메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 6, Issue , 2002, Pages 409-453

Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - Illustrated by the case of Norway

Author keywords

Forecasting

Indexed keywords


EID: 3042672674     PISSN: 14359871     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.4054/demres.2002.6.15     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (91)

References (47)
  • 1
    • 25944443401 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Constructing probability distributions of population forecasts
    • Unpublished note, Statistics Netherlands, Department of Population, 3 September 1977
    • Alders, M. (1997). Constructing probability distributions of population forecasts. Unpublished note, Statistics Netherlands, Department of Population, 3 September 1977.
    • (1997)
    • Alders, M.1
  • 2
    • 0032037553 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "Kansverdeling van de bevolkingsprognose"
    • Alders, M. and J. de Beer (1998). "Kansverdeling van de bevolkingsprognose" ("Probability distribution of population forecasts")., Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking 46: 8-11.
    • (1998) Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking , vol.46 , pp. 8-11
    • Alders, M.1    de Beer, J.2
  • 3
    • 0025528426 scopus 로고
    • "Stochastic methods in population forecasting"
    • Alho, J. M. (1990). "Stochastic methods in population forecasting", International Journal of Forecasting 6: 521-530.
    • (1990) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.6 , pp. 521-530
    • Alho, J.M.1
  • 4
    • 0030642418 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "Scenarios, uncertainty, and conditional forecasts of the world population"
    • Alho, J.M. (1997). "Scenarios, uncertainty, and conditional forecasts of the world population". Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A 160, Part 1, 71-85.
    • (1997) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A , vol.160 , Issue.PART 1 , pp. 71-85
    • Alho, J.M.1
  • 5
    • 0042748042 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A stochastic forecast of the population of Finland
    • Statistics Finland, Helsinki
    • Alho, J. M. (1998). A stochastic forecast of the population of Finland. Reviews 1998/4. Statistics Finland, Helsinki.
    • (1998) Reviews 1998/4
    • Alho, J.M.1
  • 6
    • 3042856215 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Experiences from the forecasting of mortality in Finland
    • Paper National Social Insurance Board, Committee for Mortality Projections meeting, Stockholm, June 2001
    • Alho, J. M. (2001). Experiences from the forecasting of mortality in Finland. Paper National Social Insurance Board, Committee for Mortality Projections meeting, Stockholm, June 2001.
    • (2001)
    • Alho, J.M.1
  • 9
    • 0024430752 scopus 로고
    • "Conjoncture et structure dans le comportement de fécondité"
    • Bonneuil, N. (1989). "Conjoncture et structure dans le comportement de fécondité".Population 44(1): 135-157.
    • (1989) Population , vol.44 , Issue.1 , pp. 135-157
    • Bonneuil, N.1
  • 10
    • 0003944842 scopus 로고
    • Introduction to stochastic processes
    • New York: Wiley
    • Chiang, C.L. (1968). Introduction to stochastic processes. New York: Wiley.
    • (1968)
    • Chiang, C.L.1
  • 11
    • 0022669556 scopus 로고
    • "Population forecasts and confidence intervals for Sweden: A comparison of model-based and empirical approaches"
    • Cohen, J. (1986). "Population forecasts and confidence intervals for Sweden: A comparison of model-based and empirical approaches" Demography 23: 105- 126.
    • (1986) Demography , vol.23 , pp. 105-126
    • Cohen, J.1
  • 12
    • 3042582059 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "The effect of uncertainty of migration on national population forecasts: The case of the Netherlands"
    • De Beer, J. (1997). "The effect of uncertainty of migration on national population forecasts: The case of the Netherlands" Journal of Official Statistics 13: 227- 243.
    • (1997) Journal of Official Statistics , vol.13 , pp. 227-243
    • De Beer, J.1
  • 13
    • 24944528060 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "Probabilistic population and household forecasts for the Netherlands"
    • Working Paper nr. 45, Joint ECE-Eurostat Work Session on Demographic Projections, Perugia, Italy, 3-7 May 1999
    • De Beer, J. and M. Alders (1999). "Probabilistic population and household forecasts for the Netherlands" Working Paper nr. 45, Joint ECE-Eurostat Work Session on Demographic Projections, Perugia, Italy, 3-7 May 1999.
