Turnout participation and legitimacy in post-devolution Wales

British Journal of Political Science

Volumn 34, Issue 3, 2004, Pages 519-537

  Scully, Roger ^b   Jones, Richard Wyn ^b   Trystan, Dafydd ^a  

^a ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^b NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 3042782952     PISSN: 00071234     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S000712340400016X     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. For a discussion of turnout in the 2001 British general election that touches on some of these themes, see Harold Clarke. David Sanders, Marianne Stewart and Paul Whiteley, 'Britain (Not) at the Polls, 2001' (Working Paper, available at: www.essex.ac.uk/bes/Papers/pollsrev.pdf); for an excellent recent comparative account of trends in voter turnout and potential explanations, see André Blais, To Vote or Not to Vote? (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 2000).
2. For a discussion of turnout in the 2001 British general election that touches on some of these themes, see Harold Clarke. David Sanders, Marianne Stewart and Paul Whiteley, 'Britain (Not) at the Polls, 2001' (Working Paper, available at: www.essex.ac.uk/bes/Papers/pollsrev.pdf); for an excellent recent comparative account of trends in voter turnout and potential explanations, see André Blais, To Vote or Not to Vote? (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 2000).
3. This argument was often made in the wake of the 2001 British general election, when the only part of the United Kingdom in which voter turnout increased was Northern Ireland.
4. Between 1945 and 2001 turnout in Wales was on average 2.8 per cent higher than turnout across the United Kingdom.
5. Jonathan Bradbury, David Denver and Iain MacAllister, 'The State of Two Nations: An Analysis of Voting in the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly Elections 1999', Representation, 37 (2000), 5-18, p. 9.
6. See, for example, Patrick Dunleavy, Evidence to the House of Commons Select Committee on Public Administration, 15 March 2000.
7. On 'second order' elections, see Karlheinz Reif and Hermann Schmitt, 'Nine Second Order Elections: A Conceptual Framework for the analysis of European Election Results', European Journal of Political Research, 8 (1980), 3-44; Cees van der Eijk and Mark Franklin, eds, Choosing Europe? The European Electorate and National Politics in the Face of Union (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996).
8. On 'second order' elections, see Karlheinz Reif and Hermann Schmitt, 'Nine Second Order Elections: A Conceptual Framework for the analysis of European Election Results', European Journal of Political Research, 8 (1980), 3-44; Cees van der Eijk and Mark Franklin, eds, Choosing Europe? The European Electorate and National Politics in the Face of Union (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996).
9. The 1999 Welsh Assembly Election Survey was funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC Grant No. R000 23 8070). It was conducted by the Institute of Welsh Politics at the University of Wales, Aberystwyth, in collaboration with the Centre for Research into Elections and Social Trends. The fieldwork for the Survey was undertaken by the National Centre for Social Research. The Survey was co-directed by Richard Wyn Jones and Anthony Heath.
10. For an interesting recent exchange on this issue, see Daniel Lazare, 'America the Undemocratic', New Left Review, 232(1998), 3-40; Michael Lind, 'Why There Will Be No Revolution in the US: A Reply to Daniel Lazare', New Left Review, 233 (1999), 97-117; and Daniel Lazare, 'The Grand Illusion of Democratic Nationalism: A Reply to Michael Lind', New Left Review, 235 (1999), 135-52.
11. For an interesting recent exchange on this issue, see Daniel Lazare, 'America the Undemocratic', New Left Review, 232(1998), 3-40; Michael Lind, 'Why There Will Be No Revolution in the US: A Reply to Daniel Lazare', New Left Review, 233 (1999), 97-117; and Daniel Lazare, 'The Grand Illusion of Democratic Nationalism: A Reply to Michael Lind', New Left Review, 235 (1999), 135-52.
12. For an interesting recent exchange on this issue, see Daniel Lazare, 'America the Undemocratic', New Left Review, 232(1998), 3-40; Michael Lind, 'Why There Will Be No Revolution in the US: A Reply to Daniel Lazare', New Left Review, 233 (1999), 97-117; and Daniel Lazare, 'The Grand Illusion of Democratic Nationalism: A Reply to Michael Lind', New Left Review, 235 (1999), 135-52.
13. See Carole Pateman, Participation and Democratic Theory (Cambridge; Cambridge University Press, 1970).
14. On the first two groups, see Pateman, Participation and Democratic Theory; for the latter see William E. Scheuerman, Between the Norm and the Exception: The Frankfurt School and the Rule of Law (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1994).
