
94. "Presidential Speech at the National Cathedral."
95. "Presidential Address to a Joint Session of Congress."
96. Jervis, 101.
97. Edy Kaufman, "Israeli Perceptions of the Palestinians' 'Limited Violence' in the Intifada," Terrorism and Political Violence 3, no. 41 (1991): 1-38.
98. David C. Rapoport, "The Four Waves of Modern Terrorism," in Attacking Terrorism: Elements of a Grand Strategy, eds. Audrey Kurth and James M. Ludes, 46 (Washington DC: Georgetown University Press, 2004).
99. Leon Festinger, A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1957), 13, 31;
100. Ole R. Holsti, "Cognitive Dynamics and Images of the Enemy," in Image and Reality in world politics, eds. John C. Farrel and Asa P. Smith, 16 (New York: Columbia University Press, 1967);
101. see also Deborah Larson, Origins of Containment: A Psychological Explanation (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1985).
102. Richard Clarke, Good Morning America, ABC, March 22, 2004, www.abcnews.go. com/sections/gma/US/040322_transcript_Richard_Clarke-1.html; see also Larson, (note 83). Accessed 2 May 2005.
103. See Jervis, 394, 404.
104. Jervis, 35.
105. Hewitt, 170.
106. Robert Pape, "The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism," American Political Science Review 97, no. 3 (2003): 343-361.
107. "Text of Osama Bin Laden's Message to the United States, "aired on Al-Jazeera 10 September 2003, posted 18 October 2003 by Northeast Intelligence Network, at http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/bin%20 Laden.htm. Accessed 2 May 2005.
108. Al Qaeda recruitment videotape, 2001, quoted in Bergen, (note 4), 27.
109. Bergen, Holy War, 21.
110. Bruce Hoffman, "Old Madness, New Methods: Revival of Religious Terrorism Begs for Broader U.S. Policy," www.rand.org/publications/ randreview/issues/rr.98.9/methods.
111. Quoted in Bergen, Holy War, 27.
112. Bergen, Holy War, Ibid., 99.
113. "War against the Americans."
114. "War against the Americans" "War by Osama Bin Laden."
115. Daniel Bergner, "Where the Enemy Is Everywhere and Nowhere," New York Times Magazine, July 20, 2003, pp. 14-15;
116. James Kitfield, "Breaking AlQaeda Means Getting Bin Laden," National Journal, November 23, 2002, p. 3496;
117. "Muslims and the U.S.," Christian Science Monitor, June 4, 2003, p. 16.
118. "Remarks by the President at the 20th Anniversary of the National Endowment for Democracy," http://www.bushcountry.org.bush.speeches/ president.bush.speech.111103, accessed 4 May 2005;
119. see also "Presidential Address" (note 12).
120. Schultz, Democracy, chapter 6.
121. "Speech by the President," White House, http://www.whitehouse. gov/news/releases/2002/06/20020601-3.html. Accessed 11 June 2005.
122. "The National Security Strategy of the United States of America," White House, at http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc. Accessed 6 June 2005.
123. An important corollary to cognitive dissonance theory is that people often reduce dissonance by assuming that contradictory signals result from duplicity rather than confusion or multiple agendas. This assumption is due to the human tendency to perceive the behavior of others, especially adversaries, as more coherent and centralized than is actually the case. Bush's rhetoric suggests that he may view Al Qaeda's statements against U.S. Middle East policies as a form of deception, which is belied by Al Qaeda's religious statements to fellow Muslims. For descriptions of this psychological tendency, see Jervis, 195, 340, 338; Holsti, "Cognitive Dynamics and Images of the Enemy";
124. Larson, Origins of Containment.
125. "War against the Americans."
126. "President Addresses the Nation", White House, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/09/20030907-1.html; accessed 5 May 2005;
127. see also "President Bush Addresses the Nation."
128. "Statement by President to the United Nations General Assembly." New York.
129. Ernest May, "Lessons" of the Past: The Use and Misuse of History in American Foreign Policy (London: Oxford University Press, 1975).
130. Stanley Hoffman, Gulliver's Troubles (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1968), 135.
131. Yuen Foong Khong, Analogies at War: Korea, Munich, Dien Bien Phu, and the Vietnam Decisions of 1965 (NJ: Princeton University Press, 1992), 252-253.
132. James Fallows, "Councils of War: Matching Confusing Historical Realities to Historical Experience," Atlantic Monthly, December 2001, 53. The World War II analogy may illuminate several of Bush's most important foreign policy decisions. On the night of September 11 he wrote in his diary, "The Pearl Harbor of the 21st century took place today." According to senior policy planners in the Pentagon, this analogy informed his view of how to wage the war on terrorism. "The Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor, but the weight of the resulting war effort was in Europe," which was perceived as the greater threat. In similar fashion, the Bush administration decided to target the global terrorism structure by focusing on "rogue states," even though they were not responsible for the attacks. To make the case for deposing Saddam Hussein, the centerpiece of his war on terrorism, Bush warned the UN General Assembly in September 2002 that if it failed to enforce its resolution to disarm the Iraqi dictator it would repeat the mistakes of the League of Nations. In his weekly radio address, he then rationalized occupying Iraq by invoking precedents from World War II. "We're not an imperial power as nations such as Japan and Germany can attest. We're a liberating power." In this way, analogical reasoning may have helped convince him not only what policies to adopt, but their moral basis in international history.
133. Still, his underlying fear of emboldening Al Qaeda through concessions is universally recognizable - even if historically the strongest advocates of a "no concessions" policy have not been entirely systematic in their application of this principle.
134. "Statement by President to the United Nations General Assembly." A number of scholars share this view.
135. See Peters, Beyond Terror, 46;
136. Ruthven, Fury for God.
137. Kaufman, "Israeli Perceptions," 1-38;
138. Frederick J. Hacker, "How Effective Is Diplomacy in Dealing with Terrorism?" in Diplomats and Terrorists: What Works, What Doesn't, ed. Martin F. Herz (Washington DC: Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, 1982).
139. Harry Eckstein, Handbook of Political Science: Strategies of Inquiry (Reading, MA: Addision-Wesley, 1975), 79-138.
140. Quoted in Schueur, Imperial Hubris, 153.
141. Al Jazeera, October 29, 2004.