    • (1999)
    • De Beer, J.1    Alders, M.2
  • 14
    • 3042856213 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Projections of population, education, labour supply, and public pension benefits: Analyses with the dynamic microsimulation model MOSART
    • Social and Economic Studies 101 Oslo: Statistics Norway. Internet www.ssb.no/emner/02/03/sos101/sos101.pdf (30 April 2002)
    • Fredriksen, D. (1998). Projections of population, education, labour supply, and public pension benefits: Analyses with the dynamic microsimulation model MOSART. Social and Economic Studies 101. Oslo: Statistics Norway. Internet www.ssb.no/emner/02/03/sos101/sos101.pdf (30 April 2002).
    • (1998)
    • Fredriksen, D.1
  • 15
    • 0004147042 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "Ein probabilistischer Ansatz zur Bevölkerungs-vorausschätzung für Österreich"
    • 1997
    • Hanika, A., W. Lutz and S. Scherbov (1997). "Ein probabilistischer Ansatz zur Bevölkerungs-vorausschätzung für Österreich" Statistische Nachrichten 12/1997: 984-988.
    • (1997) Statistische Nachrichten , vol.12 , pp. 984-988
    • Hanika, A.1    Lutz, W.2    Scherbov, S.3
  • 17
    • 0000496873 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "Ex-post errors in official population forecasts in industrialized countries"
    • Keilman, N. (1997). "Ex-post errors in official population forecasts in industrialized countries" Journal of Official Statistics 13: 245-277.
    • (1997) Journal of Official Statistics , vol.13 , pp. 245-277
    • Keilman, N.1
  • 19
    • 0034122929 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "Predictive intervals for age-specific fertility"
    • Keilman, N. and D.Q. Pham (2000). "Predictive intervals for age-specific fertility" European Journal of Population.16: 41-66.
    • (2000) European Journal of Population , vol.16 , pp. 41-66
    • Keilman, N.1    Pham, D.Q.2
  • 20
    • 3042586860 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Norway's uncertain demographic future
    • Social and Economic Studies 105. Oslo: Statistics Norway. Internet www.ssb.no/english/subjects/ 02/03/sos105_en (30 April 2002)
    • Keilman, N., D. Q. Pham, and A. Hetland (2001). Norway's uncertain demographic future. Social and Economic Studies 105. Oslo: Statistics Norway. Internet www.ssb.no/english/subjects/ 02/03/sos105_en (30 April 2002).
    • (2001)
    • Keilman, N.1    Pham, D.Q.2    Hetland, A.3
  • 21
    • 0019697606 scopus 로고
    • "The limits of population forecasting"
    • Keyfitz, N. (1981). "The limits of population forecasting" Population and Development Review 7: 579-593.
    • (1981) Population and Development Review , vol.7 , pp. 579-593
    • Keyfitz, N.1
  • 22
    • 3042855089 scopus 로고
    • "A probability representation of future population"
    • Keyfitz, N. (1985). "A probability representation of future population" Zeitschrift fur Bevölkerungswissenschaft 11: 179-191.
    • (1985) Zeitschrift fur Bevölkerungswissenschaft , vol.11 , pp. 179-191
    • Keyfitz, N.1
  • 23
    • 3042733054 scopus 로고
    • "Demografische toekomstbeelden van Nederland"
    • 1988
    • Kuijsten, A. (1988). "Demografische toekomstbeelden van Nederland" Bevolking en Gezin 1988/2: 97-130.
    • (1988) Bevolking En Gezin , vol.2 , pp. 97-130
    • Kuijsten, A.1
  • 24
    • 0016097785 scopus 로고
    • "Forecasting births in post-transition populations: Stochastic renewal with serially correlated fertility"
    • Lee, R. (1974). "Forecasting births in post-transition populations: Stochastic renewal with serially correlated fertility" Journal of the American Statistical Association 69: 607-617.
    • (1974) Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol.69 , pp. 607-617
    • Lee, R.1
  • 25
    • 0027652326 scopus 로고
    • "Modeling and forecasting the time series of US fertility: Age distribution, range, and ultimate level"
    • Lee, R. (1993). "Modeling and forecasting the time series of US fertility: Age distribution, range, and ultimate level" International Journal of Forecasting 9: 187-202.
