Geographic prediction of human onset of West Nile virus using dead crow clusters: An evaluation of year 2002 data in New York State

American Journal of Epidemiology

Volumn 163, Issue 2, 2006, Pages 171-180

  Johnson, Glen D ^a,b   Eidson, Millicent ^a,b   Schmit, Kathryn ^a   Ellis, April ^a   Kulldorff, Martin ^c  

^a NEW YORK STATE DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH   (United States)

^b STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK   (United States)

^c HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL   (United States)

Author keywords

Arboviruses; Geographic information systems; Poisson distribution; Population surveillance; Proportional hazards models; Space time clustering; West Nile virus; Zoonoses

Indexed keywords

VIRUS;

ADULT; ARTICLE; CONTROLLED STUDY; CROW; DISEASE ASSOCIATION; DISEASE SURVEILLANCE; GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION; GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM; HAZARD ASSESSMENT; HEALTH SURVEY; HIGH RISK POPULATION; HUMAN; INFECTION RISK; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; NONHUMAN; POISSON DISTRIBUTION; POPULATION RISK; PREDICTION; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK FACTOR; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; WEST NILE FLAVIVIRUS; ZOONOSIS;

ANIMALS; BIRD DISEASES; CLUSTER ANALYSIS; CROWS; DISEASE RESERVOIRS; HUMANS; NEW YORK; POISSON DISTRIBUTION; POPULATION SURVEILLANCE; PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS MODELS; WEST NILE FEVER; WEST NILE VIRUS;

ARBOVIRUS; CORVUS BRACHYRHYNCHOS; WEST NILE VIRUS;

