China and Central Asia: A new Great Game or traditional vassal relations?

Journal of Contemporary China

Volumn 14, Issue 45, 2005, Pages 569-584

  Swanström, Niklas ^a,b  

^a UPPSALA UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^b JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

GEOPOLITICS; INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION; INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS; POLITICAL PROCESS;

ASIA; CENTRAL ASIA; CHINA; EURASIA; FAR EAST;

EID: 29344436842     PISSN: 10670564     EISSN: 14699400     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/10670560500205001     Document Type: Article

References (107)

1. Henceforth when dealing with Chinese policy towards Central Asia, the region will, to a great extent, be dealt with as a single unit. Central Asia is, however, far from a heterogeneous unit and the Central Asian states loathe being dealt with as a kind of Central Asian porridge. Chinese foreign policy can, however, to a large extent, be seen as a regional policy as Beijing is dealing with the region increasingly through SCO and has, in many cases, lumped the Central Asian republics together. The Chinese focus on SCO threatens to exclude Turkmenistan, which is not a member of SCO, and China's relations with Turkmenistan are in practice few and of little significance. More problematic is that the regional approach diminishes China's relations with Kazakhstan (economically) and Kyrgyzstan (militarily) which are very significant bilateral relations. These bilateral approaches will, however, be noted in the text, but the fact that China to a large extent views the Central Asian republics as a region is still apparent. See China's Foreign Affairs (Beijing: Department of Policy Planning, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, PRC, 2003), pp. 62-63
2. Zhongguo Waijiao (Beijing: Zhonghua Renmingongheguo Waijiaobu, Shijie Zhishi Zhufashe, 2003), pp. 302-303.
3. Niklas Swanström, 'China and Xinjiang after September 11', Nordic Institute for Asian Studies no. 3, (2002).
4. Dilip Hiro, Between Marx and Muhammad: The Changing Face of Central Asia (London: HarperCollins Publishers, 1994)
5. Arthur Waldron, The Great Wall of China: From History to Myth (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990).
6. John Fairbank, China: A New History (Cambridge: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 1992)
7. James Millward, Beyond the Pass: Economy, Ethnicity, and Empire in Qing Central Asia, 1759-1864 (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1998).
8. Peter Hopkirk, The Great Game: The Struggle for Empire in Central Asia (Tokyo: Kodansha International, 1994)
9. Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Grand Chessboard (New York: Basic Books, 1997)
10. Samuel Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (New York: Simon & Schuster Cop, 1996)
11. P. Stobdan, China's Central Asian Dilemma, http://www.idsa-india.org/ an-jun8-7.html, 2001.
12. Zhongguo Waijiao (Beijing: Zhonghua Renmingongheguo Waijiaobu, Shijie Zhishi Zhufashe, 2001-2003).
13. Xinjiang has the fourth largest Turkic population in the world after Turkey (53.6 million), Iran (35 million Azeri's) and Uzbekistan (23 million): See Graham Fueller and Fredrik Starr, The Xinjiang Problem (Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Johns Hopkins University, 2003), p. 9.
14. China moreover has approximately 20 million Muslims, which is more than most Middle Eastern states harbour, excluding Iran, Turkey and Egypt: see Dru Gladney, 'Islam in China: Accommodation or separatism', The China Quarterly, (July 2003), p. 451.
15. As late as during the reign of Lenin and the early days of the PRC, the Central Asian states and Xinjiang where an integrated cultural entity fighting external foes - China and the Soviet Union. Linda Benson, The Illi Rebellion: The Moslem Challenge to Chinese Authority in Xinjiang, 1944-1949 (Armonk: M.E. Sharpe, Inc, 1990)
16. Peter Hopkirk, Setting the East Ablaze: Lenin's Dream of an Empire in Asia (Tokyo: Kodansha International, 1995).
17. Gladney, 'Islam in China', p. 457
18. Turkistan Newsletter, (15 November 2001).
19. Fueller and Starr, The Xinjiang Problem, p. 19.
20. Niklas Swanström, 'China conquers Central Asia through trade', Analyst (Johns Hopkins University, SAIS, Wednesday 11 April 2001)
21. Niklas Swanström and Svante Cornell, 'China's trepidation in Afghanistan', Analyst (Johns Hopkins University, SAIS, 10 October 2001).
22. Stobdan, China's Central Asian Dilemma.
23. Terrorism, separatists, freedom fighters and rebels will be used interchangeably in the text. The purpose of the article is not to determine what status different organizations have, but to discuss an eventual impact from such organizations on the relationship between China and Central Asia, if it has an impact.
24. Ibid.