    • (1993) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.9 , pp. 187-202
    • Lee, R.1
  • 27
    • 84950967036 scopus 로고
    • "Stochastic population forecasts for the United States: Beyond High, Medium, and Low"
    • Lee, R. and S. Tuljapurkar (1994). "Stochastic population forecasts for the United States: Beyond High, Medium, and Low" Journal of the American Statistical Association 89: 1175-1189.
    • (1994) Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol.89 , pp. 1175-1189
    • Lee, R.1    Tuljapurkar, S.2
  • 28
    • 3042856214 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Population forecasting for fiscal planning: Issues and Innovation
    • A. Auerbach and R. Lee (eds.). Cambridge University Press
    • Lee, R. and S. Tuljapurkar (2001). Population forecasting for fiscal planning: Issues and Innovation. Pp. 7-57 in A. Auerbach and R. Lee (eds.). Demographic change and fiscal policy. Cambridge University Press.
    • (2001) Demographic Change and Fiscal Policy , pp. 7-57
    • Lee, R.1    Tuljapurkar, S.2
  • 29
  • 30
    • 0031705627 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "An expert-based framework for probabilistic national population projections: The example of Austria"
    • Lutz, W. and S. Scherbov (1998a). "An expert-based framework for probabilistic national population projections: The example of Austria" European Journal of Population 14: 1-17.
    • (1998) European Journal of Population , vol.14 , pp. 1-17
    • Lutz, W.1    Scherbov, S.2
  • 31
    • 0004167579 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "Probabilistische Bevölkerungsprognosen für Deutschland"
    • Lutz, W. and S. Scherbov (1998b). "Probabilistische Bevölkerungsprognosen für Deutschland" ("Probabilistic population projections for Germany") Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft 23: 83-109.
    • (1998) Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft , vol.23 , pp. 83-109
    • Lutz, W.1    Scherbov, S.2
  • 32
    • 0035797408 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "The end of world population growth"
    • Lutz, W., W. Sanderson, and S. Scherbov (2001). "The end of world population growth", Nature 412: 543-545.
    • (2001) Nature , vol.412 , pp. 543-545
    • Lutz, W.1    Sanderson, W.2    Scherbov, S.3
  • 33
    • 85021699898 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Beyond six billion: Forecasting the world's population.
    • National Research Council - Panel on Population Projections NRC John Bongaarts and Rodolfo Bulatao (eds.). Washington DC: National Academy Press
    • National Research Council - NRC (2000). Beyond six billion: Forecasting the world's population. Panel on Population Projections. John Bongaarts and Rodolfo Bulatao (eds.). Committee on Population, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington DC: National Academy Press.
    • (2000) Committee on Population, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
  • 34
    • 3042852788 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "Eldres sykehusbruk på 90-tallet: 16 prosent av befolkningen - halvparten av sykehusforbruket"
    • SINTEF rapport STF78 A99527. Trondheim: SINTEF Unimed
    • Paulsen, B., B. Kalseth, and A. Karstensen (1999). "Eldres sykehusbruk på 90-tallet: 16 prosent av befolkningen - halvparten av sykehusforbruket". SINTEF rapport STF78 A99527. Trondheim: SINTEF Unimed.
    • (1999)
    • Paulsen, B.1    Kalseth, B.2    Karstensen, A.3
  • 35
    • 0022505315 scopus 로고
    • "Stochastische Bevölkerungsmodelle zur Analyse der Auswirkungen demographischer Prozesse auf die Systeme der sozialen Sicherung"
    • Pflaumer, P. (1986). "Stochastische Bevölkerungsmodelle zur Analyse der Auswirkungen demographischer Prozesse auf die Systeme der sozialen Sicherung" Allg. Statist. Archiv 70: 52-74.
    • (1986) Allg. Statist. Archiv. , vol.70 , pp. 52-74
    • Pflaumer, P.1
  • 36
    • 0023842446 scopus 로고
    • "Confidence intervals for population projections based on Monte Carlo methods"
    • Pflaumer, P. (1988). "Confidence intervals for population projections based on Monte Carlo methods" International Journal of Forecasting 4: 135-142.
