Russia's demographic decline and the public reaction

Europe - Asia Studies

Volumn 57, Issue 7, 2005, Pages 951-968

  Shlapentokh, Vladimir ^a  

^a MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DEMOGRAPHIC TREND; POPULATION DYNAMICS;

EURASIA; RUSSIAN FEDERATION;

EID: 30644456581     PISSN: 09668136     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/09668130500301337     Document Type: Article

References (160)

1. See an interview with Anatolii Vishnevsky (a leading Russian demographer and director of the Centre for Demography and Ecology, Russian Academy of Sciences), Izvestiya, 26 April 2004.
2. Goskomstat Rossii, Rossiiskii Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik 1999 (Moscow, Goskomstat Rossii, 1999), pp. 54, 76.
3. Ibid., p. 54
4. Goskomstat Rossii, Rossiiskii Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik 2003 (Moscow, Goskomstat Rossii, 2003), p. 75.
5. See 'Comparative International Statistics', US Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2003, p. 843.
6. See 'Novyi ofitsial'nyi prognoz naseleniya Rossii', Demoskop Weekly, 12 February 2001
7. see also Viktor Perevendentsev, 'U kraya bratskoi mogily', Novoe vremya, 20 June 2004.
8. Goskomstat Rossii, Rossiiskii Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik 2004 (Moscow, Goskomstat Rossii, 2004), p. 677
9. Demoskop Weekly, 20 March 2005.
10. Viktor Perevedentsev, 'Zhivite dolgo', Novoe vremya, 18 January 2004.
11. US Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2003, p. 847.
12. Fund of Public Opinion, Bulletin, 24 May 2001.
13. See Anatolii Vishnevsky, 'Demograficheskii krizis v stranakh SNG', Demoskop Weekly, 17 April 2005.
14. 'V 2004 godu chislo umershikh i obshchii koeffitsient smertnosti vnov' nachal snizhat'sya', Demoskop weekly, 3 April 2005.
15. See Goskomstat Rossii, Rossiiskii Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik 2004 p. 677
16. Goskomstat Rossii, Rossiiskii Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik 1994 (Moscow, Goskomstat Rossii, 1994), p. 43
17. Goskomstat SSSR, Naselenie SSSR 1988 (Moscow, Finansy i Statistika, 1989), pp. 691-692.
18. Goskomstat Rossii, Rossiiskii Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik 2004, p. 121
19. 'V 2004 godu chislo umershikh i obshchii koeffitsient smertnosti vnov' nachal snizhat'sya', Demoskop weekly, 3 April 2005.
20. Natalya Rimashevskaya, 'Umirayut bol'she chem rozhdayutsya," Argumenty i Fakty, 2004, 22, p. 10.
21. Goskomstat Rossii, Rossiiskii Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik 2003, p. 658.
22. See Goskomstat, Narodnoe khozyaistvo SSSR v 1972 (Moscow, Statistika, 1973, p. 46
23. Goskomstat, Narodnoe khozyaistvo SSSR v 1978 (Moscow, Statistika, 1979).
24. Goskomstat Rossii, Rossiiskii Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik 2004, p. 123
25. 'V 2004 godu chislo umershikh i obshchii koeffitsient smertnosti vnov' nachal snizhat'sya', Demoskop weekly, 3 April 2005
26. Statistical Abstract of the United States reports that infant mortality in Russia in 2002 was 19.8 against 13.3 according to the Russian official data (US Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2003, p. 847).
27. Goskomstat Rossii, Rossiiskii Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik 2003, p. 120
28. Goskomstat, Narodnoe khozyaistvo SSSR 1989 (Moscow, Finansy i Statistika, 1990), p. 41
29. US Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2003, p. 847.
30. See Nicholas Eberstadt, 'The Emptying of Russia', Washington Post, 13 February 2004.
31. See his chapter in Igor Bestuzhev-Lada, Leonid Rybakovsky et al., Pochemu vymirayut russikie (Moscow, Eksmo, 2004).
32. See A. Nemtsov, Alkogol'naya smertnost' v Rossii. 1980-90 gody (Moscow, 2001);
33. see also A. Nemtsov, 'Alkogol'naya smertnost' v regionakh Rossii', Naselenie i obshchestvo, 2003, 78.
34. Ibid.
35. See Yulya Shestoperova, 'Pobeda vsukhuyu', Moskovskii Komsomolets, 6 May 2005
36. see also Putin's presidential address, 2005, http://President.Kremlin.ru.
37. Nemtsov, 'Alkogol'naya smertnost' v regionakh Rossii';