EID: 30344439134     PISSN: 00029262     EISSN: 14766256     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwj023     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. Morse DL. West Nile virus - not a passing phenomenon. N Engl J Med 2003;348:2173-4.
2. Turell MJ, Sardelis MR, Dohm DJ, et al. Potential North American vectors of West Nile virus. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2001;951:317-24.
3. Outbreak of West Nile-like viral encephalitis - New York, 1999. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 1999;48:845-9.
4. Update: West Nile virus activity - Eastern United States, 2000. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2000;49:1044-7.
5. Eidson M, Kramer L, Stone W, et al. Dead bird surveillance as an early warning system for West Nile virus. Emerg Infect Dis 2001;7:631-5.
6. Gotham IJ, Eidson M, White DJ, et al. West Nile virus: a case study in how New York State health information infrastructure facilitates preparation and response to disease outbreaks. J Public Health Manag Pract 2001;7:79-89.
7. Andrle RF, Carroll JR, eds. The atlas of breeding birds in New York State. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1988.
8. Eidson M, Komar N, Sorhage F, et al. Crow deaths as a sentinel surveillance system for West Nile virus in the northeastern United States, 1999. Emerg Infect Dis 2001;7:615-20.
9. Eidson M, Miller J, Kramer L, et al. Dead crow densities and human cases of West Nile virus, New York State, 2000. Emerg Infect Dis 2001;7:662-4.
10. Julian KG, Eidson M, Kipp AM, et al. Early season crow mortality as a sentinel for West Nile virus disease in humans, northeastern United States. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis 2002;2:145-55.
11. Mostashari F, Kulldorff M, Hartman JJ, et al. Dead bird clusters as an early warning system for West Nile virus activity. Emerg Infect Dis 2003;9:641-6.
12. Theophilides CN, Ahearn SC, Grady S, et al. Identifying West Nile virus risk areas: the dynamic continuous-area space-time system. Am J Epidemiol 2003;157:843-54.
13. Kulldorff M. A spatial scan statistic. Communications Stat Theory Methods 1997;26:1481-96.
14. Knox GE. The detection of space-time interactions. J R Stat Soc (C) 1964;13:25-9.
15. Bailey TC, Gatrell AC. Interactive spatial data analysis. Essex, United Kingdom: Longman Scientific and Technical, 1995.
16. Watson JT, Jones RC, Gibbs K, et al. Dead crow reports and location of human West Nile virus cases, Chicago, 2002. Emerg Infect Dis 2004;10:938-40.
17. MapInfo Corporation. MapMarker, version 8.0. Troy, NY: MapInfo Corporation, 2002.
18. Encephalitis or meningitis, arboviral (includes California serogroup, Eastern equine, St. Louis, Western equine, West Nile, Powassan). Atlanta, GA: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, (http://www.cdc.gov/epo/dphsi/ casedef/encephalitiscurrent.htm).
19. Kulldorff M, Information Management Services, Inc. SaTScan: software for the spatial, temporal, and space-time scan statistics, version 6.0. 2005. (http://www.satscan.org/).
20. Recuenco S, Eidson M, Schmit KJ, et al. Cluster detection for forecasting West Nile virus human cases. Presented at the 131st Annual Meeting of American Public Health Association, San Francisco, California, November 15-19, 2003. (http://apha.confex.com/apha/131am/techprogram/paper_53079.htm).
21. MapInfo Corporation. Vertical Mapper, version 3.0. User guide. Troy, NY: MapInfo Corporation, 2003.
22. MapInfo Corporation. MapInfo Professional, version 7.5. User guide. Troy, NY: MapInfo Corporation, 2003.
23. US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water. Wetlands and West Nile virus. (EPA 843-F-04-010, August 2004). (http://www.epa.gov/owow/wetlands/ pdf/WestNile_pr. pdf).
24. Petersen LR, Marfin AA. West Nile virus: a primer for the clinician. Ann Intern Med 2002;137:173-9.
25. McCullagh P, Nelder JA. Generalized linear models. London, United Kingdom: Chapman and Hall, 1989.
26. Campbell GL, Marfin AM, Lanciotti RS, et al. West Nile virus. Lancet Infect Dis 2002;2:519-29.
27. Cox DR. Regression models and life tables (with discussion). J R Stat Soc (B) 1972;34:187-220.
28. Efron B. The efficiency of Cox's likelihood function for censored data. J Am Stat Assoc 1977;72:557-65.
29. Collett D. Modeling survival data in medical research. Boca Raton, FL: Chapman and Hall/CRC, 1994.
30. Patil GP, Taillie C. Upper level set scan statistic for detecting arbitrarily shaped hotspots. Environ Ecol Stat 2004;11:183-97.
31. Duczmal L, Assuncao RM. A simulated annealing strategy for the detection of arbitrarily shaped spatial clusters. Comp Stat Data Anal 2004;45:269-86.
32. Tango T, Takahashi K. A flexibly shaped spatial scan statistic for detecting clusters. Int J Health Geog 2005;4:11.
33. Callas PW, Pastides H, Hosmer DW. Empirical comparisons of proportional hazards, Poisson and logistic regression modeling of occupational cohort data. Am J Ind Med 1998;33:33-47.
34. Laird N, Olivier D. Covariance analysis of censored survival data using log-linear analysis techniques. J Am Stat Assoc 1981;76:231-40.
35. Ma R, Krewski D, Burnett RT. Random effects Cox models: a Poisson modeling approach. Biometrika 2003;90:157-69.
36. Ruiz MO, Tedesco C, McTighe T, et al. Environmental and social determinants of human risk during a West Nile virus outbreak in the greater Chicago area, 2002. Int J Health Geogr 2004;3:8.
37. Rogers DJ, Myers MF, Tucker CJ, et al. Predicting the distribution of West Nile fever in North America using satellite sensor data. Photogram Eng Remote Sens 2002;68:112-14.
38. Shaman J, Day JF, Stieglitz M. Drought-induced amplification of Saint Louis encephalitis virus, Florida. Emerg Infect Dis 2002;8:575-80.
39. Gould LH, Fikrig E. West Nile virus: a growing concern? J Clin Invest 2004;113:1102-7.
40. Valero N. West Nile virus: a new challenge? Invest Clin 2003;44:175-7.
41. West Nile virus activity - United States, June 16-22, 2004. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2004;53:535-6.