15. On the first two groups, see Pateman, Participation and Democratic Theory; for the latter see William E. Scheuerman, Between the Norm and the Exception: The Frankfurt School and the Rule of Law (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1994).
16. Pateman, Participation and Democratic Theory, p. 14.
17. Cited in Pateman, Participation and Democratic Theory, p. 30.
18. Ron Davies, Devolution: A Process Not an Event (Cardiff: Institute of Welsh Affairs, 1999), p. 15.
19. Peter Hain, A Welsh Third Way? (London: Tribune Publication, 1999) passim, but especially pp. 14-15.
20. See National Assembly Advisory Group, National Assembly for Wales: Have Your Say in How It Will Work (Consultation Paper), (Cardiff: Welsh Office, 1998); I. B. Rees, 'Cynulliad Cenedlaethol: "Plus ça change" ynteu Cychwyn Proses', Contemporary Wales, 12 (1999), 107-29.
21. See National Assembly Advisory Group, National Assembly for Wales: Have Your Say in How It Will Work (Consultation Paper), (Cardiff: Welsh Office, 1998); I. B. Rees, 'Cynulliad Cenedlaethol: "Plus ça change" ynteu Cychwyn Proses', Contemporary Wales, 12 (1999), 107-29.
22. See Jonathan Bradbury, David Denver, James Mitchell and Lynn Bennie, 'Devolution and Party Change: Candidate Selection for the 1999 Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly Elections', Journal of Legislative Studies, 6 (2000), 51-72.
23. For the most penetrating account of the constitutional settlement, see Richard Rawlings, 'New Model Wales', Journal of Law and Society, 25 (1998) 461-509.
24. Our three hypotheses are not, of course, a comprehensive set of potential explanations for voter turnout at the NAW election. Indeed, some of our independent variables could be seen as linked not only to the hypotheses specified but also to other common explanations of electoral participation - such as 'rationalist' and 'habitual' explanations, However, the purpose of the analysis here is not a comprehensive explanation of turnout per se, but rather to assess the implications of turnout for the legitimacy of devolution in Wales.
25. Anthony Heath and Bridget Taylor, 'New Sources of Abstention?' in Geoffrey Evans and Pippa Norris, eds, Critical Elections: British Parties and Voters in Long-Term Perspective (London: Sage, 1999); Charles Pattie and Ron Johnston, 'Voter Turnout at the British General Election of 1992: Rational Choice, Social Standing or Political Efficacy?' European Journal of Political Research, 33 (1998) 263-83; Charles Pattie and Ron Johnston, 'A Low Turnout Landslide: Abstention at the British General Election of 1997', Political Studies, 49 (2001), 286-305.
26. Anthony Heath and Bridget Taylor, 'New Sources of Abstention?' in Geoffrey Evans and Pippa Norris, eds, Critical Elections: British Parties and Voters in Long-Term Perspective (London: Sage, 1999); Charles Pattie and Ron Johnston, 'Voter Turnout at the British General Election of 1992: Rational Choice, Social Standing or Political Efficacy?' European Journal of Political Research, 33 (1998) 263-83; Charles Pattie and Ron Johnston, 'A Low Turnout Landslide: Abstention at the British General Election of 1997', Political Studies, 49 (2001), 286-305.
27. Anthony Heath and Bridget Taylor, 'New Sources of Abstention?' in Geoffrey Evans and Pippa Norris, eds, Critical Elections: British Parties and Voters in Long-Term Perspective (London: Sage, 1999); Charles Pattie and Ron Johnston, 'Voter Turnout at the British General Election of 1992: Rational Choice, Social Standing or Political Efficacy?' European Journal of Political Research, 33 (1998) 263-83; Charles Pattie and Ron Johnston, 'A Low Turnout Landslide: Abstention at the British General Election of 1997', Political Studies, 49 (2001), 286-305.
28. Responses received from Labour identifiers to an open-ended question concerning reasons for not voting included sentiments like: 'I didn't feel anybody represented my socialistic Labour feelings', and 'Don't like Alun Michael'.
29. Perceptions on the importance of British general elections were measured directly via a question which asked respondents whether they thought it 'Makes a difference who wins elections to the House of Commons'. Responses were coded on a five-point scale running from 'Strongly agree', through 'Agree, 'Neither agree nor disagree', 'Disagree' and 'Strongly disagree'. In the analysis reported in Tables 3 and 4, the latter four response categories are entered as a series of dummy variables, coded T if a respondent gave this response, '0' otherwise.