    • (1988) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.4 , pp. 135-142
    • Pflaumer, P.1
  • 38
    • 0029332130 scopus 로고
    • "Predictability, complexity, and catastrophe in a collapsible model of population, development, and environmental interactions"
    • Sanderson, W. (1995). "Predictability, complexity, and catastrophe in a collapsible model of population, development, and environmental interactions" Mathematical Population Studies 5: 233-279.
    • (1995) Mathematical Population Studies , vol.5 , pp. 233-279
    • Sanderson, W.1
  • 39
    • 3042858711 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Framskriving av folkemengden 1996-2050
    • Statistics Norway Norges offisielle statistikk C414. Oslo: Statistisk sentralbyrå
    • Statistics Norway (1997). Framskriving av folkemengden 1996-2050 ("Population projections 1996-2050"). Norges offisielle statistikk C414. Oslo: Statistisk sentralbyrå.
    • (1997)
  • 40
    • 3042855090 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "Continued population growth. Population projections. National and regional figures, 1999-2050"
    • Statistics Norway Internet www.ssb.no/english/subjects/02/03/folkfram_en (30 April 2002)
    • Statistics Norway (1999). "Continued population growth. Population projections. National and regional figures, 1999-2050". Internet www.ssb.no/english/subjects/02/03/folkfram_en (30 April 2002).
    • (1999)
  • 41
    • 3042813350 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Framskriving av folkemengden 1999-2050
    • Statistics Norway Norges offisielle statistikk C693. Oslo: Statistisk sentralbyrå. Internet www.ssb.no/emner/02/03/nos_c693/nos_c693.pdf (30 April 2002)
    • Statistics Norway (2001). Framskriving av folkemengden 1999-2050 ("Population projections 1999-2050"). Norges offisielle statistikk C693. Oslo: Statistisk sentralbyrå. Internet www.ssb.no/emner/02/03/nos_c693/nos_c693.pdf (30 April 2002).
    • (2001)
  • 43
    • 3042680053 scopus 로고
    • "Norske befolkningsframskrivinger 1969-1990"
    • O. Ljones, B. Moen, and L. Østby (eds.). Oslo/Kongsvinger: Statistics Norway
    • Texmon, I. (1992). "Norske befolkningsframskrivinger 1969-1990" ("Norwegian population projections 1969-1990". pp. 285-311 in O. Ljones, B. Moen, and L. Østby (eds.). Mennesker og Modeller. Oslo/Kongsvinger: Statistics Norway.
    • (1992) Mennesker og Modeller , pp. 285-311
    • Texmon, I.1
  • 45
    • 3042771561 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "Uncertainty in demographic projections: Methods and meanings"
    • Paper Sixth Annual Conference on Applied and Business Demography. Bowling Green, 19-21 September 1996
    • Tuljapurkar, S. (1996). "Uncertainty in demographic projections: Methods and meanings" Paper Sixth Annual Conference on Applied and Business Demography. Bowling Green, 19-21 September 1996.
    • (1996)
    • Tuljapurkar, S.1
  • 46
    • 0034660649 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries"
    • Tuljapurkar, S., N. Li, and C. Boe (2000). "A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries@quot; Nature 405, 15 June 2000: 789-792.
    • (2000) Nature , vol.405 , pp. 789-792
    • Tuljapurkar, S.1    Li, N.2    Boe, C.3
  • 47
    • 25944450458 scopus 로고
    • "Om de synspunkter, som bestämt valet av de primäre prognosantagendena"
    • J. Hyppolä A. Tunkelo, and L. Törnqvist Statistiska Meddelanden nr. 38. Helsinki: Statistiska Centralbyrån (in Swedish and Finnish)
    • Törnqvist, L. (1949). "Om de synspunkter, som bestämt valet av de primäre prognosantagendena" ("On the points of view that determined the choice of the main forecast assumptions") pp. 69-75 in J. Hyppolä A. Tunkelo, and L. Törnqvist Beräkninger rörende Finlands befolkning, dess reproduktion och framtida utveckling Statistiska Meddelanden nr. 38. Helsinki: Statistiska Centralbyrån (in Swedish and Finnish)
    • (1949) Beräkninger rörende Finlands befolkning, dess reproduktion och framtida utveckling , pp. 69-75
    • Törnqvist, L.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.