38. Murray Feshbach, Russia's Health and Demographic Crises: Policy Implications and Consequences (Washington, DC, Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute, 2003).
39. Tatyana Bateneva, 'Demografiya viditsya na rasstoyanii', Izvestiya, 7 June 2003.
40. See Ada Gorbacheva, 'Alkogolezavisimoe pokolenie', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 20 November 2002.
41. See Goskomstat Rossii, Rossiiskii Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik 2004, p. 507.
42. Mikhail Kruchkov, 'Nostalgiya po chasu volka', Novye Izvestiya, 20 May 2005.
43. See Goskomstat Rossii, Rossiiskii Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik 2003, pp. 481, 489.
44. Ibid., p. 192.
45. See 'Rynok vodki i likerovodochnykh izdelii v 2003', Kommersant Daily, 29 April 2004
46. Ada Gorbacheva, 'Alkogolezavisimoe pokolenie', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 20 November 2002
47. Evgeniya Obukhova, 'Levaya vodka opasna dlya zdorovya', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 25 June 2003
48. Elena Vladimirova, 'Na dvoikh ne razlivaetsya', Trud, 19 November 2003.
49. Goskomstat Rossii, Rossiiskii Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik 2003, p. 119.
50. Elena Kostyuk, 'Vozgonka po vertikali', Profil, 12 January 2004.
51. See Ada Gorbacheva, 'Alkogolezavisimoe naselenie', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 11 November 2004.
52. Goskomstat Rossii, Rossiiskii Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik 2003, p. 119
53. US Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2003.
54. Goskomstat Rossii, Rossiiskii Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik 2003, p. 119
55. US Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2003, p. 199.
56. Ibid.
57. 'O sostoyanii dorozhnoi bezopasnosti Rossiiskoi Federatsii', Rossiiskaya gazeta, 11 September 2003.
58. US Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2004-2005, p. 83
59. RIA Novosti, 8 April 2005.
60. See Denis Belikov, 'Tablitsa razmnozheniya', Moskovskii Komsomolets, 16 October 2003.
61. See WHO, The Tobacco Atlas, http://www.who.int.tobacco;
62. RIA Novosti, 31 May 2005.
63. Viktor Perevendentsev, 'U kraya bratskoi mogily', Novoe vremya, 20 June 2004.
64. Igor Bestuzhev-Lada, Leonid Rybakovsky et al., Pochemu vymirayut russkie (Moscow, Eksmo, 2004).
65. 'Rossiya ostanetsya bez russkikh', Komsomol'skaya Pravda, 4 and 6 May 2005.
66. Nail Gafutulin, 'Kollektivnoe samoubiistvo', Krasnaya zvezda, 4 June 2005.
67. See Anastas'ya Naryshkina, 'Razvitye strany ostayutsya v menshinstve', Vremya novostei, 10 December 2002.
68. Vladimir Kostakov, interview with Ekonomika i zhizn', 21 May 2005.
69. Viktor Perevendentsev, 'U kraya bratskoi mogily', Novoe vremya, 20 June 2004.
70. Among the pessimists is the leading Russian demographer Anatolii Vishnevsky, who strongly denies the possibility of influencing the birth rate and is sceptical about any measures taken to diminish the death rate (see an interview with him in Izvestiya, 26 April 2004). For a more optimistic view see Viktor Perevedentsev, 'Zhivite dolgo', Novoe vremya, 18 January 2004, and the economist from the Institute of Health Alla Ivanova (see Tat'yana Bateneva, 'Demografiya viditsya na rasstoyanii', Izvestiya, 7 June 2003).
71. See Goskomstat SSSR, Naselenie SSSR 1988, p. 114. Perevedentsev ascribed this trend to the 'decisions of the party and government', which introduced several measures to encourage childbirth ('Zhivite dolgo', Novoe vremya, 18 January 2004).
72. See also Julie Davanzo & Clifford Grammitch, Dire Demographics: Population Trend in the Russian Federation (Los Angeles, Rand Corporation, 2001).
73. See Goskomstat SSSR, Narodnoe khozyaistvo SSSR v 1991 (Moscow, Finansy i Statistika, 1991), p. 90
74. Goskomstat SSSR, Naselenie SSSR 1988, p. 58
75. see also Mariya Aleshina & Evgeniya Lenz, 'Demograficheskii sryv', Profil, 21 July 2003.
76. Egor Ligachev, 'Snaryad emkostyu 18 litrov', Sovetskaya Rossiya, 12 May 2005.
77. See 'Russkie opravdyvayut antialkogol'nuyu kampaniyu Gorbacheva', Novye Izvestiya, 20 May 2005.
78. See, for instance, Anton Surikov & Aleksandr Nagorny, 'Poslanie glukhogo k nemym', Zavtra, 2005, 17.
