Serious violence and dilemmas of sentencing: A comparison of three incapacitation policies

Criminal Law Review

Volumn 1998, Issue 10, 1998, Pages 710-722

  Brown, Mark ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 3042994243     PISSN: 0011135X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (23)

1. C. Mirrlees-Black, P. Mayhew and A. Percy, The 1996 British Crime Survey: England and Wales, Home Office Statistical Bulletin No. 19 (London: HMSO, 1996).
2. S. Triggs, Interpreting Trends in Recorded Crime in New Zealand (Wellington: Ministry of Justice, 1997).
3. ibid., p.59.
4. M. Brown, "Serious Offending and the Management of Public Risk in New Zealand" (1996) 36 B.J. Crim. 18-36.
5. For a more detailed comparison of Criminal Justice Act provisions in each jurisdiction and full results of an evaluation of the New Zealand legislation see ibid. at p. 19. Recent changes to the English provisions contained in the Crime (Sentences) Act 1997 are discussed by D. A. Thomas [1998] Crim.L.R. 83.
6. Sentencing Act 1991 (Victoria) as amended.
7. M. Brown, Decision Making in District Prisons Boards (Wellington: Department of Justice, 1992).
8. See n.4 above.
9. There has for some time been general provision for the increase of a sentence beyond that which would be justified by the circumstances of the offence for the purposes of public protection - see Ward [1976] 1 N.Z.L.R. 588. Provision also exists for offenders convicted of one or more of a certain limited group of offences to be required to serve the full term of their sentence (Criminal Justice Act 1985, s.105).
10. Serious violent offences are set out in the Criminal Justice Act 1985, s.2. An offender receiving a determinate sentence of two years or more for any of these offences (see the listing in Table 1 of this article) is subject to a different regime of penal conditions than "ordinary" offenders.
11. In a large study on offence specialisation S. D. Gottfredson and D. M. Gottfredson ("Behavioral Prediction and the Problem of Incapacitation" (1994) 32 Criminology 441-474) found little evidence for specialisation and that which did exist was strongest amongst nuisance offences (69 per cent of all identified specialists) followed by property offences) (17 per cent of all specialists).
12. R. M. Dawes, D. Faust, and P. E. Meehl, "Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgement" (1989) 243 Science 1668-1674; D. M. Gottfredson and M. Tonry, Prediction and Classification: Criminal Justice Decision Making (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1987).
13. R. M. Dawes, D. Faust, and P. E. Meehl, "Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgement" (1989) 243 Science 1668-1674; D. M. Gottfredson and M. Tonry, Prediction and Classification: Criminal Justice Decision Making (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1987).
14. If the idea of statistical aids to sentencing sounds heretical, bear in mind that probation officers in most Western jurisdictions now formulate court advice with the aid of actuarial recidivism prediction devices and that courts commonly either agree with or follow such advice. See for example C. E. Frazier and E. W. Bock, "Effects of Court Officials on Sentence Severity: Do Judges Make a Difference?" (1982) 20 Criminology 257-272; C. Rush and J. Robertson "The Utility of Information to the Sentencing Decision" (1987) 11 Law and Human Behavior 147-155.
15. If the idea of statistical aids to sentencing sounds heretical, bear in mind that probation officers in most Western jurisdictions now formulate court advice with the aid of actuarial recidivism prediction devices and that courts commonly either agree with or follow such advice. See for example C. E. Frazier and E. W. Bock, "Effects of Court Officials on Sentence Severity: Do Judges Make a Difference?" (1982) 20 Criminology 257-272; C. Rush and J. Robertson "The Utility of Information to the Sentencing Decision" (1987) 11 Law and Human Behavior 147-155.
16. Details of the statistical analysis are available from the author on request.
17. "Jackknife" classification was used, allowing N-1 of the sample to be used to test the accuracy of each model's linear classification function.
18. Loeber and Dishion's relative improvement over chance statistic (RIOC) indicated a 12.4 per cent improvement over chance or naive prediction. See R. Loeber and T. Dishion, "Early predictors of male delinquency: a review" (1983) 94 Psychological Bulletin 68-99.
19. For example, random classification on the basis of the 8 per cent base-rate under criterion C would involve classifying on average every 12th or 13th offender a serious offender.
20. A. Blumstein, J. Cohen, J. A. Roth and C. A. Visher (eds) Criminal Careers and "Career Criminals" (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1986), F. Zimring and G. Hawkins Incapacitation: Penal Confinement and the Restraint of Crime (New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1995).
21. A. Blumstein, J. Cohen, J. A. Roth and C. A. Visher (eds) Criminal Careers and "Career Criminals" (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1986), F. Zimring and G. Hawkins Incapacitation: Penal Confinement and the Restraint of Crime (New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1995).
22. R. Hood and S. Shute, "Protecting the Public: Life Sentences, Parole and High Risk Offenders" [1996] Crim.L.R. 788-800.
23. See n.10.