The unrecognised French BSE epidemic

Veterinary Research

Volumn 35, Issue 3, 2004, Pages 349-362

  Supervie, Virginie ^a   Costagliola, Dominique ^a  

^a INSERM   (France)

Author keywords

Back calculation; BSE; Epidemiology; Under reporting; vCJD

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BOVINE SPONGIFORM ENCEPHALOPATHY; CALCULATION; CATTLE DISEASE; CLINICAL STUDY; CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; CONTROLLED STUDY; DISEASE PREDISPOSITION; EPIDEMIC; EXPOSURE; FRANCE; HEALTH SURVEY; INCIDENCE; INCUBATION TIME; INFECTION RISK; METHODOLOGY; MORTALITY; NONHUMAN; PROBABILITY; STATISTICAL MODEL; STATISTICAL PARAMETERS;

ANIMALS; CATTLE; ENCEPHALOPATHY, BOVINE SPONGIFORM; FRANCE; MASS SCREENING; MODELS, STATISTICAL;

ANIMALIA; BOS TAURUS; BOVINAE;

EID: 2942635084     PISSN: 09284249     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1051/vetres:2004016     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Agence Française de Sécurité Sanitaire de l'Alimentation (AFSSA), Épidémiosurveillance de l'ESB en France. Tableau de bord au 28/02/02, in: AFSSA Documents.
2. AFSSA, Liste des cas ESB en France au 08/01/04, in: AFSSA Documents (9 January 2004) http://www.afssa.fr/ftp/basedoc/CaslESB040108.pdf [consulted 26 January 2004].
3. AFSSA, Farines et graisses d'origine animale, in: AFSSA Documents http://www.afssa.fr/dossiers/index.asp?id_dossier=4029 [consulted 22 September 2003].
4. Agence Française de Sécurité Sanitaire des Produits de Santé. (AFSSAPS), Révision des mesures de ré duction du risque de transmission des ESST par les produits sanguins, in: AFSSAPS Documents http://agmed.sante.gouv.fr/pdf/6/nvmcj.pdf [consulted 22 September 2003].
5. Alperovitch A., Will R.G., Predicting the size of the vCJD epidemic in France, C. R. Acad. Sci. III-Vie 325 (2002) 33-36.
6. Anderson R.M., Donnelly C.A., Ferguson N.M., Woolhouse M.E., Watt C.J., Udy H.J., MaWhinney S., Dunstan S.P., Southwood T.R., Wilesmith JW., Ryan J.B., Hoinville L.J., Hillerton J.E., Austin A.R., Wells G.A., Transmission dynamics and epidemiology of BSE in British cattle, Nature 382 (1996) 779-788.
7. Becker N.G., Marschner I.C., A method for estimating the age-specific relative risk of HIV infection AIDS incidence data, Biometrika 80 (1993) 165-178.
8. Bizet J., Dériot G., Farines : l'alimentation animale au cœur de la sécurité sanitaire Tome 1, in: Senat information reports 2000-2001 http://www.senat.fr/rap/r00-321-1/r00-321-1.html [consulted 22 September 2003].
9. Brookmeyer R., Gail M.H., A method for obtaining short-term projections and lower bounds on the size of the AIDS epidemic, J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 83 (1988) 301-308.
10. Bruce M.E., Will R.G., Ironside JW., McConnell I., Drummond D., Suttle A., McCardle L., Chree A., Hope J., Birkett C., Cousens S., Fraser H., Bostock C.J., Transmissions to mice indicate that "new variant" CJD is caused by the BSE agent, Nature 389 (1997) 498-501.
11. Burnham K., Anderson D., Information theory and Log-likelihood: Akaike's Information Criterion, in: Model selection and inference: A practical information-Theoretic approach, Springer-Verlag, New York, 1998, pp. 43-48.
12. Calavas D., Ducrot C., Programme pilote de surveillance de l'ESB. Enquête clinique retrospective concernant les bovins positifs, in: Afssa documents (22 may 2000) http://www.afssa.fr/ftp/basedoc/annexe2esb3Omai.pdf (AFSSA, Maison-Alfort, 2001).
13. Cohen C.H., Valleron A.J., When did bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) start? Implications on the prediction of a new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (nvCJD) epidemic, Int. J. Epidemiol. 28 (1999) 526-531.