30. For further examination of the applicability of 'second-order' approaches to the NAW election, focusing on the dynamics of party choice among those who did vote, see Dafydd Trystan, Richard Wyn Jones and Roger Scully, 'Explaining the Quiet Earthquake: Voting Behaviour in the First Election to the National Assembly for Wales', Electoral Studies, 22 (2003), 635-50; for an investigation of the applicability of second order theory to the understanding of the 1997 devolution referendums in Wales and Scotland, see Anthony Heath and Bridget Taylor, 'Were the Welsh and Scottish Referendums Second-Order Elections?' in Bridget Taylor and Katarina Thomson, eds, Scotland and Wales: Nations Again? (Cardiff: University of Wales Press, 1999), pp. 149-68.
31. For further examination of the applicability of 'second-order' approaches to the NAW election, focusing on the dynamics of party choice among those who did vote, see Dafydd Trystan, Richard Wyn Jones and Roger Scully, 'Explaining the Quiet Earthquake: Voting Behaviour in the First Election to the National Assembly for Wales', Electoral Studies, 22 (2003), 635-50; for an investigation of the applicability of second order theory to the understanding of the 1997 devolution referendums in Wales and Scotland, see Anthony Heath and Bridget Taylor, 'Were the Welsh and Scottish Referendums Second-Order Elections?' in Bridget Taylor and Katarina Thomson, eds, Scotland and Wales: Nations Again? (Cardiff: University of Wales Press, 1999), pp. 149-68.
32. A very substantial proportion of the Welsh population live in so-called 'cross-over' areas (generally near the border with England), where they can choose to receive terrestrial television output from either Welsh or English transmitters. Between 25 per cent and 30 per cent of respondents consistently report receiving their television output from transmitters outside Wales and thus do not watch Welsh regional programmes that cover Welsh politics in some detail; there is, of course, minimal coverage of Welsh politics in news programmes broadcast to the United Kingdom as a whole.
33. The political knowledge scores run from 0 to 4, and comprise an additive index based on respondents' answers to questions concerning the tax, budget and defence powers (or lack thereof) of the National Assembly, and the voting system employed for the Assembly elections. Respondents score '1' for each correct answer, '0' otherwise. Unfortunately, the knowledge quiz was only administered to part of the WAES sample (those interviewed face-to-face, as opposed to those interviewed by telephone), and multivariate analysis that includes this variable therefore loses large numbers of cases. Consequently, we report (binomial and multinomial) logit analyses both with and without this variable.
34. Perceptions on the importance of NAW elections were measured directly via a question which paralleled that on British general elections, i.e. respondents were asked whether they thought it 'Makes a difference who wins elections to the National Assembly for Wales'. The response categories, and specification of variables in the models reported, are identical to that for the British general elections question (see fn. 21).
35. Western Mail, 8 May 1999, p. 5.
36. See Richard Wyn Jones and Dafydd Trystan, 'The 1997 Welsh Referendum Vote', in Taylor and Thomson, eds, Scotland and Wales, pp. 65-93.
37. As explained earlier, Labour identifiers might have had a specific reason for not voting in the context of the 1999 NAW election, namely disillusion engendered by the Michael/Morgan leadership contest.
38. The Moreno scale was developed initially in the Spanish context and was subsequently applied in Scotland by Luis Moreno - see Luis Moreno, 'Scotland and Catalonia: The Path to Home Rule', in David McCrone and Alice Brown, eds, The Scottish Government Yearbook (Edinburgh: Unit for the Study of Government in Scotland, 1988), pp. 166-81. Moreno's scale is a particularly appropriate method of measuring national identity in contexts where there are significant degrees of overlap between competing identities.
39. The analysis here thus excludes a small number of voters (N = 44) who report having voted in the NAW election but not doing so for the previous Westminster poll. The use of data on how voters recall behaving two years prior to the NAW election has certain inherent problems. However, there are good reasons for believing that these problems are not excessive for our current purposes. Voter turnout in May 1997 is over-reported, but by no greater degree than it is for May 1999.
40. There is a vast empirical literature examining factors shaping electoral turnout. For good general discussions, see, in the American context, Steven J. Rosenstone and John Mark Hansen, Mobilization, Participation and Democracy in America (New York: Macmillan, 1993); in European Parliament elections, Jean Blondel, Richard Sinnott and Falle Svensson, People and Parliament in the European Union: Participation, Democracy and Legitimacy (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1998), and in British general elections, Pattie and Johnston 'Voter Turnout' and 'A Low Turnout Landslide', and Heath and Taylor, 'New Sources of Abstention'.