25. interviews with senior military officials claim that the increase of military staff ranges from a 30 to a 50% increase since the Yanda campaign was initiated in 1998. This should be seen in comparison to the reduction of border forces against Russia and the Central Asian states: Chinese Foreign Ministry, 'Summit meetings among China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan', (22 February 2004), http://www.chinaembassy.ee/eng/5715.html. The forces that were dismantled in the border region could have been redeployed in Xinjiang proper and directed towards rebels rather than external enemies.
26. Xinhua News Agency, (9 November 2001).
27. The US has put the East Turkestan Islamic Movement on its terrorist list, and in August 2002 the Bush Administration decided to freeze the group's assets in the US: See Kerry Dumbaugh, 'China-US relations', Issue Brief for Congress (Library of Congress, 31 January 2003).
28. China and the US Administration have argued that the group has clear links to terrorism and to Al Qaida, but some experts, such as Dru Gladney, are less convinced about this and the activity of the group is difficult to assess: See 'Uighurs charge US with betrayal', New York Times, (13 September 2002)
29. Andrew Chang, 'China connection', ABC News, (24 February 2004).
30. Rabi-us-Saani, (5 July 2000)
31. South China Morning Post, (4 July 2000)
32. John Daly, 'Shanghai Five expands to combat Islamic radicals', Jane's, (19 July 2001)
33. Catherine Davis, 'China-Kyrgyz anti-terror exercises', BBC News, (10 October 2002)
34. 'China, Russia, Central Asia PMs meet on cooperation', China Daily, (23 September 2003).
35. Francesco Sisci, 'China, US and the new world order', Asia Times, (19 September 2001)
36. 'Beijing's Central Asia strategy', Jane's Intelligence Digest, (2 October 2003)
37. Information Office of State Council (21 January 2002).
38. 'Statement by the Foreign Minister', Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs Homepage, (19 December 2001).
39. It should, however, be pointed out that the traffic in small arms is so large that even without Chinese sales it would still be no problem to arm the Uighur rebels.
40. 'Musharraf shores up ties with "trusted friend"', South China Morning Post, (12 December 2001).
41. '"Shanghai Five" nations sign joint statement', Renmin Ribao, (6 July 2000)
42. Abbas Najam, Shanghai Forum Calls for Institutionalized Efforts against Terrorism, Extremism and Crime (Dushanbe: Institute for the Study of Conflict, Ideology and Policy, 2000).
43. Stobdan, China's Central Asian Dilemma.
44. Ibid.
45. Svante Cornell and Niklas Swanström, 'China unnerved with war: West so close to its door', Baltimore Sun, (23 October 2001).
46. Guangcheng Xing, 'The Shanghai Cooperation Organization in the fight against terrorism, extremism, and separatism', Central Asia and the Caucasus no. 2, (2002)
47. 'China-Kyrgyz anti-terror exercises', BBC, (10 October 2002).
48. Chinese Foreign Ministry, 'Summit meetings among China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan'.
49. Niklas Swanström, 'China and Central Asia: The Great Game', International Studies no. 2 (Stockholm: Utrikespolitiska Institutet, 2001, in Swedish)
50. Dmitri Plenseev, 'Kyrgyz border pact with China stirs tension in Bishkek', Eurasianet, (17 May 2002).
51. Niklas Swanström, 'Hu supports the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?', The Times of Central Asia, (19 June 2003).
52. For readings about the historical factors see: Millward, Beyond the Pass;
53. and Morris Rossabi, China Among Equals: The Middle Kingdom and its Neighbours, 10th-14th Centuries (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1983).
54. Sichuan has declared that they have increased their trade by 13 times the figure for the previous year (2001) and China Petroleum Corp has pledged about HK$31 billion to invest in Kazakhstan: See 'SW China provinces eyes Central Asian market', Xinhua News Agency, (9 June 2003)
55. 'Foreign minister urges Chinese businessmen to invest in Kazakhstan', BBC Monitoring Central Asia, (11 May 2002).
56. 'Central Asian nations may prefer USA to Russia', Biznes i Politika, (18 January 2002)
57. Oleg Sidorov,'Priorities of the Beijing foreign politics in XXI century', Gazeta, (9 February 2004)
58. Sattorov Abdunabi, 'Central Asia in the XXI century: Problems of peace and security', Information Research Center, (26 February 2004), http://www.assamblea.kg/em17-2_3.htm.
59. Millward, Beyond the Pass.
60. 'Kazakh leader seeks to increase trade with China', BBC Monitoring Asia Pacific, (3 June 2003)
61. 'SINOPEC taps into Kazakhstan', Chinese Business Information Network, (12 March 2003).
62. Swanström, 'China conquers Central Asia through trade'.
63. Sergei Troush, China's Changing Oil Strategy and its Foreign Policy Implications, CNAPS Working Paper (The Brookings Institution, 1 July 1999), http://www.brook.edu/fpcnaps/papers/1999_troush.htlm.
64. Xiaojie Xu, Oil and Gas Linkages between Central Asia and China, (18 July 2000), http://riceinfo.rice.edu/projects/baker/publications/ xuchina/xuchina.html.
65. 'China to invest in Kyrgyz oil, gas sector', BBC Monitoring Central Asia, (31 May 2002)