14. Cuenot M., Calavas D., Abrial D., Gasqui P., Cazeau G., Ducrot C., Temporal and spatial patterns of the clinical surveillance of BSE in France, analysed from January 1991 to May 2002 through a vigilance index, Vet. Res. 34 (2003) 261-272.
15. Dempster A.P., Laird N.M., Rubin D.B., Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the EM algorithm (with discussion), J. R. Stat. Soc. B 39 (1977) 1-38.
16. Department of health, monthly Creutzfeldt Jakob Disease statistics, in: What's New (5 January 2004) http://www.info.doh.gov.uk/doh/intpress.nsf/page/2004-0004?OpenDocument [consulted 26 January 2004].
17. Deuffic S., Costagliola D., Is the AIDS incubation time changing? A back-calculation approach, Stat. Med. 18 (1999) 1031-1047.
18. DGAL, Bilan du Service public de l'équarrissage de l'année, 2000.
19. Donnelly C.A., BSE in France: epidemiological analysis and predictions, C. R. Acad. Sci. III-Vie 325 (2002) 793-806.
20. Donnelly C.A.. Likely size of the French BSE epidemic, Nature 408 (2000) 787-788.
21. Efron B., The jackknife, the bootstrap, and other resampling plans, SIAM, Philadelphia, 1982.
22. Ferguson N.M., Donnelly C.A., Assessment of the risk posed by bovine spongiform encephalopathy in cattle in Great Britain and the impact of potential changes to current control measures, Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. 270 (2003) 1579-1584.
23. Ferguson N.M., Donnelly C.A., Woolhouse M.E.J., Anderson R.M., The epidemiology of BSE in cattle herds in Great Britain. II. Model construction and analysis of transmission dynamics, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. 352 (1997) 803-838.
24. Ghani A.C., Donnelly C.A., Ferguson N.M., Anderson R.M., The transmission dynamics of BSE and vCJD, C. R. Acad. Sci. III-Vie 325 (2002) 37-47.
25. Ghani A.C., Ferguson N.M., Donnelly C.A., Anderson R.M., Factors determining the pattern of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) epidemic in the UK, Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. 270 (2003) 689-698.
26. Hill A.F., Desbruslais M., Joiner S., Sidle K.C.L., Gowland O., Collinge J.. The same prion causes vCJD and BSE, Nature 389 (1997) 448-450.
27. Huillard d'Aignaux J.N., Cousens S.N., Smith P.G., Predictability of the UK variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease epidemic, Science 294 (2001) 1729-1731.
28. Institut de veille sanitaire, Nombre de cas de maladie de Creutzfeldt-Jakob, in: Surveillance, Données du Réseau national de surveillance de la Maladie de Creutzfeldt-Jakob et maladies apparentées (2 September 2003) http://www.invs.sante.fr/display/?doc=publications/mcj/donees_mcj.html [consulted 22 September 2003].
29. Office national Interprofessionnel des Viandes, de l'Élevage et de l'Aviculture, cahier statistique bovin no 36, in: OFIVAL statistic http://www.ofival.fr/statistiques/statistique1.htm [consulted in January 2003].
30. The European Union, Report on the assessment of the Geographical BSE-Risk of France (July 2000) http://europa.eu.int/comm/food/fs/sc/ssc/outl19_en.pdf [consulted 22 September 2003].
31. Valleron A.J., Boelle P.Y., Will R., Cesbron J.Y., Estimation of epidemic size and incubation time based on age characteristics of vCJD in the United Kingdom, Science 294 (2001) 1726-1728.
32. Wilesmith J.D., Wells G.A.H., Ryan J.B.M., Gavier-Widen D., Simmons M.M., A cohort study to examine maternally-associated risk factors for bovine spongiform encephalopathy, Vet. Rec. 141 (1997) 239-243.
33. Will R.G., Ironside JW., Zeidler M., Cousens S.N., Estibeiro K., Alperovitch A., Poser S., Pocchiari M., Hofman A., Smith P.G., A new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the UK, Lancet 347 (1996) 921-925.