41. There is a vast empirical literature examining factors shaping electoral turnout. For good general discussions, see, in the American context, Steven J. Rosenstone and John Mark Hansen, Mobilization, Participation and Democracy in America (New York: Macmillan, 1993); in European Parliament elections, Jean Blondel, Richard Sinnott and Falle Svensson, People and Parliament in the European Union: Participation, Democracy and Legitimacy (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1998), and in British general elections, Pattie and Johnston 'Voter Turnout' and 'A Low Turnout Landslide', and Heath and Taylor, 'New Sources of Abstention'.
42. There is a vast empirical literature examining factors shaping electoral turnout. For good general discussions, see, in the American context, Steven J. Rosenstone and John Mark Hansen, Mobilization, Participation and Democracy in America (New York: Macmillan, 1993); in European Parliament elections, Jean Blondel, Richard Sinnott and Falle Svensson, People and Parliament in the European Union: Participation, Democracy and Legitimacy (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1998), and in British general elections, Pattie and Johnston 'Voter Turnout' and 'A Low Turnout Landslide', and Heath and Taylor, 'New Sources of Abstention'.
43. There is a vast empirical literature examining factors shaping electoral turnout. For good general discussions, see, in the American context, Steven J. Rosenstone and John Mark Hansen, Mobilization, Participation and Democracy in America (New York: Macmillan, 1993); in European Parliament elections, Jean Blondel, Richard Sinnott and Falle Svensson, People and Parliament in the European Union: Participation, Democracy and Legitimacy (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1998), and in British general elections, Pattie and Johnston 'Voter Turnout' and 'A Low Turnout Landslide', and Heath and Taylor, 'New Sources of Abstention'.
44. On gender differences in turnout, see, for example, Pattie and Johnston, 'A Low Turnout Landslide'.
45. Further socio-demographic variables were considered for inclusion in the model. However, variables related to housing status made a minimal explanatory contribution, and data on household income is not available in WAES. For a number of reasons we also do not include a measure of electoral marginality, which has sometimes been suggested as associated with greater turnout (see, for example, David Denver and Gordon Hands, 'Marginality and Turnout in Elections in the 1970s', British Journal of Political Science, 15 (1985), 381-8. WAES does not include specific measures of voter perceptions of the closeness of the electoral contest; it is, anyway, not entirely clear how voters would understand the concept of electoral marginality in relation to the mixed-member electoral system used in the NAW poll; and, furthermore, Pattie and Johnston, 'Voter Turnout at the British General Election of 1992', find that constituency-level associations between marginality and turnout are insignificant once individual voter characteristics are controlled for.
46. Further socio-demographic variables were considered for inclusion in the model. However, variables related to housing status made a minimal explanatory contribution, and data on household income is not available in WAES. For a number of reasons we also do not include a measure of electoral marginality, which has sometimes been suggested as associated with greater turnout (see, for example, David Denver and Gordon Hands, 'Marginality and Turnout in Elections in the 1970s', British Journal of Political Science, 15 (1985), 381-8. WAES does not include specific measures of voter perceptions of the closeness of the electoral contest; it is, anyway, not entirely clear how voters would understand the concept of electoral marginality in relation to the mixed-member electoral system used in the NAW poll; and, furthermore, Pattie and Johnston, 'Voter Turnout at the British General Election of 1992', find that constituency-level associations between marginality and turnout are insignificant once individual voter characteristics are controlled for.
47. The analyses in Tables 3 and 4 report unstandardized logistic regression coefficients. Although - unlike with OLS coefficients - the substantive interpretation of such estimates in terms of probability changes is notoriously difficult, the principal interest in the analysis here is in the strength and direction of relationships with the dependent variables, not in the absolute values implied by the coefficients.
48. As a further check on the robustness of our results, we re-ran the model for voted/not voted without the party dummies. This made minimal differences to the findings other than reducing the goodness-of-fit measure.
49. Another classic example is the European Parliament, would-be 'Voice of the People' in the EU, but largely a failure in generating any sense of connection to or public involvement in the politics of the EU. See Blondel et al., People and Parliament in the European Union; and Roger Scully, 'Democracy, Legitimacy and the European Parliament', in Maria Green Cowles and Michael Smith, eds, The State of the European Union, Vol. 5: Risks, Reform, Resistance and Revival (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000), pp. 228-45.
50. Another classic example is the European Parliament, would-be 'Voice of the People' in the EU, but largely a failure in generating any sense of connection to or public involvement in the politics of the EU. See Blondel et al., People and Parliament in the European Union; and Roger Scully, 'Democracy, Legitimacy and the European Parliament', in Maria Green Cowles and Michael Smith, eds, The State of the European Union, Vol. 5: Risks, Reform, Resistance and Revival (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000), pp. 228-45.