Fiji's tourism demand: The ARDL approach to cointegration

Tourism Economics

Volumn 10, Issue 2, 2004, Pages 193-206

  Narayan, Paresh Kumar ^a  

^a GRIFFITH UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

Author keywords

Cointegration; Error correction models; Fiji; Tourism demand

Indexed keywords

COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS; ERROR CORRECTION; MARKET CONDITIONS; TOURISM MARKET;

FIJI; MELANESIA; PACIFIC ISLANDS; PACIFIC OCEAN;

EID: 3042785884     PISSN: 13548166     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5367/000000004323142425     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. ABC World Airways Guide/OAG World Airways Guide, (various issues), Red Book, Reed Publishers, London.
2. Brown, R.L., Durbin, J., and Evans, J.M. (1975), 'Techniques for resting the constancy of regression relationships over time', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, Vol 37, pp 149-192.
3. Cavanagh, C., Elliott, G., and Stock, J.H. (1995), 'Inference in models with nearly integrated regressors', Econometric Theory, pp 1131-1147.
4. Chan, N.H., and Wei, C.Z. (1988), 'Limiting distributions of least squares estimates of unstable autoregressive processes', Annals of Statistics, Vol 16, pp 367-401.
5. Crouch, G.I. (1994), 'The study of international tourism demand: a survey of practice', Journal of Travel Research, Vol 32, No 4, pp 41-57.
6. Engle, R.F., and Granger, C.W.J. (1987), 'Cointegration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing', Econometrica, Vol 55, pp 251-276.
7. Eviews 4.1 (2002), Quantitative Micro Software, Irvine, CA.
8. Granger, C.W.J. (1986), 'Development in the study of cointegrated economic variables', Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol 48, pp 213-228.
9. Hendry, D., Pagan, A., and Sargan, J. (1984), 'Dynamic specification', in Griliches, Z., and Intriligator, M., eds, Handbook of Econometrics, Vol II, North Holland, Amsterdam, chapter 18.
10. Johansen, S. (1991), 'Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models', Econometrica, Vol 59, pp 1551-1580.
11. Johansen, S. (1995), Likelihood Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
12. King, B., and McVey, M. (1997), 'Hotel investment in the South Pacific', Travel and Tourism Analyst, Vol 5, pp 63-87.
13. Kulendran, N. (1996), 'Modelling quarterly tourist flows to Australia using cointegration analysis', Tourism Economics, Vol 2, No 3, pp 203-222.
14. Kulendran, N., and King, M.L. (1997), 'Forecasting international quarterly tourist flows using error correction and time series models', International Journal of Forecasting, Vol 13, pp 319-327.
15. Lee, C., Var, T., and Blain, T.W. (1996), 'Determinants of inbound tourist expenditures', Annals of Tourism Research, Vol 23, No 3, pp 527-542.
16. Lim, C. (1997), 'An econometric classification and review of international tourism demand models', Tourism Economics, Vol 3, No 1, pp 69-81.
17. Lim, C., and McAleer, M. (2001), 'Cointegration analysis of quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia', Applied Economics, Vol 33, pp 1599-1619.
18. Loeb, P.D. (1982), 'International travel to the United States: an econometric evaluation', Annals of Tourism Research, Vol 9, pp 7-20.
19. Ministry of Tourism, (1997), Fiji Tourism Development Plan 1998-2005, Ministry of Tourism, Suva.
20. Narayan, P.K. (2000), 'Fiji's tourism industry: a SWOT analysis', Journal of Tourism Studies, Vol 11, No 2, pp 110-112.
21. Park, J.Y. (1990), 'Testing for unit roots and cointegration by variable addition', Advances in Econometrics, Vol 8, pp 107-133.
22. Pesaran M.H., and Shin Y. (1995), 'Autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis', DAE Working Paper Series No 9514, Department of Economics, University of Cambridge.
23. Pesaran M.H., Shin Y., and Smith R. (1996), 'Testing the existence of a long-run relationship', DAE Working Paper Series No 9622, Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge.
24. Pesaran, M.H., and Pesaran, B. (1997), Microfit 4.0, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
25. Pesaran, M.H. (1997), 'The role of economic theory in modelling the long run', Economic Journal, Vol 107, pp 178-191.
26. th Century: the Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, chapter 11.
27. Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R.J. (2001), 'Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships', Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol 16, pp 289-326.
28. Phillips, P.C.B., and Ouliaris, S. (1990), 'Asymptotic properties of residual based tests for cointegration', Econometrica, Vol 58, pp 165-193.
29. Prasad, B.C., and Tisdell, C.A. (1998), 'Tourism in Fiji: its economic development and property rights', in C.A. Tisdell, C.A., and K. Roy, K., eds, Tourism and Development: Economic, Social, Political and Environmental Issues, Nova Science Publishers, New York.
30. Reserve Bank of Fiji (2002), Reserve Bank of Fiji Quarterly, Reserve bank of Fiji, Suva.
31. Seddighi, H.D., and Shearing, D.F. (1997), 'The demand for tourism in North East England with special reference to Northumbria: an empirical analysis', Tourism Management, Vol 18, No 8, pp 499-511.
32. Shin, Y. (1994), 'A residual based test of the null of cointegration against the alternative of no cointegration', Econometric Theory, Vol 10, pp 91-115.
33. Stock, J.H., and Watson, M.W. (1988), 'Testing for common trends', Journal of American Statistical Association, Vol 83, pp 1097-1107.
34. Tourism Council of the South Pacific, (1992), Economic Impact of Tourism in Fiji, Tourism Council of the South Pacific, Suva.
35. World Bank , (1995), Fiji: Resolving Growth in a Changing Global Environment, World Bank, Washington, DC.
36. WTO (2001), World Tourism Highlights, www.worldtourism.org, World Tourism Organization, Madrid.