79. See Gennadii Zyuganov's interview with Zavtra, 2004, 25, p. 3.
80. See the resolution of the communist party congress, 'Kommunisty i russkii vopros', Sovetskaya Rossiya, 8 July 2004.
81. Aleksandr Prokhanov, 'FSB, 8 Iyulya 2004 uchredila 'orden Bakatina', Zavtra, 2004, 26.
82. Vladimir Malyshev, 'Byt' ili ne byt", Krasnaya zvezda, 1 June 2005.
83. Vladlen Sirotkin, 'Russkii vopros', Literaturnaya gazeta, 23 June 2004.
84. See http://president.kremlin.ru.
85. See Dmitrii Levosudov, 'Senatory ozabotilis' zdorov'em', Rossiiskie vesti, 24 September 2003
86. Elena Vansovich, 'Ot vymiraniya Rossiyu nichto ne spaset, dazhe nalog na bezdetnost', Kommersant Daily, 3 April 2003.
87. Viktor Perevedenstsev, 'Zhivite dolgo', Novoe vremya, 18 January 2004
88. Goskomstat Rossii, Rossiiskii Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik 2004, p. 180.
89. See also the seminar 'The demographic modernisation of Russia', headed by Anatolii Vishnevsky, a leading Russian demographer, Moscow, April 2001.
90. Elena Egorova, 'Bednye lyudi', Moskovskii Komsomolets, 25 May 2005.
91. See Goskomstat Rossii, Rossiiskii Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik 2003 p. 120
92. 'Nichego stolichnogo', Kommsersant Daily, 12 May 2004
93. Sergei Avedev et al., 'Tseny na nedvizhimost' rastut po vsei Rossii', Izvestiya, 31 January 2004.
94. See, for instance, the report that the governor of the Far East, in a solemn atmosphere, 'handed the keys to 128 young families' in the city of Vladivostok, which has a population of 592,000 (Dmitrii Rustamov, 'Molodye spravlyaut novoselie', Trud, 22 April 2004).
95. See Anna Amelkina, 'Plodites' i razmnozhaites', Izvestiya, 9 June 2004.
96. See Oksana Alekseeva, 'Beremennost' u rossiyanok dolzhna protekat' legche', Kommersant-Daily, 16 October 2002.
97. See strana.ru, 12 February 2004
98. Ekaterina Sokolovskaya, 'Zhizn' v Rossii nasyshchennaya, no korotkaya', Moskovskaya Pravda, 30 May 2005.
99. See, for instance, the survey by the Fund of Public Opinion, 'The major problems in Russia in light of the presidential address'. Though 20 problems were listed in the survey, concerns about the population were not mentioned at all (May 2004). Another public opinion firm, Romir, also did not include the demographic issue in the list of 21 problems that Russia faced in 2004 (http://romir.ru, May 2004). However, the All Union Centre of Public Opinion, as an exception, included in the list of 20 threats to Russia in its survey in May 2005 two demographic issues (VTsIOM, Press-Vypusk No. 208, 2005).
100. See, for instance, the open questions in the survey by the Fund of Public Opinion about people's wishes and hopes (7 July 2003), and the survey devoted to the presidential address (6 March 2004).
101. Indeed, the notion spread not only among the general public but also among Russian demographers that the trend in the Russian birth rate in the 1990s was not at all unique and was simply the continuation of the worldwide decline in the birth rate. This idea is challenged by the following facts: Having declined since 1960, when the rate was 23.2, the birth rate started to increase in 1969 (14.2 against 14.1 in the previous year) and with some deviations continued to grow until 1986, when it reached 17.2 (Goskomstat SSSR, Naselenie SSSR 1988, p. 58). In the 1990s several countries, such as the UK, Germany, Italy and the US, followed the same pattern, though in none of these countries was the decline so precipitous and in most of them the birth rate in 2002 was much higher than in Russia.
102. VTsIOM, Press-Vypusk, No, 208, 2005.
103. Goskomstat Rossii, Rossiiskii Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik 2003, p. 97
104. Natalya Konygina, 'Vsem rozhdat', Izvestiya, 20 August 2003.
105. Murray Feshbach, Russia's Health and Demographic Crises: Policy Implications and Consequences (Washington DC, Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute, 2003);
106. Inna Shkarbanova, 'Pravo na abort', Moskovskaya Pravda, 15 September 2003
107. Lisa Parkinson, 'Plach po dvum millionam', Konservator, 21 March 2003.
108. See http://nationamaster.com, Factoid No. 40