66. Sinopec taps into Kazakhstan', China Business Information Network, (12 March 2003).
67. World Energy Outlook (Paris: International Energy Agency, 1995; 2001).
68. Gladney, 'Islam in China', pp. 458-459.
69. Troush, China's Changing Oil Strategy and its Foreign Policy Implications.
70. Mike Berniker, 'China's hunger for Central Asian energy', Asia Times, (11 June 2003).
71. Constitution of the People's Republic of China (adopted on 4 December 1982).
72. Swanström, 'China conquers Central Asia through trade'.
73. The war against terrorism has increased the US presence in Central Asia and US ambassador Lynn Pascoe has argued for close cooperation with the Central Asian states, both on a political level as well as on the military level (Heritage Foundation, 30 August 2002). There is an increased reluctance from both China and Russia with regard to the increased US military presence in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, regardless that it is still very limited and is far from a security concern for any of the states in the region: See Hooman Peimani, 'American military presence in Central Asia antagonizes Russia', Analyst, (23 October 2003)
74. Ahmed Rashid, 'Russia, China warily watch for American intrusions in Central Asia', Eurasia Insights, (18 February 2004).
75. Stobdan, China's Central Asian Dilemma.
76. Swanström, 'China conquers Central Asia through trade'.
77. Xinhua News Agency, (27 May 2003).
78. Niklas Swanström, 'Chinese business interest in Central Asia: A quest for dominance', Analyst, (Johns Hopkins University, SAIS, 18 June 2003).
79. 'SW China province eyes Central Asian markets', Xinhua News Agency, (9 June 2003).
80. Stephen Blank, 'The arming of Central Asia', Asia Times, (23 August 2002).
81. Antoine Blua, 'Central Asia: Militarization could come at cost of regional stability', Radio Free Europe, (3 September 2002)
82. Blank, 'The arming of Central Asia'.
83. 'Central Asia's Great Game turned on its head', Reuters, (25 September 2001)
84. Stuart Parott, 'Central Asia: Powers replay Great Game', Radio Free Europe, (1998).
85. Russia is not so weak militarily in the region, as its internal situation would prescribe. Russian military forces largely operate Tajikistan's security and border controls, as Tajikistan has no effective control over its territory today. Russia would, however, prefer to limit its troops in Tajikistan as the costs are too high for the Russian economy to swallow and the moral of the Russian troops is very low, with drug smuggling and criminality among its troops corrupting the forces.
86. Swanström, 'China and Central Asia: The Great Game'
87. Troush, China's Changing Oil Strategy and its Foreign Policy Implications.
88. The US purpose in the short-term is to secure bases to fight the Taliban and expand their alliances with Muslim states. Over the longer time-span the Americans would like to create anti-fundamentalist and pro-American governments. It is obvious that both China and Russia will try to resist the creation of pro-American governments in Central Asia.
89. Daly, 'Shanghai Five expands to combat Islamic radicals';
90. Davis, 'China-Kyrgyz anti-terror exercises';
91. Charles Carlson, Central Asia: Shanghai Cooperation Organization Makes Military Debut, (5 August 2003), http://www.rferl.org/features/2003/08/ 05082003154708.asp.
92. 'Russia using the United States as a buffer in Central Asia: Russia is unlikely to retain its influence in Central Asia', Nezavisimaya Gazeta, (30 April 2003).
93. US State Department (18 February 2004), http://usembassy.state.gov/posts/ pk1/wwwh02041803.html;
94. US State Department (18 February 2004), http://www.state.gov/secretary/ rm/2002/9713.htm;
95. 'The Pakistan factor in India-US relations: A discussion with Venu Rajmony', CSIS, (29 November 2001).
96. 'Central Asian nations may prefer USA to Russia', Biznes I Politika, (18 January 2002)
97. Hamish Robertson, 'China and US develop relations', The World Today Archive, (14 November 2001).
98. S. D. Mundi, 'The emerging Cold War in Asia: India's options', Strategic Analysis, (March 1997)
99. Joe Varner, China's Superpower Challenge (Defense Associations Institute, 20 March 1999), http://cda-cdai.ca/symposia/1999_troush.htlm.
100. See Andrew Scobell and Larry Wortzel, eds, China's Growing Military Power: Perspectives on Security, Ballistic Missiles, and Conventional Capabilities (Carlisle: Strategic Studies Institute, 2002)
101. Gordon Chang, The Coming Collapse of China (New York: Random House, 2001)
102. David Lampton, ed., The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2001)
103. Samuel Kim, ed., China and the World (Boulder: Westview Press, 1998, 4th edn).
104. For more information concerning Southeast Asia see: Niklas Swanström, Foreign Devils, Dictatorship or Institutional Control: China's Foreign Policy in Southeast Asia (Uppsala: Uppsala University, 2001).
105. 'SINOPEC taps into Kazakhstan', China Business Information Network, (12 March 2003)
106. 'Moves to open up trade links;
107. Kazakhstan after easier access', South China Morning Post, (11 May 2002).