Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

Transport Reviews

Volumn 26, Issue 1, 2006, Pages 1-24

  Flyvbjerg, Bent ^a   Skamris Holm, Mette K ^a   Buhl, Søren L ^a  

^a AALBORG UNIVERSITY   (Denmark)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ACCURACY ASSESSMENT; FORECASTING METHOD; PLANNING METHOD; TRANSPORTATION PLANNING;

EID: 31344472137     PISSN: 01441647     EISSN: 14645327     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/01441640500124779     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. American Planning Association. (1991) AICP Code of Ethics and Professional Conduct. Adopted October 1978, as amended October 1991. Available at:
2. Ascher, W. (1979) Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy-makers and Planners. Baltimore MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
3. Brooks, J.A. and Trevelyan, P.J. (1979) Before and after studies for inter-urban road schemes. In Highway Planning and Design: Proceedings of Seminar N Held at the PTRC Summer Annual Meeting, University of Warwick, England from 9-12 July 1979. (pp. 251-266). London: Planning and Transport Research and Computation.
4. Department of Transportation. (1993) Comparison of Forecast and Observed Traffic on Trunk Road Schemes. London: DoT.
5. Flyvbjerg, B. (1996) The dark side of planning: Rationality and Realrationalität. In Explorations in Planning Theory. (pp. 383-394). New Brunswick NJ: Center for Urban Policy Research Press.
6. Flyvbjerg, B. (1998) Rationality and Power: Democracy in Practice. Chicago IL: University of Chicago Press.
7. Flyvbjerg, B. and Bruzelius, N. and Rothengatter, W. (2003a) Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
8. Flyvbjerg, B. and Holm, M.K.S. and Buhl, S.L. (2002) Cost underestimation in public works projects: Error or lie? Journal of the American Planning Association, 68((3)), pp. 279-295.
9. Flyvbjerg, B. and Holm, M.K.S. and Buhl, S.L. (2003b) How common and how large are cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects? Transport Reviews, 23((1)), pp. 71-88.
10. Flyvbjerg, B. and Holm, M.K.S. and Buhl, S.L. (2004) What causes cost overrun in transport infrastructure projects? Transport Reviews, 24((1)), pp. 3-18.
11. Fouracre, P.R. and Allport, R.J. and Thomson, J.M. (1990) The Performance and Impact of Rail Mass Transit in Developing Countries. Crowthorne: Transportation and Road Research Laboratory. Research Report No. 278
12. Fullerton, B. and Openshaw, S. (1985) An evaluation of the Tyneside Metro. In International Railway Economics: Studies in Management and Efficiency. (pp. 177-208). Aldershot: Gower.
13. Garett, M. and Wachs, M. (1996) Transportation Planning on Trial: The Clean Air Act and Travel Forecasting. Thousand Oaks CA: Sage.
14. (2002) Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
15. Gordon, P. and Wilson, R. (1984) The determinants of light-rail transit demand: An international cross-sectional comparison Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 18A((2)), pp. 135-140.
16. Hall, P. (1980) Great Planning Disasters. Harmondsworth: Penguin.
17. Kahneman, D. (1994) New challenges to the rationality assumption Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics, 150, pp. 18-36.
18. Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (1979) Prospect theory: An analysis of decisions under risk Econometrica, 47, pp. 313-327.
19. Kain, J.F. (1990) Deception in Dallas: Strategic misrepresentation in rail transit promotion and evaluation Journal of the American Planning Association, 56((2)), pp. 184-196.
20. Leavitt, D. and Ennis, S. and McGovern, P. (1993) The Cost Escalation of Rail Projects: Using Previous Experience to Re-evaluate the CalSpeed Estimates. Berkeley CA: Institute of Urban and Regional Development, University of California. Working Paper No. 567
21. Lovallo, D. and Kahneman, D. (2003) Delusions of success: How optimism undermines executives' decisions Harvard Business Review (July), pp. 56 -63.
22. Mackinder, I.H. and Evans, S.E. (1981) The Predictive Accuracy of British Transportation Studies in Urban Areas. Crowthorne: Transportation and Road Research Laboratory. Supplementary Report No. 699
23. Maldonado, J. (1990) Strategic planning: An approach to improving airport planning under uncertainty. Cambridge MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Unpublished MS thesis
24. Mierzejewski, E.A. (1995) A New Strategic Urban Transportation Planning Process. Tampa: University of South Florida, Center for Urban Transportation Research.
25. National Audit Office. (1985) Department of Transportation Office: Expenditure on Motorways and Trunk Roads. London: NAO.
26. National Audit Office. (1988) Department of Transportation, Scottish Development Department and Welsh Office: Road Planning. Londona: HMSO.
27. National Audit Office. (1992) Department of Transportation: Contracting for Roads. London: NAO.
28. Pickrell, D.H. (1990) Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecast Versus Actual Ridership and Cost. Washington DC: US Department of Transportation.
29. Richmond, J.E.D. (1998) New Rail Transit Investments: A Review. Cambridge MA: John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.
30. Royal Town Planning Institute. (2001) Code of Professional Conduct, as last amended by the Council on 17 January 2001. available at:
31. Skamris, M.K. (1994) Large Transportation Projects: Forecast Versus Actual Traffic and Costs. Aalborg: Department of Development and Planning, Aalborg University. Report No. 151
32. Thompson, L.S. (1993) Trapped in the forecasts: An economic field of dreams TR News (no. 165).
33. Trafikministeriet, Finansministeriet and Sund & Bælt Holding, Ltd. (2002) Udredning af økonomien i A/S Øresundsforbindelsen (de danske anlæg). Copenhagen: TFSBH.
34. Vejdirektoratet. (1995) Notat om anlægsregnskaber. Copenhagen: Danish Road Directorate.
35. Wachs, M. (1986) Technique vs. advocacy in forecasting: A study of rail rapid transit Urban Resources, 4((1)), pp. 23-30.
36. Wachs, M. (1989) When planners lie with numbers Journal of the American Planning Association, 55((4)), pp. 476-479.
37. Wachs, M. (1990) Ethics and advocacy in forecasting for public policy Business and Professional Ethics Journal, 9((1-2)), pp. 141-157.
38. Walmsley, D.A. and Pickett, M.W. (1992) The Cost and Patronage of Rapid Transit Systems Compared with Forecasts. Crowthorne: Transportation Research Laboratory. Research Report No. 352
39. Watson, V. (2003) Conflicting rationalities: Implications for planning theory and ethics Planning Theory and Practice, 4, pp. 395-408.
40. Webber, M.M. (1976) The BART Experience: What Have We Learned?. Berkeley CA: Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California. Monograph No. 26
41. World Bank. (1986) Urban Transportation: A World Bank Policy Study. Washington DC: World Bank.
42. World Bank. (1994) World Development Report 1994: Infrastructure for Development. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
43. Yiftachel, O. (1998) Planning and social control: Exploring the dark side Journal of Planning Literature, 12((4)), pp. 395-406.