109. Inna Shkarbanova, 'Pravo na abort', Moskovskaya Pravda, 15 September 2003.
110. Oksana Alekseeva, 'Beremennost' u rossiyanok dolzhna protekat' legche', Kommersant-Daily, 16 October 2002.
111. See Natalya Konygina, 'Vsem rozhdat', Izvestiya, 20 August 2003.
112. See Levada Tsentr, Press-Vypusk, No. 18, 11 June 2003.
113. Parkinson, 'Plach po dvum millionam'.
114. See the interview with Anatolii Vishnevsky, Moskovskii Komsomolets, 16 October 2003.
115. 'Aborty do 14', Argumenty i fakty, 29 October 2003.
116. Goskomstat Rossii, Rossiiskii Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik 2003, p. 12
117. Goskomstat Rossii, Rossiiskii Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik 2004, p. 123
118. US Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2003, p. 72.
119. See Vremya novostei, 16 May 2005.
120. Fund of Public Opinion, Bulletin, 24 June 2004.
121. Levada-Tsentr, Press-vypusk, 8 August 2004.
122. See interview with Aleksandr Sinel'nikov, director of the project on divorce, Moskovskaya Pravda, 19 December 2003
123. see also similar data in Elena Berezina, 'Semeinoe poboishche', Moskovskii Komsomolets, 18 July 1998.
124. See Natalya Vedeneeva, 'Potreblenie produktov pitaniya na dushu naseleniya', Moskovskii Komsomolets, 18 June 2004.
125. See Russian TV, Channel One, Vremya, 12 June 2004.
126. See Aleksandr Tsipko, 'Est' li u nas budushchee', Literaturnaya gazeta, 27 July 2004
127. Larisa Danilina & Natalya Shipizyna, 'Kapitalist v razreze', Moskovskii Komsomolets, 30 July 2004.
128. Sara Lyall, 'British Worry that Drinking has Gotten Out of Hand', New York Times, 22 July 2004.
129. Gazeta.Ru., 15 April 2005.
130. Steven Lee Myers, 'As Russia Discovers Beer, Deputies Try to End the Binge', New York Times, 6 August 2004.
131. See Elena Kostyuk, 'Vozgonka po vertikali', Profil, 12 January 2004.
132. See Ada Gorbacheva, 'Alkogolezavisimoe naselenie', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 11 November 2004.
133. Igor Bogdanovich, 'Slepaya ekspertiza i zrimyi resul'tat', Trud, 25 June 2004
134. Pavel Moroz, 'Zavod 'Kristall' gotovit 'Putinka'', Gazeta, 24 October 2004.
135. See 'Razrushaet li P'yanstvo Rossiyu', Izvestiya, 20 May 2005.
136. http://President.Kremlin.ru.
137. See Russian TV, Channel, One, Vremya, 3 May 2005.
138. Vladimir Mukomel, 'Rossiiskie diskursy o migratsii', Vestnik obshchestvennogo mneniya, 2005, 1, pp. 48-57.
139. See Anna Amelkina, 'Stareem, umneem i pochti ne razmnozhaemsya', Izvestiya, 1 July 2004.
140. See RossBusinesKonsalting, 17 March 2005.
141. See interview with Anatolii Vishnevsky, Izvestiya, 26 April 2004
142. Viktor Perevedentsev, 'U kraya bratskoi mogily', Novoe vremya, 20 June 2004.
143. VTsIOM, Press-Vypusk No. 208, 2005.
144. See http://Romir.ru, August 2003.
145. See L. Presnyakova, ' "Chuzhie" v Rossii: Nezvanyi gost khuzhe', http://fom.ru, April 24, 2002.
146. See Aleksandr Nemtsov, 'Alkogol'naya smertnost' v regionakh Rossii', Naselenie i obshchestvo, No. 76, 2003.
147. Fund of Public Opinion, Bulletin, 24 April 2002.
148. See Andrei Shleifer & Daniel Treisman, 'A Normal Country', Foreign Affairs, March/April 2004.
149. See Vladimir Shlapentokh, 'Shleifer-Treisman's Economic Comparisons are Wrong', Johnson's List, No. 8091, 28 February 2004.
150. See http://hdr.undp.org/statistics/data/index_indicators.cfm
151. see also the data on GNP per head in the same countries in US Census Bureau, 2003, p. 851.
152. Ibid., p. 140.
153. See http://freedomhouse.com.
154. See http://www.transparency.org/pressreleases_archive/2003/ 2003.10.07.cpi.en.html.
155. See http://hdr.undp.org/statistics/data/index_indicators.cfm, p. 140.
156. See interview with Nazar Agakhanov, a Russian mathematician, Izvestiya, 24 July 2004.
157. Andrei Nikolaev, 'Torgovlya oruzhiem - prezhde vsego gosudarstvennaya politika', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 22 July 2003.
158. Elena Vansovich, 'Ot vymiraniya Rossiyu nichto ne spaset, dazhe nalog na bezdetnost', Kommersant Daily, 3 April 2003.
159. Sergei Kara-Murza, 'Razrukha v umakh i domakh', Literaturnaya gazeta, 13 July 2004.
160. Aleksandr Arkhangelsky, 'Stabilizets', Izvestiya, 13 July 2004.