Simultaneous modelling of multiple traffic safety performance indicators by using a multivariate generalized linear mixed model

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society

Volumn 167, Issue 3, 2004, Pages 501-517

  Bailey, Trevor C ^a   Hewson, Paul J ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF EXETER   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Generalized linear mixed model; Markov chain Monte Carlo methods; Multivariate modelling; Performance indicators; Road casualties; Traffic safety

Indexed keywords

EID: 3042749575     PISSN: 09641998     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2004.0apm7.x     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Aitchison, J. and Ho, C. H. (1989) The multivariate Poisson-log normal distribution. Biometrika, 76, 643-653.
2. Bhattacharya, S. (1967) A result on accident proneness. Biometrika, 54, 324-325.
3. Bull, J. and Roberts, B. (1973) Road accident statistics - a comparison of police and hospital information. Accid. Anal. Prevn, 5, 45-53.
4. Cabinet Office (2000) Wiring It Up. London: Cabinet Office.
5. Chib, S. and Winkelmann, R. (2001) Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis of correlated count data. J. Bus. Econ. Statist., 19, 428-435.
6. Congdon, P. (2001) Bayesian Statistical Modelling. Chichester: Wiley.
7. Cryer, P., Westrup, S., Cook, A., Ashwell, V., Bridger, P. and Clarke, C. (2001) Investigation of bias after data linkage of hospital admissions data to police road crash reports. Inj. Prevn, 7, 234-241.
8. Department of Health (1999) Saving Lives: Our Healthier Nation. London: Department of Health.
9. Department for Transport (2001) Road Accidents Great Britain. London: Department for Transport.
10. Department for Transport, Local Government and the Regions (1997) The Road Traffic Reduction Act 1997. London: Department for Transport, Local Government and the Regions.
11. Department for Transport, Local Government and the Regions (1998) A New Deal for Transport: Better for Everyone. London: Department for Transport, Local Government and the Regions.
12. Department for Transport, Local Government and the Regions (1999) Local Government Act 1999. London: Department for Transport, Local Government and the Regions.
13. Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S. and Rubin, D. B. (2003) Bayesian Data Analysis. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
14. Goldstein, H. and Myers, K. (1996) Freedom of Information: towards a code of ethics in performance indicators. Res. Intell., 57, 12-16.
15. Goldstein, H. and Spiegelhalter, D. J. (1996) League tables and their limitations: statistical issues in comparisons of institutional performance (with discussion). J. R. Statist. Soc. A, 159, 385-443.
16. Gueorguieva, R. (2001) A multivariate generalized linear mixed model for joint modelling of clustered outcomes in the exponential family. Statist. Modllng, 1, 177-193.
17. Hinde, J. (1982) Compound Poisson regression models. In GLIM 82 (ed. R. Gilchrist), pp. 109-121. New York: Springer.
18. James, H. (1991) Underreporting of road traffic accidents. Traffic Engng Control, 32, 574-583.
19. Joe, H. and Xu, J. J. (1996) The estimation method of inference functions for margins for multivariate models. Technical Report. Department of Statistics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver.
20. Keigan, M., Broughton, J. and Tunbridge, R. J. (1999) Linkage of STATs 19 and Scottish Hospital In-patient data - analysis for 1980-1995. Report TRL420. Transport Research Laboratory, Crowthorne.
21. Lawless, G. F. (1987) Negative binomial and mixed Poisson regression. Can. J. Statist., 15, 209-225.
22. Lee, Y. and Nelder, J. A. (1996) Hierarchical generalized linear models (with discussion). J. R. Statist. Soc. B, 58, 619-678.
23. MacNab, Y C. (2003) A Bayesian hierarchical model for accident and injury surveillance. Accid. Anal. Prevn, 35, 91-102.
24. Marshall, E. C. and Spiegelhalter, D. J. (1998) Reliability of league tables of in vitro fertilisation clinics; retrospective analysis of live birth rates. Br. Med. J., 316, 1701-1705.
25. McCullagh, P. and Nelder, J. A. (1989) Generalized Linear Models, 2nd edn. London: Chapman and Hall.
26. Morris, C. and Christiansen, C. (1996) Hierarchical models for ranking and for identifying extremes, with applications. In Bayesian Statistics 5 (eds J. M. Bernardo, J. O. Berger, A. P. Dawid and A. F. M. Smith), pp. 277-296. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
27. Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (2003) Best Value Performance Indicators. London: Office of the Deputy Prime Minister. (Available from www.odpm.gov.uk.)
28. Papageorgiou, H. and Loukas, S. (1988) On estimating the parameters of a bivariate model applicable to traffic accidents. Biometrics, 44, 495-504.
29. Parliamentary Advisory Council for Transport Safety (2003) Best Value, Local Transport Plans and Road Safety. London: Parliamentary Advisory Council for Transport Safety.
30. Smith, P. (1990) The use of performance indicators in the public sector. J. R. Statist. Soc. A, 153, 53-72.
31. Spiegelhalter, D. J., Aylin, P., Best, N. G., Evans, S. J. and Murray, G. D. (2002) Commissioned analysis of surgical performance using routine data: lessons from the Bristol inquiry (with discussion). J. R. Statist. Soc. A, 165, 191-231.
32. Spiegelhalter, D. J., Best, N. G., Carlin, B. P. and van der Linde, A. (2002) Bayesian measures of complexity and fit (with discussion). J. R. Statist. Soc. B, 64, 583-639.
33. Spiegelhalter, D., Thomas, A. and Best, N. (1998) WinBUGS version 1.1.1 user manual. Technical Report. Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge.
34. Stone, M. (2002) How not to measure the efficiency of public services (and how one might). J. R. Statist. Soc. A, 165, 405-434.
35. Tunaru, R. (1999) Hierarchical Bayesian models for road accident data. Traff. Engng Control, 40, 318-324.
36. Vistisen, D. (2002) A consistent method for estimating the effect of hot spot safety work. Traff. Engng Control, 43, 96-100.
37. Vogt, A. and Bared, I G. (1998) Accident models for two-lane rural roads: segments and intersections. Report FHWA-RD-98-133. National Transportation Library, Washington DC.
38. Wilding, P. (2002) The 2002 quality review of road accident statistics. In Road Accidents Great Britain 2001: the Casualty Report, pp. 32-37. London: Department for Transport.
39. Woodward, A. (1983) Time trends in motorcycle accidents in Britain. J. Epidem. Commty Hlth, 37, 66-69.