Derivation of transition probability matrices for pavement deterioration modeling

Journal of Transportation Engineering

Volumn 132, Issue 2, 2006, Pages 141-161

  Ortiz García, José J ^a   Costello, Seósamh B ^b   Snaith, Martin S ^c  

^a ATKINS   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF AUCKLAND   (New Zealand)

^c UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Deterioration; Markov chains; Optimization; Pavement management; Probabilistic methods

Indexed keywords

CURVE FITTING; DETERIORATION; MARKOV PROCESSES; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; MATRIX ALGEBRA; OPTIMIZATION; PROBABILITY;

PROBABILISTIC TECHNIQUES; REGRESSION CURVE; TRANSITION PROBABILITY MATRICES;

PAVEMENTS;

MODELING; PAVEMENT; PROBABILITY;

EID: 31044450968     PISSN: 0733947X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(2006)132:2(141)     Document Type: Article

References (14)

1. AASHTO. (1985). AASHTO guide for the design of pavements structures, AASHTO, Washington D.C.
2. Butt, A. A., Shahin, M. Y., Carpenter, S. H., and Carnahan, J. V. (1994). "Application of Markov process to PMS at network level." Proc., 3rd Int. Conf. on Managing Pavements, Vol. 2, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 159-172.
3. Costello, S. B., Ortiz-Garcia, J. J., and Snaith, M. S. (2005). "Development of the transition matrix calculator." Proc., 10th Int. Conf. on Civil, Structural, and Environmental Engineering Computing, Civil-Comp, Stirling, U.K.
4. Costello, S. B., Snaith, M. S., Kerali, H. G. R., Tachtsi, V. T., and Ortiz-Garcia, J. J. (2006). "Stochastic model for strategic assessment of road maintenance." Proc., Institution of Civil Engineers, Transport, in press.
5. Darter, M. I., and Hudson, W. R. (1973). "Probabilistic design concepts applied to flexible pavement system design." Rep. No. 123-18, Center for Highway Research, Univ. of Texas at Austin, Austin, Tex.
6. Fylstra, D., Lasdon, L., Watson, J., and Warren, A. (1998). "Design and use of the Microsoft Excel Solver." Interfaces ZZZZZZ0092-2102, 28(5), 29-55.
7. Isaacson D. L., and Madsen, R. W. (1976). Markov chains: Theory and applications, Wiley, New York.
8. Kerali, H. R., and Snaith, M. S. (1992). "NETCOM: The TRL visual condition model for road Networks." Contractor Rep. No. 321, Transport Research Laboratory, Crowthorne, U.K.
9. Kulkarni, R. B. (1984). "Dynamic decision model for a pavement management system." Transportation Research Record 997, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 11-18.
10. Li, N., Haas, R., and Xie, W. (1997). "Development of a new asphalt pavement performance prediction model." Can. J. Civ. Eng. CJCEB80315-1468, 24, 547-559.
11. Ortiz-García, J. J. (2000). "Strategic planning of highway maintenance: Condition standards and their assessment." PhD thesis, Univ. of Birmingham, Birmingham, U.K.
12. Paterson, W. D. O. (1987). "Road deterioration and maintenance effects: Models for planning and management." The Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Model (HDM-III), Vol. III, World Bank, Washington, D.C.
13. Robinson, R., Snaith, M. S., and Danielson, U. (1998). Road maintenance management: Concepts and systems, Macmillan, Basingstoke, U.K.
14. Thompson, P. D., Neumann, L. A., Miettinen, M., and Talvitie, A. (1987). "A micro-computer Markov dynamic programming system for pavement management in Finland." Proc., 2nd North American Conf. on Managing Pavements, Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Communications, Vol. 2, Toronto, 2.241-2.252.